UKMET seeing things in the Bahamas?

[WindRunner]

UKMET has a "new TS analyzed in 12hrs"

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 12 HOURS

FORECAST POSITION AT T+12 : 22.9N 76.9W



VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

12UTC 30.10.2005 22.9N 76.9W WEAK

00UTC 31.10.2005 22.9N 77.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 31.10.2005 23.7N 77.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 01.11.2005 23.8N 80.6W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 01.11.2005 26.3N 78.4W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 02.11.2005 26.9N 79.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 02.11.2005 23.7N 87.0W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 03.11.2005 24.6N 86.6W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 03.11.2005 25.7N 86.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 04.11.2005 29.0N 80.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 04.11.2005 30.2N 73.4W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 05.11.2005 32.2N 67.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE




But looking at the sats, I'm not seeing anything, unless there is some low that is going to develop on the cold front down there. Anyone have any idea as to what this thing is seeing? Or is it just being crazy?

[Budro999]

Look at the coordinates for this system that the model generates. Something is clearly wrong, and the model must be seeing things, as the track is quite erratic and unnaturally fast at times.

[wxwatcher91]

[Zadok]

Very interesting.

:eek:

[rainydaze]

This is a snippet from the Miami NWS concerning the area highlighted above I believe....it seems like it will be moving toward SoFla in a few days and they do mention a surface low could form....

THE AFOREMENTIONED INCLIMATE WX OFF TO OUR SOUTHEAST WILL BECOME A
PLAYER MON-WED. A MID/UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DIG OUT INTO
THE PLAINS STATES MONDAY AND ENTER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO BY
TUESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW THE DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE SE OF THE AREA
TO GET DRAWN INTO SOUTH FLORIDA...ESPECIALLY TUE-WED. SO AM
EXPECTING THE MON-WED PERIOD TO FEATURE INCREASING CLOUDINESS
ALONG WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS...AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
TUE-WED. BEST SURFACE CONVERGENCE LOOKS TO BE ON TUE...WHEN A
SURFACE TROUGH IS FOREAST TO LIFT NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE
AREA...SO THIS SEEMS TO BE THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAINFALL. SHOULD
ANY WEAK LOWS DEVELOP ALONG THIS FEATURE...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
WOULD BE POSSIBLE...BUT THIS IS VERY UNCERTAIN.

[gatorcane]

Here we go again