Tropical Wave at Caribbean

Lutrastorm · #141 Postby **Lutrastorm** » Sat Oct 29, 2005 9:45 pm

dixiebreeze wrote:What happened to "Delta?"

greek is just a little different....

the list:

Alpha
Beta
Gamma
Delta
Epsilon
Zeta
Eta
Theta
Iota
Kappa
Lambda
Mu
Nu
Xi
Omicron
Pi
Rho
Sigma
Tau
Upsilon
Phi
Chi
Psi
Omega

lifted from:

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/posting.p ... &p=1061197

#142 Postby **WxGuy1** » Sat Oct 29, 2005 10:21 pm

hicksta wrote:BAMD Has this one nailed!!!

BAMS and BAMM usually work better than BAMD for tropical waves and tropical depression.

#143 Postby **gatorcane** » Sat Oct 29, 2005 11:23 pm

I'm very worried about future Gamma.... :eek:

I see a possible U.S. threat here.

jkt21787 · #144 Postby **jkt21787** » Sat Oct 29, 2005 11:28 pm

boca_chris wrote:I'm very worried about future Gamma....

I see a possible U.S. threat here.

*EARLY* model data and the developing synoptic pattern indicate NO US landfall threat from this potential system. However, it is early and subject to change.

Too early to call, IMO. I'm not sure this even develops yet. There still needs to be a lot of organization with it before it gets going good. Will need watching closely though first for the Northeastern Caribbean Islands including Hispainola. Hopefully no Alpha repeat there.

#145 Postby **gatorcane** » Sat Oct 29, 2005 11:32 pm

NO US landfall?

How can you say that?

The Global models so solid ridging to FL for the next week? Look at the GFS.

This one could easily be a player down the road, minimally a Puerto Rico threat in the short-term.

#146 Postby **gatorcane** » Sat Oct 29, 2005 11:35 pm

92L looks like it will turn into a TD but it looks like its starting to turn more WNW and I think it will continue turning more northerly over time.I can't see it penetrating that large trough from Beta NE into the Atlanic. That trough should it stay in that postion like act like a cold front and turn it harmlessly out to sea with SW winds ahead of the trough.

Yes, you are right partially, it will move WNW over the next 48 hours and then will probably turn back W as the weakness around 60W is replaced by a ridge. At that point future Gamma will track more W to WNW towards the Bahamas and then who knows what will happen at that point?

jkt21787 · #147 Postby **jkt21787** » Sat Oct 29, 2005 11:35 pm

boca_chris wrote:NO US landfall?

How can you say that?

The Global models so solid ridging to FL for the next week? Look at the GFS.

This one could easily be a player down the road, minimally a Puerto Rico threat in the short-term.

I guess you didn't see me EMPHASIZE *EARLY* and said it was "subject to change", and it was "too early to call, IMO" Did you just ignore that part?

#148 Postby **gatorcane** » Sat Oct 29, 2005 11:39 pm

no, I saw that. Just wanted to make sure you didn't think I was crazy.

8-)

jkt21787 · #149 Postby **jkt21787** » Sat Oct 29, 2005 11:42 pm

boca_chris wrote:no, I saw that. Just wanted to make sure you didn't think I was crazy.

No, I don't think you're crazy, at least here :wink:

.

Its way too early in the game to rule out anything, especially given this year's unpredictability. One of my rules is not to be too trustworthy of the models before the system actually develops, so again anything and everything is subject to change.

#150 Postby **gatorcane** » Sat Oct 29, 2005 11:43 pm

Its way too early in the game to rule out anything, especially given this year's unpredictability. One of my rules is not to be too trustworthy of the models before the system actually develops, so again anything and everything is subject to change.

Well, I'm going to bed now. My girlfriend thinks I'm hooked to this thing. I should pay attention to her.

Ola · #151 Postby **Ola** » Sun Oct 30, 2005 12:48 am

Hey is the sat eclipse over for the year? there is no missing pics!!

Website · #152 Postby **Brent** » Sun Oct 30, 2005 12:49 am

Ola wrote:Hey is the sat eclipse over for the year? there is no missing pics!!

Yes... it only happens around the peak of the season due to the way the sun angle is.

Ola · #153 Postby **Ola** » Sun Oct 30, 2005 12:50 am

Brent wrote:
Ola wrote:Hey is the sat eclipse over for the year? there is no missing pics!!

Yes... it only happens around the peak of the season due to the way the sun angle is.

Yeah i knew that, i just didnt know it was over for the year cool

#154 Postby **gatorcane** » Sun Oct 30, 2005 1:26 am

Hey guys I think we have a serious invest here....that's just my opinion but we'll be watching this closely over the next week:

:eek:

wxmann_91 · #155 Postby **wxmann_91** » Sun Oct 30, 2005 2:19 am

Climo says this is a fish. 2005 throws climo out the window.

Models aren't reliable this early in the game, there's even a chance this invest won't make it.

Let's not cause unnecessary panic please. The above points illustrate that it could go either way. Right now the biggest threat is the Lesser Antilles, Puerto Rico, and Hispaniola. Anything beyond that is pure speculation.

Anonymous · #156 Postby **Anonymous** » Sun Oct 30, 2005 5:42 am

The likelyhood of Invest 92L making it to the USA is slim in my opinion. An Alpha-like track into the Caribbean, then turning before the Bahamas seems reasonable as of now.

#157 Postby **Cookiely** » Sun Oct 30, 2005 6:01 am

wxmann_91 wrote:Climo says this is a fish. 2005 throws climo out the window.

Models aren't reliable this early in the game, there's even a chance this invest won't make it.

Let's not cause unnecessary panic please. The above points illustrate that it could go either way. Right now the biggest threat is the Lesser Antilles, Puerto Rico, and Hispaniola. Anything beyond that is pure speculation.

I don't know about anyone else but at this point I don't think I would panic if there was a cat 6 headed my way. I feel numb.

caribepr · #158 Postby **caribepr** » Sun Oct 30, 2005 6:25 am

Cookiely wrote:
wxmann_91 wrote:Climo says this is a fish. 2005 throws climo out the window.

Models aren't reliable this early in the game, there's even a chance this invest won't make it.

Let's not cause unnecessary panic please. The above points illustrate that it could go either way. Right now the biggest threat is the Lesser Antilles, Puerto Rico, and Hispaniola. Anything beyond that is pure speculation.

I don't know about anyone else but at this point I don't think I would panic if there was a cat 6 headed my way. I feel numb.

I couldn't find a *hug* emoticon for you, but if I could, I would.

WindRunner · #159 Postby **WindRunner** » Sun Oct 30, 2005 6:52 am

It sure doesn't look half as good this morning as it did yesterday evening. Forget the 11am call I made, this won't happen until tomorrow at the earliest now.

#160 Postby **bvigal** » Sun Oct 30, 2005 7:16 am

I agree it doesn't look as healthy as yesterday. At this point, I'm having serious doubts it will be flown tomorrow, but we'll wait and see.

The biggest convection yesterday was north and east of the low. This morning, a new line of precip forming at 58-59W 14 to 17N, which I feel is interaction of the wave with TUTT in Eastern Caribbean. The wave will reach 60W before dark today and into Caribbean by morning.

I know we can expect some squally weather from the Atlantic waters to pass over the Leewards and then reach us here in PR/VI. I expect the low will still be south of us, and that any chance of its development will be after it enters Caribbean waters.

Tropical Wave at Caribbean

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