The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or 
Winter Outlook for North Texas 2005-06:
The Dallas/Fort Worth Metroplex is located in north central Texas, approximately 250 miles (400 km) north of the Gulf of Mexico. It is near the headwaters of the Trinity River, which lie in the upper margins of the Coastal Plain. The rolling hills in the area range from 500 to 800 feet (150 to 240 m) in elevation.
Let's begin with the past 6 months and the record drought that NTX is experiencing. As of October 27, 2005 we are 12+ inches below the normal average of rainfall for the year that includes the -3.45” for the month of October, which is normaly our wettest month during fall. We also had our warmest September on record (avg. daily high 95.2, low 72.2) and recorded our hottest day of the year at 104 on September 28. The hot weather continued into the first week of October with highs in the lower to mid 90’s. The first real cool front of the fall season made it’s way into NTX Oct. 7 giving us a high temp of 70 degrees, and the first real Cold front blew in Oct. 23 dropping our high’s into the upper 40’s to lower 50’s with a gusty North wind and giving us our first readings in the 30’s for lows. So let’s take a look at the coming winter and see what might be in store for North Texas.
No El Nino/La Nina is expected this winter.
THE TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK FOR NOVEMBER-DECEMBER-JANUARY (NDJ) 2005-06 CALLS FOR
WARMER-THAN-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN UNITED STATES-
INCLUDING ALASKA AND HAWAII.
THE NORTHWEST- THE GREAT PLAINS - MIDWEST- THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST AND THE EAST COAST HAVE EQUAL CHANCES OF WARMER-THAN... COOLER-THAN OR NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS WINTER.
THE PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK FOR NDJ CALLS FOR WETTER-THAN-NORMAL CONDITIONS ACROSS
MOST OF ARKANSAS, LOUISIANA AND EASTERN TEXAS.
DRIER-THAN-NORMAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST FROM NEW MEXICO TO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.
ENSO Region Matches (September 2005 + Last 3 Months:
Such matches can help determine whether the most recent ENSO conditions are consistent with the longer-term ENSO situation that has prevailed and is likely for the coming winter.
PDO-ENSO years
http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~mantua/TABLES2.html
The winters for the 10 most similar matches were:
Significant North Texas Snow Events during those years
DFW - Annual and Monthly Freezing Days:
1952-53 - Fewest Number of Freezes by Season: 15, ranked 4th
1960-61
January 27-28, 1961 - There was widespread 1-3 inch accumulation over much of north Texas with this event, but a small area of 4-6 inches was reported from Dublin to Mineral Wells to Bridgeport, and from Hico to Cleburne to Waxahachie to Kaufman.
1962-63
1966-67 - Greatest Number of Freezes by Season: 48, tied for 9th
1977-78- Greatest Number of Freezes by Season: 62, ranked #1
Greatest Number of Freezes by Month: January 1978, 27, ranked #1
February 17, 1978 - The last in a series of five snow events that began in mid-January also had the greatest totals. Between 4-8 inches fell from Throckmorton to Gainesville, and north of a line through Dublin, Cleburne, Terrell, and Sulphur Springs.
1980-81
1990-91
1992-93 – Fewest Number of Freezes by Season: 17, ranked 5th
2001-02
February 5-6, 2002 - Snow fell over the northern sections of north Texas from the late morning of the 5th to the early morning hours of the 6th. Between 4-5 inches accumulation were reported from Gainesville to Paris, and from McKinney to Greenville to Cooper. Elsewhere, 1-3 inches were the rule.
2003-04
February 14, 2004 - Between 2-5 inches of snow were widespread over the northern half of north Texas. The event began during the early morning hours, and generally ended by midday over the metroplex.
DFW - Winter Season Temperature Extremes
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/fwd/CLIMO/dfw/monthly/dwinter.html
November – Look for average temps or above and below average precipitation for the first half of the month (1st-15th). I think by mid month we will see above normal temps for a few days (4 to 5) and a good chance of rain. Look for a strong cold front just before Thanksgiving and our first official freeze of the year (Average Date of First Freeze - November 17). November may finish up with below normal temps and a chance of rain.
November Recap – November (3rd-9th) and (12th-14th) temps avg above to much above normal with no precip. November (16th-22nd) temps avg about 5 degrees below normal each day with a trace of rain on the 15th, 19th and 20th. A cold front on the 16th dropped temps to the lower 50’s and the first official freeze of the season was recorded at D/FW Airport with a low of 32 on the 17th, which just so happens to be the avg date of our first freeze. However many of the counties to the north and west of Dallas recorded freezes of 28 or lower on the 16th, 17th, 18th , and another cold front on the 20th brought another freeze to most everyone in NTX on the 21st. however the official low at D/FW did not reach 32. The month ended with a nice steady rain on the morning of the 26th with temps in the mid 60’s. The 27th saw us hit a high of 81 with gusty strong winds from the SW then turning to from the NW as another cold front came into the area and drop high’s to the mid 50’s Monday and Tuesday and another freeze Wednesday morning across the area.
November 2005 averaged out to about 4 degrees Above normal for the month and we still face a severe drought as only 0.02” of rain was officially recorded at D/FW Airport (-2.47” for the month). The rainfall on the 26th was much heavier to the south and east of the airport where many people recorded up to .50”.
December – A cool and wet start to the month will soon be replaced with normal or above temps and will be quit windy. By the middle of December another strong cold front with sharply colder temps will bring us highs in the upper 40’s and a few nights of freezing temps. By Christmas temps will be back to normal and also bring a chance of rain. The last week of 2005 may bring yet another cold front by New Years Eve and with it a chance of freezing precip, but don’t look for anything major, maybe a light dusting of snow or some light sleet.
January - Starts off cold with slightly below avg temps (1-4) then a warm up with normal to above temps. A Polar front of very cold air will put us in a deep freeze by the 2nd week "Mcfarland Effect" with highs not getting above freezing for a few days (20’s). As the Polar air mass pushes east it will be replaced with a pacific front bringing milder temps (lower 50’s) and a cold rain. By the 25th temps will be back to normal or above to close out the month.
February – Will start out with above normal temps and little precip for the first week. By the second week of Feb look for a Major Cold spell (7-10) with below avg temps, may see highs in the mid to upper 30’s and a chance of frozen precip. The past 2 years Valentines Day has brought snow to NTX, but not this year. But a Storm system in the Rockies will push down across NTX late in Feb. (19-21) and with it, bring a late season snow across much of NTX. (2-5”)
Well there you have in a "NUT" shell, only time and Old Man Winter can tell what’s going to happen, but that’s my Story and I'm sticking to it!
Happy Autumn to everyone out there!!
Peace!!
Christopher aka. “CaptinCrunch”
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