Tropical Wave at Caribbean

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#161 Postby no advance » Sun Oct 30, 2005 7:22 am

Water temp at that buoy yesterday was 83 so it is possible it could make a comeback.
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#162 Postby caribepr » Sun Oct 30, 2005 7:23 am

bvigal wrote:I agree it doesn't look as healthy as yesterday. At this point, I'm having serious doubts it will be flown tomorrow, but we'll wait and see.

The biggest convection yesterday was north and east of the low. This morning, a new line of precip forming at 58-59W 14 to 17N, which I feel is interaction of the wave with TUTT in Eastern Caribbean. The wave will reach 60W before dark today and into Caribbean by morning.

I know we can expect some squally weather from the Atlantic waters to pass over the Leewards and then reach us here in PR/VI. I expect the low will still be south of us, and that any chance of its development will be after it enters Caribbean waters.


A good note before heading out the door!! Poof would be even better 8-) It is absolutely glorious here this morning, I'll take what I've got.
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#163 Postby O Town » Sun Oct 30, 2005 8:19 am

Image
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#164 Postby Thunder44 » Sun Oct 30, 2005 8:30 am

I think what preventing this wave from developing today is that it's starting to get squeezed in between the ULL to it west over the Carribean and some dry air and high pressure building in from the East. You can see that on water vapor imagery here:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html
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#165 Postby Hyperstorm » Sun Oct 30, 2005 8:32 am

Invest 92L is having some trouble developing this morning. The upper-level high that is favorable for development is located NE of it. This high has been slower to move westward than forecast by the GFS. Therefore, the tropical wave has been experiencing over the past 24 hours some moderate southeasterly wind shear that has not allowed the convection to persist longer.

It appears now that the forecast of more favorable upper-level winds will wait until very late tomorrow and into the day on Tuesday. By that time, the wave will probably be located over the eastern Caribbean Sea, which is not an area that is particularly favorable for development this time of year. Therefore, it is a good bet that the system will not develop before it reaches the Lesser Antilles and any development after that will depend on where the upper-level high pressure area is located in relation to the system.

As has already been mentioned, a track westward followed by a general WNW heading over the next several days due to a weakness in the ridge north of the Greater Antilles, is preferred. Two possible scenarios: 1)Track toward Hispaniola with a shortwave of low pressure developing in the Gulf of Mexico near Florida. This feature, that should be off the Florida coast on Thursday, should help push the system out to sea. 2)Track westward through the Caribbean if the system remains shallow and does not develop.

The most likely scenario for the next day or two is a short duration event of squally weather across the Lesser Antilles, Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico...
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#166 Postby cycloneye » Sun Oct 30, 2005 8:49 am

Here in Puerto Rico there is no panic at all and I know that in the NE Caribbean islands is the same.As a matter of fact it is a beautiful day here as caribepr said with a light refreshing breeze something that will invite the people to go out and enjoy this day as any other sunday.

The wave looks wimpy right now with no real organization taking place this morning.But as bvigal said once the weak low enters the caribbean it may well start to organize but it is not a given that it will occur.However regardless rain will arrive in the NE Caribbean islands damping the Halloween day festivities.
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#167 Postby bvigal » Sun Oct 30, 2005 10:52 am

Who is "MT"? (analyst at TPC)

One other comment, so will add it here, to save space. There is no doubt a circulation at 12.5-13N where drawn on surface maps. However, I think this system is reorganizing, with another circulation developing under intense flareup at approx. 15.5N 58W. Anyone else see this?
Last edited by bvigal on Sun Oct 30, 2005 11:12 am, edited 1 time in total.
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#168 Postby cycloneye » Sun Oct 30, 2005 11:10 am

ABNT20 KNHC 301605
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EST SUN OCT 30 2005

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
BETA...LOCATED INLAND ABOUT 50 MILES NORTH OF BLUEFIELDS NICARAGUA.

CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE ARE BEGINNING
TO SPREAD INTO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. THIS SYSTEM REMAINS
DISORGANIZED AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE BECOMING LESS FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN


11:30 AM EST TWO. :blowup:

But plenty of rain and some gusty winds for the NE Caribbean islands is a given.
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#169 Postby bvigal » Sun Oct 30, 2005 11:29 am

Ha, that is interesting! Especially seeing 12z surface map, showing 1013mb to drop down to 1009mb:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb/ATSA_12Z.gif
I have every confidence in Franklin and Wallace.

Seems to me that this could be another situation like SO MANY we've had this year in the exact same spot (50-60W), where the wave continues westward, while the low splits off and moves NW. And as we've learned this year, a low that separates from a wave still has plenty of potential to develop later on, north of the Caribbean. At least it improves the chance (being November and being Atlantic vs Caribbean) should it develop, that it will miss all land/islands and go fish.
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#170 Postby gatorcane » Sun Oct 30, 2005 12:39 pm

Wind shear doesn't look all that bad:

Image
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#171 Postby bigmike » Sun Oct 30, 2005 2:53 pm

Yep that 50-90 mph shear off the fla coast looks favorable for development :lol:
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#172 Postby Brent » Sun Oct 30, 2005 2:58 pm

bigmike wrote:Yep that 50-90 mph shear off the fla coast looks favorable for development :lol:


:uarrow:

:roflmao:
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#173 Postby Tampa Bay Hurricane » Sun Oct 30, 2005 3:02 pm

bigmike wrote:Yep that 50-90 mph shear off the fla coast looks favorable for development :lol:


I think Boca_Chris was referring to the shear
around 92L, which is quite light.
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#174 Postby gatorcane » Sun Oct 30, 2005 3:27 pm

Yes, the shear off the FL coast is strong but is supposed to lessen gradually as the trough fizzles out and is replaced by a ridge.

The shear around 92L is nominal at best. That is why the convection has been able to maintain itself. I'm not sure why the NHC goes from saying that conditions will be become favorable to conditions are not favorable.
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#175 Postby gatorcane » Sun Oct 30, 2005 3:36 pm

No fish this time. GFS actually builds the ridge even more by the end of the week. Looks like a summer-time setup :eek:

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.cgi?time=2005103012&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=144hr
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#176 Postby bvigal » Sun Oct 30, 2005 3:55 pm

Anybody notice the NRL view is still centered at 14N 54W? Convection nearly out of the frame on the visible zoom. Why don't they just take it off the menu?!! :lol:

Hmm, and another oddity... who IS this guy going by "MT" at NHC??
TWD 1pm EDT (notice using daylight, and we're off it) says
"THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE WHICH IS ALONG 49W/50W SOUTH OF 19N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT IS NOT DIFFICULT TO FIND AT ALL ON CURRENT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. A 1013 MB SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 13N ALONG THIS WAVE. CYCLONIC FLOW IN THE LOW CLOUDS COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND CARIBBEAN SEA WATERS FROM 11N TO 18N BETWEEN 55W AND 62W. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND FROM 14N TO 18N BETWEEN 57W AND 62W. LOTS OF RAIN IS IN STORE FOR THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS WHICH ARE JUST WEST OF THIS WAVE IF ALL THE CURRENT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY MAINTAINS ITSELF DURING ITS WESTWARD MOVEMENT...POSSIBLY FROM ST.LUCIA TO ANGUILLA. THIS SYSTEM REMAINS DISORGANIZED AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE BECOMING LESS FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT."

Is that 49/50W a typo??? He signed the noon map, too, and it certainly isn't at 49W! http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb/ATSA_12Z.gif
Hopefully it is a typo, or I'm greatly confused :roll: (i.e., more blonde than usual! :roflmao:)

:cold: Cool yourself off here: http://www.wyoroad.info/highway/webcame ... npass.html
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#177 Postby gatorcane » Sun Oct 30, 2005 4:24 pm

does anybody know of a site that gives local conditions across the Leeward Islands?

I'm curious to see which direction the winds are coming out of
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#178 Postby ts_kakolina » Sun Oct 30, 2005 4:40 pm

boca_chris wrote:does anybody know of a site that gives local conditions across the Leeward Islands?

I'm curious to see which direction the winds are coming out of


Maybe this site CURRENT OBSERVATIONS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN could help you:

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/sju/caribm.html
Last edited by ts_kakolina on Mon Oct 31, 2005 3:56 am, edited 1 time in total.
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#179 Postby gatorcane » Sun Oct 30, 2005 4:43 pm

Perfect that is just the site I was looking for!

I've added it to my favorites.
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#180 Postby abajan » Sun Oct 30, 2005 4:55 pm

boca_chris wrote:does anybody know of a site that gives local conditions across the Leeward Islands?

I'm curious to see which direction the winds are coming out of

This should also be helpful:

Got to http://weather.noaa.gov/international.html
Then choose:

Antigua & Barbuda
British Virgin Islands
Guadeloupe
Netherland Antilles: Juliana Airport, St. Martin and Roosevelt Airport, St. Eustatius. The others are not in the Leeward Islands.
St. Kitts & Nevis
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