Tropical Wave at Caribbean

[Nimbus]

Looks like Beta and the wave will be on opposite sides of the high that is building over the area.

Since Beta already has a good circulation I doubt it will be influenced much by the wave in the short term.

The real impressive convection burst this morning south of Haiti would need to persist for this to develop.

[cycloneye]

ABNT20 KNHC 281516
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT FRI OCT 28 2005

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM BETA... LOCATED IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ABOUT
45 MILES NORTHEAST OF SAN ANDRES ISLAND.

WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A WESTWARD MOVING TROPICAL WAVE.
THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION AT THIS TIME...AND THIS SYSTEM
MAY BE ABSORBED INTO TROPICAL STORM BETA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
SATURDAY.

FORECASTER BEVEN



11:30 AM TWO.

[cycloneye]

Bump.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

WHOA!!!! HOLY SMOKES!!!!

[WindRunner]

I think this could end up going a little north of Beta and have a slight chance of forming a depression that would quickly head north, like Alpha, but further west.

[WxGuy1]

Her convection isn't very organized at this time. We see this many times a season, and if the convection can't centralize, you don't end up with organized pressure falls and cyclone development. I think this area does have a slight chance of developing, given the intensity of some of the convection, but it'll need to organize more if it has a chance of becoming a TD.

[fci]

I think the greek letter storms are "its" not "her's" or "hims".

[cycloneye]

EAST/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE ROUGHLY ALONG 67W S OF 20N
MOVING W 10-15 KT. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY ACTUALLY SUGGESTS
THAT THE WAVE MAY HAVE A STRONG NE/SW TILT NOTED BY A LINE OF
TSTMS EXTENDING FROM THE MONA PASSAGE SW TO THE GUAJIRA
PENINSULA OF COLOMBIA. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
EXTENDS FROM 16N-20N BETWEEN 65W-70W STRETCHING FROM THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS ACROSS PUERTO RICO TO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. NUMEROUS
MODERATE IS FROM 12N-19N BETWEEN 69W-75W MAINLY FROM HAITI SWD.

WEST CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 78W S OF 19N MOVING W 10 KT.
THE SIGNATURE OF THE WAVE IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY DIFFUSE AS IT
BECOMES INCORPORATED INTO THE CIRCULATION OF T.S. BETA.
THEREFORE...THE WAVE WILL BE REMOVED ON THE 0000 UTC ANALYSIS.


8 PM Discussion.

There are two waves in the caribbean but no signs of organization.

[cycloneye]

ABNT20 KNHC 290233
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 PM EDT FRI OCT 28 2005

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM BETA... LOCATED IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA VERY NEAR
THE ISLAND OF PROVIDENCIA.

A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS CENTERED BETWEEN COLOMBIA AND
JAMAICA IS ASSOCIATED WITH A WESTWARD MOVING TROPICAL WAVE. THIS
SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BRING A FEW SQUALLS TO JAMAICA AND THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS IN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION
BUT THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR DEVELOPMENT. THERE IS
ALSO A POSSIBILITY THAT THIS AREA COULD BECOME ABSORBED INTO
TROPICAL STORM BETA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
SSUNDAY.

FORECASTER AVILA


10:30 PM TWO.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Very wild...two systems in close proximities...2005 is certainly in
BANG mode this late in the season....

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

I think development is possible as shear decreases. Beta
and Gamma in close proximity...might get some crazy
fujiwara out of that...

[Hyperstorm]

The tropical wave over the Caribbean did not develop a better structure despite of the relatively favorable environment it was embedded in, with an area of high pressure located near Cuba. It does, however, have two sets of moisture, with one located just north of Beta and another one near Jamaica.

Unfortunately, the one north of Beta associated with the tropical wave will likely exacerbate the flooding potential for northern Nicaragua and particularly Honduras. This set of moisture from the tropical wave could turn out deadlier than the core of the hurricane itself because of the training effect of the cyclone's outer circulation (the tropical wave is energizing the rainfall potential).

It appears that all of this late-season energy in the Caribbean will be entrained into the developing shortwave in the Gulf of Mexico during the day Tuesday and Wednesday as the GFS shows. Unfortunately, this could be the recipe for some very squally and severe weather across some parts of Florida during the middle part of the week.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Unfortunately, this could be the recipe for some very squally and severe weather across some parts of Florida during the middle part of the week.

Well, apart from the severe weather-- After the driest summer *ever*
for Tampa Bay-
YES!!! IT'S GOING TO RAIN FINALLY! We got 2-3 inches with Wilma-
Wilma's rainband provided the ONLY thunderstorm I have had
the entire summer....before Wilma we had no significant rain since June 2005.

[Hyperstorm]

Unfortunately, this could be the recipe for some very squally and severe weather across some parts of Florida during the middle part of the week.

Well, apart from the severe weather-- After the driest summer *ever*
for Tampa Bay-
YES!!! IT'S GOING TO RAIN FINALLY! We got 2-3 inches with Wilma-
Wilma's rainband provided the ONLY thunderstorm I have had
the entire summer....before Wilma we had no significant rain since June 2005.

That's very impressive, Tampa Bay Hurricane. Kind of ironic knowing that Tampa area is generally referred to as the lightning capital of Florida (and the USA for that matter).

Fortunately for us in north central Florida, the drought did not extend this far and we received a good dosing of shower and thunderstorm acitivity all summer...

[gatorcane]

Singapore is another Lightning capital