Comment on Beta from Accuweather

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N2FSU
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Comment on Beta from Accuweather

#1 Postby N2FSU » Thu Oct 27, 2005 1:47 pm

Saw this today (not in JB's column):

There is a chance that Beta remains off the coast of Nicaragua and eventually gets picked up by a trough of low pressure moving into the southern part of our country. If that were to occur, Beta could end up heading north and affecting Cuba and southern Florida.
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#2 Postby terstorm1012 » Thu Oct 27, 2005 2:16 pm

There was one model (forget which one) that picked that up. He's merely stating what the model saw.
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#3 Postby brunota2003 » Thu Oct 27, 2005 2:16 pm

Was it the UKMet???
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#4 Postby WxGuy1 » Thu Oct 27, 2005 2:33 pm

brunota2003 wrote:Was it the UKMet???


No, the Canadian / CMC most likely.
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#5 Postby brunota2003 » Thu Oct 27, 2005 2:34 pm

Oh, ok...
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#6 Postby DoctorHurricane2003 » Thu Oct 27, 2005 2:37 pm

The LBAR and UKMET both picked it up, according to the latest map in the TS Beta thread.
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#7 Postby terstorm1012 » Thu Oct 27, 2005 2:39 pm

I think (and a promet can confirm this) is that there's a weakness that could develop north of Beta which would allow the latest trough in the Southeast to pick it up. Just making a guess there though.
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#8 Postby DoctorHurricane2003 » Thu Oct 27, 2005 2:41 pm

I don't know...I do not believe the current trough is strong enough to pick it up...it depends on how strong the ridge builds in, but it may just drift northwestward for a while
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#9 Postby Brent » Thu Oct 27, 2005 2:47 pm

DoctorHurricane2003 wrote:I don't know...I do not believe the current trough is strong enough to pick it up...it depends on how strong the ridge builds in, but it may just drift northwestward for a while


I don't think so either.
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#10 Postby terstorm1012 » Thu Oct 27, 2005 2:50 pm

So are those models making the weakness...um...too pronounced?
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#11 Postby DoctorHurricane2003 » Thu Oct 27, 2005 2:54 pm

Most likely. Most always you can discount the LBAR solution anyways. It is rarely correct, especially in the extenuating circumstances of this timeframe.
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