GFS Develops a Massive Atlantic Ridge By End of This Week

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gatorcane
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GFS Develops a Massive Atlantic Ridge By End of This Week

#1 Postby gatorcane » Sun Oct 30, 2005 3:38 pm

It's still looking alot like summer-time. In fact, there are no troughs forecasted to move down the East coast of the U.S. this week.

and....there is 92L lurking out there :eek:

Comments welcome 8-)

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#2 Postby wxmann_91 » Sun Oct 30, 2005 3:47 pm

Take it with a grain of salt. GFS is notoriously bad at forecasting ridges.
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#3 Postby krysof » Sun Oct 30, 2005 3:50 pm

wxmann_91 wrote:Take it with a grain of salt. GFS is notoriously bad at forecasting ridges.


I'm afraid they may be right about this ridge. The CPC is also forecasting it, not to mention the temperatures are warming and going to warm because of it for my area on the EC.
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#4 Postby gatorcane » Sun Oct 30, 2005 3:50 pm

Some more global models:

Looks like it's not just the GFS, although the GFS makes this ridge stronger than the other models:

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#5 Postby gatorcane » Sun Oct 30, 2005 4:32 pm

bump
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#6 Postby Brent » Sun Oct 30, 2005 4:36 pm

I believe it... the massive cold outbreak that was expected here by the middle of this week a week ago is now gone and will be replaced by dry and warm conditions(blah). I hate this. :grr:

Over 3 weeks without rain...
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#7 Postby Ivanhater » Sun Oct 30, 2005 4:42 pm

Brent wrote:I believe it... the massive cold outbreak that was expected here by the middle of this week a week ago is now gone and will be replaced by dry and warm conditions(blah). I hate this. :grr:

Over 3 weeks without rain...


seriously, bring on some rain!
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#8 Postby gatorcane » Sun Oct 30, 2005 4:44 pm

a tropical cyclone would help you guys 8-) :eek:
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#9 Postby wxmann_91 » Sun Oct 30, 2005 4:46 pm

The models posted above suggest that either 92L will be a fish or recurve towards the Carolinas. Only the GFS is forecasting such a powerful summertime ridge, all the others are forecasting a much weaker ridge, and though stronger than most November ridges, still allow for recurvature if 92L develops.

Though boca_chris is right about one thing: this system could be a problem for Florida down the road if and only if it remains weak and doesn't dissipate, like TD 10 earlier this year.
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#10 Postby gatorcane » Sun Oct 30, 2005 4:49 pm

TD 10 formed into Katrina ...
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#11 Postby jkt21787 » Sun Oct 30, 2005 4:51 pm

boca_chris wrote:TD 10 formed into Katrina ...

No need to make comparisons, I am quite confident wxmann was in NO WAY suggesting anything like Katrina.
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#12 Postby gatorcane » Sun Oct 30, 2005 4:52 pm

true, I'm just stating a fact. :wink:

JK what is your opinion on what these global models are forecasting?

Also 92L is looking very impressive today on sat.
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#13 Postby jkt21787 » Sun Oct 30, 2005 5:01 pm

boca_chris wrote:true, I'm just stating a fact. :wink:

JK what is your opinion on what these global models are forecasting?

Also 92L is looking very impressive today on sat.

GFS is probably too strong with the ridge while UKMET is probably developing too much weakness in the Central Atlantic. There is no doubt ridging will become more dominant in the Atlantic and Eastern US through the next week.

Some models, including the ECMWF and CMC are breaking down the ridge in place of troughing in the Eastern US by Next weekend. Too soon to say whether that will verify...
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#14 Postby gatorcane » Sun Oct 30, 2005 5:21 pm

thanks JK, I think you are right about the GFS.
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