Hurricane BETA Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

The eye is clearing out in the reds are wraping tightly...I think its going to be a cat3 at 5am.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

6z Sab t number are 5.5/5.5=102 knots...

[WxGuy1]

It'll prob be borderline Cat 2/3 IMO. The overall area of cold cloud tops is shrinking, and it'll be on shore in not too long. In fact, Beta looks considerably worse on satellite now than she did a couple hours ago. Beta appears to be moving WSW, south of the NHC forecast track. Certainly a very serious rainfall threat, since the wind threat will be localized owing to the very small wind field (hurricane-force winds only extend out 15 miles from the eye). This is why we don't take the LBAR or NHCA98E "models" seriously most of the time. The majority of the dynamical models and the NHC hit this forecast quite well.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Mitch made landfall with 50 knot winds....Wow he was alot weaker then Beta.

ZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM MITCH DISCUSSION NUMBER 33
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
4 PM EST THU OCT 29 1998

THE HURRICANE HUNTERS AND SATELLITE ANALYSTS INDICATE THAT THE
CENTER OF MITCH IS NOW OVER LAND...HAVING DRIFTED SOUTHWARD TODAY.
HIGHEST 850 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS WERE 57 KT. STEADY WINDS OF
50 KT WERE REPORTED A FEW HOURS AGO FROM TRUJILLO HONDURAS BY THE
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF HONDURAS. MITCH IS DOWNGRADED TO A
TROPICAL STORM WITH 50 KT WINDS.

THIS MORNINGS GFDL SHOWS A SOUTHWARD MOTION THROUGH THIS EVENING AND
THEN A NW HEADING WITH LANDFALL ON THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IN 72
HOURS. THE 12Z NOGAPS IS QUALITATIVELY SIMILAR...AND BOTH ARE
CLOSE TO OUR PREVIOUS FORECAST SO NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IS MADE FOR
THIS ADVISORY.

THE HURRICANE WARNINGS ARE REPLACED BY TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS FROM
HONDURAS THROUGH THE EASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND A HURRICANE
WATCH FOR BELIZE. AT THIS TIME...NONE OF THE TRACK MODELS SHOW
MITCH BECOMING A THREAT TO THE UNITED STATES WITHIN THE NEXT 3 DAYS.

MORE RAIN AND FLOODS ARE POSSIBLE OVER HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA FOR
ANOTHER DAY OR TWO.

RAPPAPORT

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 29/2100Z 15.9N 85.8W 50 KTS...INLAND
12HR VT 30/0600Z 15.9N 85.8W 45 KTS...INLAND
24HR VT 30/1800Z 16.2N 86.0W 45 KTS
36HR VT 31/0600Z 16.8N 86.6W 45 KTS
48HR VT 31/1800Z 17.5N 87.2W 50 KTS
72HR VT 01/1800Z 20.0N 88.5W 35 KTS...INLAND

NNNN

[HurricaneBill]

Actually, Mitch was a Category 1 at landfall. Although at his peak, I think some coastal areas did receive Category 3 conditions.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

The storm is going down the coast line...I think its closer to southwest right now. The eye is really clearing out. We will see what happens.

[Thunder44]

977
WHXX01 KWBC 300638
CHGHUR

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

HURRICANE BETA (AL262005) ON 20051030 0600 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
051030 0600 051030 1800 051031 0600 051031 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 13.3N 83.1W 12.8N 85.0W 12.3N 86.8W 11.9N 88.8W
BAMM 13.3N 83.1W 12.8N 84.5W 12.3N 86.2W 11.8N 88.1W
A98E 13.3N 83.1W 12.7N 84.6W 12.4N 86.4W 12.0N 88.4W
LBAR 13.3N 83.1W 13.0N 84.3W 13.4N 86.0W 14.1N 88.1W
SHIP 100KTS 108KTS 110KTS 111KTS
DSHP 100KTS 67KTS 40KTS 31KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
051101 0600 051102 0600 051103 0600 051104 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 11.7N 91.0W 12.0N 95.9W 13.2N 102.0W 14.2N 108.2W
BAMM 11.4N 90.1W 10.8N 94.6W 11.1N 100.2W 11.4N 105.7W
A98E 11.7N 90.4W 11.4N 94.7W 11.5N 99.2W 11.6N 103.8W
LBAR 15.2N 89.9W 18.5N 92.3W 22.7N 91.9W 26.6N 90.2W
SHIP 109KTS 96KTS 79KTS 62KTS
DSHP 28KTS 27KTS 27KTS 27KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 13.3N LONCUR = 83.1W DIRCUR = 245DEG SPDCUR = 7KT
LATM12 = 13.8N LONM12 = 82.1W DIRM12 = 264DEG SPDM12 = 4KT
LATM24 = 13.6N LONM24 = 81.4W
WNDCUR = 100KT RMAXWD = 10NM WNDM12 = 80KT
CENPRS = 960MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 50NM RD34SE = 50NM RD34SW = 50NM RD34NW = 50NM

06z models initalized at 100kts and 960mb pressure.

[wxmann_91]

It'll prob be borderline Cat 2/3 IMO. The overall area of cold cloud tops is shrinking, and it'll be on shore in not too long. In fact, Beta looks considerably worse on satellite now than she did a couple hours ago. Beta appears to be moving WSW, south of the NHC forecast track. Certainly a very serious rainfall threat, since the wind threat will be localized owing to the very small wind field (hurricane-force winds only extend out 15 miles from the eye). This is why we don't take the LBAR or NHCA98E "models" seriously most of the time. The majority of the dynamical models and the NHC hit this forecast quite well.

You kiddin' me? Beta is contracting and strengthening, eye is clearing out. This certainly won't be Wilma 2, but still, a very formidable and impressive hurricane to say the least.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-ir4-loop.html

The current southward shift is very bad news - once progged to make landfall in rural areas, extrapolate the current motion and the center goes near Karawala, Tasbapauni, Makantaca. Also note the large river (Rio Grande) that flows down in the vicinity. If that river bursts its banks Makantaca is in big trouble.



EDIT: Might want to add this question, over the past few years, whenever we have a situation where a strong hurricane is over the Caribbean or southern GOM under weak or nonexisting steering currents, why does it tend to move south? I thought the Beta Effect (no pun intended) made strong hurricanes go north? Is it because hurricanes are "attracted" to large land masses like Central America? Examples of this are Isidore 2002, Stan 2005, Mitch 1998, and Wilma 2005. Now Beta is doing it. Any pro mets like to take a stab at this question?

[bombarderoazul]

It'll prob be borderline Cat 2/3 IMO. The overall area of cold cloud tops is shrinking, and it'll be on shore in not too long. In fact, Beta looks considerably worse on satellite now than she did a couple hours ago. Beta appears to be moving WSW, south of the NHC forecast track. Certainly a very serious rainfall threat, since the wind threat will be localized owing to the very small wind field (hurricane-force winds only extend out 15 miles from the eye). This is why we don't take the LBAR or NHCA98E "models" seriously most of the time. The majority of the dynamical models and the NHC hit this forecast quite well.

You kiddin' me? Beta is contracting and strengthening, eye is clearing out. This certainly won't be Wilma 2, but still, a very formidable and impressive hurricane to say the least.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-ir4-loop.html

The current southward shift is very bad news - once progged to make landfall in rural areas, extrapolate the current motion and the center goes near Karawala, Tasbapauni, Makantaca. Also note the large river (Rio Grande) that flows down in the vicinity. If that river bursts its banks Makantaca is in big trouble.



EDIT: Might want to add this question, over the past few years, whenever we have a situation where a strong hurricane is over the Caribbean or southern GOM under weak or nonexisting steering currents, why does it tend to move south? I thought the Beta Effect (no pun intended) made strong hurricanes go north? Is it because hurricanes are "attracted" to large land masses like Central America? Examples of this are Isidore 2002, Stan 2005, Mitch 1998, and Wilma 2005. Now Beta is doing it. Any pro mets like to take a stab at this question?

I grew up around the golfo de Fonseca region on the salvadorian side, most of the big mountains are on the pacific side, there are some very big volcanoes there. I went to Nicaragua once and the country is much poorer than the other central american countries. I fear they will get hit very hard.

[Anonymous]

We should get the first visible right about at landfall.

[AussieMark]

Actually, Mitch was a Category 1 at landfall. Although at his peak, I think some coastal areas did receive Category 3 conditions.

Actually Mitch was a category 2 at landfall

[Anonymous]

FROM THE OFFICIAL NHC REPORT

Mitch made a 70 kt or 80 mph landfall (CAT 1) 72 miles east of La Ceiba, Honduras on October 29, 1998

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/1998mitch.html

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Any more reports from that island that got slamed?

[mtm4319]

Beta has been downgraded to category 2 a few miles off the coast of Nicaragua near La Barra.

[WindRunner]

We should get the first visible right about at landfall.

It's going to be close . . .

[wxwatcher91]

[mtm4319]

000
WTNT61 KNHC 301307
TCUAT1
HURRICANE BETA TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 AM EST SUN OCT 30 2005
SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT HURRICANE BETA MADE LANDFALL NEAR LA
BARRA NICARAGUA AT ABOUT 7 AM EST THIS MORNING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS AT THE TIME OF LANDFALL WERE ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 105
MPH...OR CATEGORY TWO ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

$$

[WindRunner]

12Z models:

267
WHXX01 KWBC 301235
CHGHUR

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

HURRICANE BETA (AL262005) ON 20051030 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
051030 1200 051031 0000 051031 1200 051101 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 12.9N 83.5W 12.6N 85.6W 12.2N 87.6W 12.2N 89.9W
BAMM 12.9N 83.5W 12.3N 85.0W 11.5N 86.8W 11.1N 88.8W
A98E 12.9N 83.5W 12.4N 84.7W 12.3N 86.3W 12.4N 88.2W
LBAR 12.9N 83.5W 12.7N 85.0W 13.4N 86.8W 14.5N 88.8W
SHIP 90KTS 90KTS 90KTS 87KTS
DSHP 90KTS 49KTS 34KTS 32KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
051101 1200 051102 1200 051103 1200 051104 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 12.4N 92.2W 12.7N 97.9W 13.9N 104.0W 13.6N 110.8W
BAMM 10.6N 90.9W 9.6N 96.2W 9.5N 102.8W 9.4N 109.0W
A98E 12.5N 90.1W 12.9N 94.7W 13.8N 99.3W 14.5N 103.2W
LBAR 15.8N 90.6W 19.2N 92.4W 22.6N 92.8W 27.5N 91.3W
SHIP 82KTS 65KTS 48KTS 39KTS
DSHP 27KTS 0KTS 0KTS 0KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 12.9N LONCUR = 83.5W DIRCUR = 235DEG SPDCUR = 6KT
LATM12 = 13.6N LONM12 = 82.5W DIRM12 = 243DEG SPDM12 = 5KT
LATM24 = 13.7N LONM24 = 81.6W
WNDCUR = 90KT RMAXWD = 10NM WNDM12 = 90KT
CENPRS = 970MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 50NM RD34SE = 50NM RD34SW = 50NM RD34NW = 50NM

[cjrciadt]

Tiny center around a large cloud mass.

[El Nino]

Really a small one ... Maybe the track through these lakes can affect some weakening. What's the chanbce to get this depression into Pacific Ocean ?