The quote of the year

[thermos]

This is either global warming or a cycle we have not seen for hundreds of years or both. Now that this pattern is here it is here to stay. Perhaps 25 storms a year with 3 or 4 Cat 5s is now the new normal.

[WxGuy1]

This is either global warming or a cycle we have not seen for hundreds of years or both. Now that this pattern is here it is here to stay. Perhaps 25 storms a year with 3 or 4 Cat 5s is now the new normal.

How do we know it's the new normal if we've only had one season that way? Yes last year was busy as well, but you are suggesting that this current year is the 'norm' from here on out. I think we need to give it 5-10 years before we can accurately say that. Even at that, we're in a known increase in the multidecadal pattern in tropical cyclone activity. This season is remarkable, but remember that we've been coming off of a few decades of relatively quiet Atlantic tropical years, thus making the past 5-7 years seem particularly active.

[thermos]

This is either global warming or a cycle we have not seen for hundreds of years or both. Now that this pattern is here it is here to stay. Perhaps 25 storms a year with 3 or 4 Cat 5s is now the new normal.

How do we know it's the new normal if we've only had one season that way? Yes last year was busy as well, but you are suggesting that this current year is the 'norm' from here on out. I think we need to give it 5-10 years before we can accurately say that. Even at that, we're in a known increase in the multidecadal pattern in tropical cyclone activity. This season is remarkable, but remember that we've been coming off of a few decades of relatively quiet Atlantic tropical years, thus making the past 5-7 years seem particularly active.

Yup I am suggestion this is the norm from here on out. But you are right to allow a few more years of data. However, if we get this season repeated for another 5-10 more years there won't be much left of the coastal cities. I disagree that this is a "known increase" -- there is nothing like this season on the records. It is either a cycle we are unaware from prior records from hundreds of years ago or global warming or both.

We don't know what is going on. Next year could even be worse than this year.

[WxGuy1]

I disagree that this is a "known increase" -- there is nothing like this season on the records. It is either a cycle we are unaware from prior records from hundreds of years ago or global warming or both.

We don't know what is going on. Next year could even be worse than this year.

I didn't mean to imply that this year is to be expected. This year is obviously smashing many records, namely the most Cat 5s in a season, and the most number of named storms in a year. However, we've known for many years that there is a semi-well defined multidecadal pattern... Tropical activity was was on the inactive side of the pattern in the 1965-1995 years, and it's in the active phase now. I'm just saying that the relatively inactive years of the 80s and early 90s make the past several years especially active. And it's important to remember that regardless of the total number of named storms period, you only need one "biggie" to wreak havoc (i.e. Andrew in 92).

[thunderchief]

there is nothing like this season on the records.

really, our proper records dont go back that all that far. One has to wonder exactly what the nature of offshore storms were in years before the age of recon and satellites.

[gotoman38]

there is nothing like this season on the records.

really, our proper records dont go back that all that far. One has to wonder exactly what the nature of offshore storms were in years before the age of recon and satellites.

or continent drift for that matter

A Psychoalpha­discobetabioa­quadoloop

[arcticfire]

I still don't buy the whole cycle theory. It's great on paper but there has not been enough observation to really call a section of a complex chaotic system a pattern imho.

I'm a firm beliver that GW is affecting the tropics. My personal opinon is the most likly result will be and end to hurricain "season" and the storms become a year round event. I don't think thats something people really consider and in my opinon they should.