My thoughts on rest of Hurricane Season...

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My thoughts on rest of Hurricane Season...

#1 Postby Anonymous » Sat Oct 29, 2005 6:58 am

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I don't want to seem alarmist...but I kind of have the feeling we might still have a November hurricane of significance. Something just seems that way...with the continued wet and on off low shear/high shear/low shear in the Atlantic Basin. For example, in Middle-October 2001, we had Hurricane Iris, which was a tiny, yet devestating Category 4 hurricane for Southern Belize. Then, in November, we had Hurricane Michelle, which was another devestating Category 4 Hurricane...this time, for Cuba.

I believe we could very well see a Hurricane Delta or a Hurricane Epsilon end the season with a bang...thats just my gut thought...then again, my gut did tell me the name "KATRINA" would be a 40 mph Tropical Storm into Florida.
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#2 Postby inotherwords » Sat Oct 29, 2005 7:09 am

Has anyone seen Dr. Gray's predictions for November yet? His October forecast was scarily accurate, as his whole season has been.

Frankly, I would not be surprised if we see storms this month, and maybe even a few that try to start up in December.
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#3 Postby cycloneye » Sat Oct 29, 2005 7:14 am

inotherwords wrote:Has anyone seen Dr. Gray's predictions for November yet? His October forecast was scarily accurate, as his whole season has been.

Frankly, I would not be surprised if we see storms this month, and maybe even a few that try to start up in December.


http://hurricane.atmos.colostate.edu/fo ... 5/oct2005/

Forthcoming 2005 Hurricane Activity Verification and Upcoming Forecasts



We will be issuing our forecast verification for the 2005 Atlantic basin hurricane season on Friday, November 19. The first forecast for the 2006 hurricane season will be issued on Tuesday, December 6.


inotherwords his october forecast was the last one of the season as you can see at link.
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#4 Postby inotherwords » Sat Oct 29, 2005 7:16 am

OK, thank you!

"Table 5 displays a summary of this year’s hurricane activity through September and our projection for the rest of the season. We expect October activity to be above its climatological average. We assume no activity in November. "

Hope he's right that this nightmare season is over now.
Last edited by inotherwords on Sat Oct 29, 2005 7:21 am, edited 1 time in total.
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#5 Postby Budro999 » Sat Oct 29, 2005 7:17 am

inotherwords wrote:Has anyone seen Dr. Gray's predictions for November yet? His October forecast was scarily accurate, as his whole season has been.

Frankly, I would not be surprised if we see storms this month, and maybe even a few that try to start up in December.


Wasn't Dr. Gray's forecast for October forecasting 3 named storms? This month has had 6 so far. Therefore, even though he predicted a relatively active October with respect to climatology, he still underforecast the number of storms for the month. Hopefully, November is not a repeat of October, but SSTs are still warm in the Caribbean, and the shear is still relatively low.
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#6 Postby inotherwords » Sat Oct 29, 2005 7:23 am

He predicted two hurricanes, with one intense hurricane. His overall named storm forecast number was in fact low, but I was judging it on the hurricanes.
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#7 Postby wxwatcher91 » Sat Oct 29, 2005 7:26 am

November............4-2-1
December............2-1-0
-----(goes on the 2006 record)-----
January................1-0-0

those are my thoughts.

with the way the season is going, that could be low... although some may argue that December into January is the same no matter what season.
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#8 Postby WindRunner » Sat Oct 29, 2005 8:08 am

wxwatcher91 wrote:November............4-2-1
December............2-1-0
-----(goes on the 2006 record)-----
January................1-0-0

those are my thoughts.

with the way the season is going, that could be low... although some may argue that December into January is the same no matter what season.


That would give us Theta in December! :eek: :eek:
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#9 Postby gatorcane » Sat Oct 29, 2005 12:32 pm

no way we will see Theta, if we do I'll be floored. 8-) :eek:
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#10 Postby Brent » Sat Oct 29, 2005 12:38 pm

WindRunner wrote:
wxwatcher91 wrote:November............4-2-1
December............2-1-0
-----(goes on the 2006 record)-----
January................1-0-0

those are my thoughts.

with the way the season is going, that could be low... although some may argue that December into January is the same no matter what season.


That would give us Theta in December! :eek: :eek:


:shocked!:

I need to freshen up on the Greek Alphabet beyond Delta...
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#11 Postby quandary » Sat Oct 29, 2005 1:14 pm

wxwatcher91 wrote:November............4-2-1
December............2-1-0
-----(goes on the 2006 record)-----
January................1-0-0

those are my thoughts.

with the way the season is going, that could be low... although some may argue that December into January is the same no matter what season.


I really would think that's impossible, just for timing issues. Basically, aside from maybe the one major that could form in the Carribbean in November, you're going to have to have 3 extratropical storms change over into tropical systems in November. That usually takes a really long time. And then 2 more in December, which is certainly possible (see 2003), but putting the two together is very much unlikely.

Also, transitioners are very hard to predict before hand and just because this is 2005 year of the tropics gone wild doesn't mean at all that it'll have those transitioners.
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#12 Postby KatDaddy » Sat Oct 29, 2005 2:23 pm

We did have two named storms last December but I doubt it would be that active.
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