UNOFFICIAL..Beta #7; CAT 3 landfall/Pacific possible

[ncweatherwizard]

Quote Storm2K:

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Quote Nencweather.com:
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Forecast 7:
http://www.nencweather.com/tropicalweat ... /beta.html

Given model guidance for 00Z, a fair possibility remains that this could re-emerge into the Pacific as something although maybe no more than a remnant low. However, after two to three days, the ridge will cease to push Beta westward, and it would have to move slowly northward into the weakness formed by a developing trough in a few days. The track does just barely put the storm over water in the Pacific basin, so the intensity is consistent with this track, but I do remain conservative later in the period, as only a few miles of error would keep the storm inland, and this possiblity remains just as reasonable.

Scott

[boca]

Enjoy reading your forecasts as always.What do you think about in their discussion of some of the moisture being entrained in a winter type low pressure over the Gulf of Mexico.Does that bring a huge rain event for Florida or don't you forsee that happening.

[ncweatherwizard]

Well, it certainly seems likely that some tropical moisture will be drawn up, but expect the most rain to fall farther north in the Deep South area--MS, AL, GA, maybe parts of TN, SC, or northern FL. That's on the northern side of the low, and that's where the moisture will be directed. Of course, the low hasn't even developed yet, but I wouldn't expect major rain event for Florida, but rather just rain, with a better chance of more rain the farther north in Florida you go.