Hurricane BETA Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[tampaflwx]

when will the GFDL finally realize that it's wrong and needs to correct itself? it is like a stubborn little kid.

[cjrciadt]

http://www.cira.colostate.edu/RAMM/Rmsdsol/TROPICAL.html
Impressive Visible

[CHRISTY]

this season has been incredible... hurricane after hurricane truly unbelivable!

[tampaflwx]

I expect most of the models to trend more northerly over the weekend.

Looks like a double hurricane:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... IR4/20.jpg

Forecaster Beven had noted in yesterday's 5PM discussion that

A NET NORTHWESTWARD SHIFT OF THE CLOUD MASS MAY BE A PRECURSOR OF THE EXPECTED NORTHWESTWARD TURN.

Currently it appears, as dixiebreeze pointed out, that Beta is shifting her cloud mass toward the north ... could this indicate a more northward track than previously anticipated?

[ronjon]

Wow, I thought after Wilma we'd be done for the season. Apparently this one will go down to the last week in November or later. Beta, Beta, Beta...Well, the BAMD model has now joined the UKMET, the crazy LBAR, and the NHC98A (climate model?) which meander the storm NW and then eventually into the GOM. The new 06Z GFS now has a piece of the storm splitting off to the north and showing a weak closed circulation migrating up to Tampa. Looks like that at the very least, a slug of mositure will get pulled north into FL ahead of a approaching trough that will be diving down into the north coast of the GOM on Wednesday. If, and a big if, Beta can clip the NE coast of Central America and continue on into the western Caribbean I think that spells trouble down the road for FL. Not sure how much development we'd see this time of year, especially with GOM temps cooling somewhat, but I could see a TS.

http://bricker.met.psu.edu/~arnottj/cgi ... =Animation

[jkt21787]

The most FL will see from this is remnant moisture, nothing organized tropically.

[jkt21787]

New NHC forecast says this could very well be a major hurricane at landfall (though is currently not forecasted). This seems very reasonable.

Also, FWIW, even the CMC (Canadian) has now backed off the north movement. It now indicates a movement near or just south of where NHC puts it, and cotninues moving it west. No threat to Cuba, the Yucatan, and FL.

Also, someone earlier mentioned the UKMET putting this in the GOM. I'd like to see that output, because the UKMET I'm looking at takes this to the southern Yucatan grazing just north of the Honduran Coast.

So, the only models indicating any DIRECT threat to FL or surrounding areas are, as usual, the LBAR, 98E, CLIPER, XTRAP, and now slighly BAMD. I'll leave those model names stand for themselves and let others make their own judgements.

[cycloneye]

SOME OF THE DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH BETA
MAY GET DRAWN INTO A DEVELOPING WINTER-TYPE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

FORECASTER BEVEN

The above from 11 AM Discussion.That is what the US may see from what will be left of Beta.

[jkt21787]

SOME OF THE DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH BETA
MAY GET DRAWN INTO A DEVELOPING WINTER-TYPE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

FORECASTER BEVEN

The above from 11 AM Discussion.That is what the US may see from what will be left of Beta.

Good job, Luis. I meant to bring that up. The key word there is "winter-type". Not tropical. This should help draw up some of the moisture with Beta or its remnants, but whatever happens in FL will not be a direct result of Beta nor any other tropical feature.

[jenshops]

What is a "winter type low pressure"? Does that mean Florida will get a stronger than normal cold front?

[bombarderoazul]

Looks like CA will see hundreds killed in mudslides and landslides. Stan showed what a cat 1 can do.

Let's hope the governments of Nicaragua and Honduras warn their people about this coming disaster.

[Brent]

What is a "winter type low pressure"? Does that mean Florida will get a stronger than normal cold front?

Non-tropical. Like a nor-easter.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Regarding the BAMD indication of the future path of what will likely
be a Winter-Type Low:
BAMD has shifted north and wants to
take this into the GOM. The BAM's have some
credibility south of 20 N, meaning they lose it above 20 N, but that fact makes this forecast a tricky one...central america
and gom avenues are both possibilities- it's
even possible the storm may do both if
BAMD verifies...I start to doubt bams above
20 N, but because it appears to be picking
up on the trough expected to dive into the GOM, I give it a little more credibility. So a BAMD shift to the SE GOM this latest model
run is something to monitor very closely. A winter type
low may enter the GOM if this run of BAMD were to verify.

Again, BAMD usually fails to initialize troughs
well when it forecasts above 20 N, but this time it has initialized the trough, and thus lends itself to greater credibility. Its path prediction based on its trough initialization is also somewhat disconcerting for SE GOM and S. FL in terms of a possible winter low pressure area.
But again it's five days out and a lot of things can change, but the latest BAMD shift is an indication of a possibility with a larger than normal level of BAM-Credibility behind it due to its acknowledgement of the GOM trough.

If some Beta-Remnant enters the GOM it will likely be a winter-type low pressure area that could produce strong, cold winds and cold rain on its
northern side...kind of like a nor-easter....but add some severe
thunderstorms to the south and eastern side if we see a sharp
temperature gradient develop about the Beta-Remnants.

[WxGuy1]

Note the decent upper-level low forecast to cut-ff develop in the extreme northern Gulf in 84+ hours. This low will open into a wave and become progressive a day or so after this. DPVA and weaker low-level WAA will induce surface pressure falls over this area, leading to the development of a an extratropical low in this area. At this time, this certainly doesn't look like a Nor'Easter situation.

Note that the NAM puts the cut-off low over central Texas, not the northern Gulf coast and would not support the idea of a low developing in the northeastern Gulf. The NAM is terrible in tropical cyclone situations, but this is not a tropical cyclone situation. As noted in HPC discussions, model consistency is poor with the upper-level pattern in 3-5 days, with some runs and GFS ensemble members indicating a more potent east coast low, though the majority of models indicating a weaker surface pattern.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Hazardous Weather Outlook
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
440 AM EDT SAT OCT 29 2005

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-291600-
LEVY-CITRUS-SUMTER-HERNANDO-PASCO-PINELLAS-HILLSBOROUGH-POLK-
MANATEE-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-SARASOTA-DE SOTO-CHARLOTTE-LEE-
440 AM EDT SAT OCT 29 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA AND WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

FOR MARINERS: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT. SUSTAINED WINDS
WILL BE AROUND 20 KNOTS ESPECIALLY THIS MORNING AND AGAIN THIS
EVENING. SEAS WILL APPROACH 7 FEET BEYOND 40 NM OUT...AND EXCEED 7
FEET BEYOND 60 NM.

OTHERWISE...FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20 KNOTS OR GREATER AND SEAS OF 7 FEET OR
HIGHER WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY MORNING AND AGAIN SUNDAY EVENING OVER
THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES INTO
SUNDAY.

A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY AFFECT THE NORTHEASTERN
GULF TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. SHOULD THIS DISTURBANCE TRACK AS
CURRENTLY FORECAST...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY AS IT
APPROACHES THE SUNCOAST OR NATURE COAST. TROPICAL MOISTURE PULLED
INTO THE SYSTEM COMBINED WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL WIND DIRECTION
AND SPEED SHEAR MAY INCREASE THE THREAT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

[tampaflwx]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Regarding the BAMD indication of the future path of what will likely
be a Winter-Type Low:
BAMD has shifted north and wants to
take this into the GOM. The BAM's have some
credibility south of 20 N, meaning they lose it above 20 N, but that fact makes this forecast a tricky one...central america
and gom avenues are both possibilities- it's
even possible the storm may do both if
BAMD verifies...I start to doubt bams above
20 N, but because it appears to be picking
up on the trough expected to dive into the GOM, I give it a little more credibility. So a BAMD shift to the SE GOM this latest model
run is something to monitor very closely. A winter type
low may enter the GOM if this run of BAMD were to verify.

Again, BAMD usually fails to initialize troughs
well when it forecasts above 20 N, but this time it has initialized the trough, and thus lends itself to greater credibility. Its path prediction based on its trough initialization is also somewhat disconcerting for SE GOM and S. FL in terms of a possible winter low pressure area.
But again it's five days out and a lot of things can change, but the latest BAMD shift is an indication of a possibility with a larger than normal level of BAM-Credibility behind it due to its acknowledgement of the GOM trough.

If some Beta-Remnant enters the GOM it will likely be a winter-type low pressure area that could produce strong, cold winds and cold rain on its
northern side...kind of like a nor-easter....but add some severe
thunderstorms to the south and eastern side if we see a sharp
temperature gradient develop about the Beta-Remnants.

solid analysis/commentary on the current BAMD forecast, excellent job!

[gatorcane]

All interests in the NW Caribbean and SE GOM should monitor closely the progress of Beta. I'm not buying a move across central America.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Regarding the BAMD indication of the future path of what will likely
be a Winter-Type Low:
BAMD has shifted north and wants to
take this into the GOM. The BAM's have some
credibility south of 20 N, meaning they lose it above 20 N, but that fact makes this forecast a tricky one...central america
and gom avenues are both possibilities- it's
even possible the storm may do both if
BAMD verifies...I start to doubt bams above
20 N, but because it appears to be picking
up on the trough expected to dive into the GOM, I give it a little more credibility. So a BAMD shift to the SE GOM this latest model
run is something to monitor very closely. A winter type
low may enter the GOM if this run of BAMD were to verify.

Again, BAMD usually fails to initialize troughs
well when it forecasts above 20 N, but this time it has initialized the trough, and thus lends itself to greater credibility. Its path prediction based on its trough initialization is also somewhat disconcerting for SE GOM and S. FL in terms of a possible winter low pressure area.
But again it's five days out and a lot of things can change, but the latest BAMD shift is an indication of a possibility with a larger than normal level of BAM-Credibility behind it due to its acknowledgement of the GOM trough.

If some Beta-Remnant enters the GOM it will likely be a winter-type low pressure area that could produce strong, cold winds and cold rain on its
northern side...kind of like a nor-easter....but add some severe
thunderstorms to the south and eastern side if we see a sharp
temperature gradient develop about the Beta-Remnants.

solid analysis/commentary on the current BAMD forecast, excellent job!

Thank you!
I am starting to get concerned about a serious severe weather outbreak
per the NWS Florida discussion about that GOM low pressure for Tues-Wednesday...

[wxmann_91]

As I've said before, Florida will not get much if any, either Beta dissipates in Central America or it recurves well east of Florida. There is no GOM option here.

[gatorcane]

I think as it moves into Central America, remnant energy north of Beta will organize into something tropical, that is, once the center of Beta stops disrupting the energy north of it.