Tropical Wave at Caribbean

[HurricaneQueen]

Great site!!! THANKS.

[CHRISTY]

92L looking pretty healthy right now...

[jkt21787]

It has some devleoping outflow to the North and West, but not much elsewhere. Still may be experiencing some shear. There also appears to be an outflow boundary west of it approaching PR.

[Thunder44]

TPC doesn't seemed to be impressed:


637
ABNT20 KNHC 302156
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EST SUN OCT 30 2005

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON WEAKENING
TROPICAL STORM BETA...LOCATED INLAND ABOUT 65 MILES NORTHWEST OF
BLUEFIELDS NICARAGUA.

CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE EXTEND FROM
NEAR THE LEEWARD ISLANDS EASTWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC FOR A FEW
HUNDRED MILES. THIS SYSTEM REMAINS DISORGANIZED AND UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS ARE BECOMING LESS FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.

FORECASTER PASCH

Doesn't look like it's going to be developing tonight.

[jkt21787]

Yeah, it should be a couple of days, IF AT ALL, that this develops. I'm not convinced that it does by any means, in fact, odds are better right now that it doesn't develop.

[OURAGAN]

I don't understand the two 5.30 PM , i think this wave is getting better organized and more concentrated than this morning and the shear is very low where it is located.
Here is the TWO:

CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE EXTEND FROM
NEAR THE LEEWARD ISLANDS EASTWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC FOR A FEW
HUNDRED MILES. THIS SYSTEM REMAINS DISORGANIZED AND UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS ARE BECOMING LESS FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT.

Can someone explain me?

[WindRunner]

Hmm, and another oddity... who IS this guy going by "MT" at NHC??

I'm not sure who he is, but he's been doing TWDs for a while now, at least a year or so I think . . .


And the shear chart shows that the winds are only unfavorable in the short-term (the little tongue of 20kts+ shear), but slacken off further west and north of the area in front of 92L right now.

[Ivanhater]

it appears as if the wave axis has raced out ahead and the thunderstorms are back building

[gatorcane]

it appears as if the wave axis has raced out ahead and the thunderstorms are back building

Yes, I agree so what does this mean for development?

[Ivanhater]

it appears as if the wave axis has raced out ahead and the thunderstorms are back building

Yes, I agree so what does this mean for development?

not good right now, however, if i remember correctly, former td10s wave axis raced ahead which just left the thunderstorms behind then another wave interacted with it and became katrina

[OURAGAN]

The shear = à 0 knot where the wave is located.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... wg8sht.GIF

[TheEuropean]

The shear = à 0 knot where the wave is located.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... wg8sht.GIF

This is the shear tendency, not the real shear.

[jkt21787]

The shear = à 0 knot where the wave is located.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... wg8sht.GIF

This is the shear tendency, not the real shear.

The lines (dotted and solid) are shear tendency, but the colored areas underneath are the current shear values.

[gatorcane]

There doesn't seem to be alot of shear where 92L is located, so why does the NHC seem to not care about this system, given how it's holding on to it's convection nicely today?

[Thunder44]

it appears as if the wave axis has raced out ahead and the thunderstorms are back building

Actually I believe the wave axis is to the east of those thunderstorms. It's more in line to wear TAFB anaylised it this afternoon in their discussion.

[Ivanhater]

it appears as if the wave axis has raced out ahead and the thunderstorms are back building

Actually I believe the wave axis is to the west of those thunderstorms. It's more in line to wear TAFB anaylised it this afternoon in their discussion.

i know, thats what i was saying

[jkt21787]

There doesn't seem to be alot of shear where 92L is located, so why does the NHC seem to not care about this system, given how it's holding on to it's convection nicely today?

Couple of things:

First, as ivanhater mentioend, it does appear the wave axis has moved ahead of it, what I earlier called an outflow boundary. With the wave axis now removed, this greatly reduces the chances of development anytime in the near future.

Second, the thunderstorms once they stop backbuilding and progress west again, will move into that area of 20-30kt+ shear. So, conditions are going to become less favorable as it moves toward that area.

All in all, the chances of this developing within the next 24-36 hours, if at all, are very low at this time.

[Thunder44]

it appears as if the wave axis has raced out ahead and the thunderstorms are back building

Actually I believe the wave axis is to the west of those thunderstorms. It's more in line to wear TAFB anaylised it this afternoon in their discussion.

i know, thats what i was saying

Look at my post again. I meant to say to the EAST.

[gatorcane]

Jk, yes your explanation seems reasonable.

Two things, however:

1) if those thunderstorms that are backbuilding maintain overnight tonight, I think development may be possible sooner than the NHC thinks.

2) The 20-30K of shear is confined to a small wedge. If it survives that, there is little shear and the conditions will be much more favorable.

[Ivanhater]

it appears as if the wave axis has raced out ahead and the thunderstorms are back building

Actually I believe the wave axis is to the west of those thunderstorms. It's more in line to wear TAFB anaylised it this afternoon in their discussion.

i know, thats what i was saying

Look at my post again. I meant to say to the EAST.

hmm, im not sure about that....but i could be wrong...it wouldnt be the first time