Named Storms for November

[wxwatcher91]

October is coming to a close with the tropical activity as follows

Tropical Cyclones: 7
Tropical Storms: 6
Hurricanes: 4
Major Hurricanes: 2

there still is a chance for tropical development before October is done so by no means is the above a list of totals for October.

since the beginning of the season (June 1st) up till yesterday (October 29th) there have been 151 days of hurricane season. with 23 named storms, we are averaging one named storm every 6 to 7 days.

there are some stats, now how active do you think November will be?

[wxwatcher91]

COMMENTS ARE WELCOME TOO! lol

[Anonymous]

I say two...so probably to Delta.

[canetracker]

Because this season has been so atypical, I say 3 going up to Epsilon.

[quandary]

Two, depending on when Invest 92L forms. If it forms in October, then two (or less) is my guess. If it forms in early November, then possibly 3.

December will more than likely eke out one more storm, but we'll have to look at the pattern when we cross that bridge.

[wxwatcher91]

let's look at some previous seasons and compare October and November and December:

.......................Oct................Nov...............Dec
2004................2-0-0.............1-0-0.............0-0-0
2003................2-0-0.............0-0-0.............2-0-0
2002................0-0-0.............0-0-0.............0-0-0
2001................5-3-2.............2-2-0.............0-0-0
2000................3-1-0.............0-0-0.............0-0-0
1999................3-2-0.............1-1-1.............0-0-0
1998................2-2-1.............1-1-0.............0-0-0
1997................2-0-0.............0-0-0.............0-0-0
1996................3-1-1.............1-1-0.............0-0-0
1995................4-2-1.............0-0-0.............0-0-0

most NSs.........5-*-*..............2-*-*.............2-*-*
most Hs...........*-3-*..............*-2-*.............*-0-*
most MHs.........*-*-2..............*-*-1.............*-*-0

average NSs....3-*-*..............1-*-*..............0-*-*
average Hs......*-1-*..............*-1-*..............*-0-*
average MHs....*-*-1..............*-*-0..............*-*-0

#2005.............6-4-2..............2-2-1..............1-0-0

my forecast.....6-4-2..............3-2-1..............2-1-0

#-October 2005 is NOT OVER! 92L could still develop and if it is declared a depression either today or tomorrow that means that it is an October storm. the projection for November and December 2005 is based on the averages of the past 10 years and proportioning them to the numbers of this October.

[MiamiensisWx]

I feel fairly confident that there will be one more named storm (Gamma), with a possibility of getting a second one (Delta). There may likely not be more, but there is a very slight possibility of a third storm; however, I think one to two more storms is most likely. Just my opinion, though... this may very easily be wrong based on this incredible season.

[wxwatcher91]

I feel fairly confident that there will be one more named storm (Gamma), with a possibility of getting a second one (Delta). There may likely not be more, but there is a very slight possibility of a third storm; however, I think one to two more storms is most likely. Just my opinion, though... this may very easily be wrong based on this incredible season.

yeah I'm having a hard time imagining what we will get because I keep trying to remind myself that it is November and we are supposed to get much less activity based on climatology but then I keep thinking "but wait we just got 6 named storms this past month!"

so I dunno sometimes I want to say "we are definitely going to get 5 storms at least" and then sometimes I want to say "wait, it's November! 2 at the most"

[MiamiensisWx]

Agreed, wxwatcher91. It's like a mental war going on inside your mind.

[wxmann_91]

two

[weatherwindow]

my guess is two....one more potential cuba/fla threat out of the western carib and one midlatitude hybrid

[f5]

what if we get a poll in January asking the same question?6 months before the "OFFICAL"start of hurricane season which is a cancer word right now

[bahamaswx]

I'll stick with my prediction of the season ending with Gamma (meaning 1 more NS), but with the current synoptic setup I wouldn't be surpised to see 2, 3, or even 4 more (Delta-Zeta).

[Jim Cantore]

23 more storms in november

I voted for 2 one I think hits the U.S

[WindRunner]

I said 3, not including 92L.

[Jim Cantore]

I agree 92L will be one of them (IF it doesnt form before then)

[Brent]

Two.

More would not surprise me...

[Jim Cantore]

At this point I wouldnt be suprised it we cleared the greek letters

[El Nino]

I'm thinking like you Brent. 2005 is so atypical ...

[Jim Cantore]

I'm shocked in a way but not in another

after Emily I was expecting to see an Alpha but not this early and not a Beta or possibly a Gamma period