Tropical Wave at Caribbean

[gatorcane]

Jk, yes your explanation seems reasonable.

Three things, however:

1) If those thunderstorms that are backbuilding maintain overnight tonight, I think development may be possible sooner than the NHC thinks.

2) The 20-30K of shear is confined to a small wedge. If it survives that, there is little shear and the conditions will be much more favorable.

3) I've been watching this wave for the past week and it has overcome a very hostile environment several days ago and has managed to survive. It seems that waves/invests this year have proven that can fight off hostile conditions like I have not seen in the past (e.g. TD 10)

[jkt21787]

it appears as if the wave axis has raced out ahead and the thunderstorms are back building

Actually I believe the wave axis is to the west of those thunderstorms. It's more in line to wear TAFB anaylised it this afternoon in their discussion.

i know, thats what i was saying

Look at my post again. I meant to say to the EAST.

hmm, im not sure about that....but i could be wrong...it wouldnt be the first time

LOL, could be. I originally called it an outflow boundary so maybe thats what it really is!

[gatorcane]

Jk, yes your explanation seems reasonable.

Three things, however:

1) If those thunderstorms that are backbuilding maintain overnight tonight, I think development may be possible sooner than the NHC thinks.

2) The 20-30K of shear is confined to a small wedge. If it survives that, there is little shear and the conditions will be much more favorable.

3) I've been watching this wave for the past week and it has overcome a very hostile environment several days ago and has managed to survive. It seems that waves/invests this year have proven that can fight off hostile conditions like I have not seen in the past (e.g. TD 10)

[jkt21787]

Well, boca_chris, anything could happen with this system. There is no doubt we've seen the strange and unpredictable this season. It will continue to be watched of course.

[Thunder44]

If you look at water vapor imagery you can see the wave axis.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

The convection has been running ahead of it all day long. But the wave axis seems to be catching up now this evening. It's interacting more with the ULL to it's west, causing the blowup of thunderstorms this evening. No signs of tropical cyclone formation at all.

TAFB latest surface analysis here at about 21:30z:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/CAR_latest.gif

The wave axis right about is just to the east of thunderstorms or on the east side there. They also analysised a low pressure area on the southern part of the axis.

[gatorcane]

Basically no matter what conditions are there, just looking at the satellite pictures is making me uneasy. It's a huge blob of very strong convection that is maintaining this eveing. I think 92L has some tricks waiting for us.

[Ivanhater]

it appears as if the wave axis has raced out ahead and the thunderstorms are back building

Actually I believe the wave axis is to the west of those thunderstorms. It's more in line to wear TAFB anaylised it this afternoon in their discussion.

i know, thats what i was saying

Look at my post again. I meant to say to the EAST.

hmm, im not sure about that....but i could be wrong...it wouldnt be the first time

LOL, could be. I originally called it an outflow boundary so maybe thats what it really is!

haaa, well either way, its not good news for 92l right now, lol

[OURAGAN]

I dont' agree with all of you ,I notice since 48 hours that the shear is decreasing to the west very slowly in tandem with the wave.
The limit of the low shear was at 55 W yesterday now it is at about 60w.

[gatorcane]

I dont' agree with all of you ,I notice since 48 hours that the shear is decreasing to the west very slowly in tandem with the wave.
The limit of the low shear was at 55 W yesterday now it is at about 60w

If you are indeed correct that would mean 92L has a good shot.

[jkt21787]

There is no tropical organization occurring though with 92L at this time. Most of the convection is induced by the nearby ULL. There isn't much shear now, but will get progressively worse. Its going to need more time, as in more than 24-36 hours, if it wants to start to develop at all.

[Ivanhater]

is this even an invest anymore?

[jkt21787]

is this even an invest anymore?

I haven't seen any model runs at all today, and as I understand it, once there are no model runs for 24 hours, the invest classification is no longer valid.

The last models ran valid for 6z. At 6z tomorrow, if models don't run again, then it will just be referred to as a wave.

[Ivanhater]

is this even an invest anymore?

I haven't seen any model runs at all today, and as I understand it, once there are no model runs for 24 hours, the invest classification is no longer valid.

The last models ran valid for 6z. At 6z tomorrow, if models don't run again, then it will just be referred to as a wave.

thats what i thought

[Thunder44]

is this even an invest anymore?

I haven't seen any model runs at all today, and as I understand it, once there are no model runs for 24 hours, the invest classification is no longer valid.

The last models ran valid for 6z. At 6z tomorrow, if models don't run again, then it will just be referred to as a wave.

thats what i thought

It still shows up on NRL site http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html

They are no computer models being run perhaps because there is no discernible center in the low or mid-levels to follow.

[bvigal]

as I said earlier today

... Seems to me that this could be another situation like SO MANY we've had this year in the exact same spot (50-60W), where the wave continues westward, while the low splits off and moves NW. And as we've learned this year, a low that separates from a wave still has plenty of potential to develop later on, north of the Caribbean. At least it improves the chance (being November and being Atlantic vs Caribbean) should it develop, that it will miss all land/islands and go fish.

Several other times when this has happened this season, the surface maps/analysis did not relocate the low for a while, there was a time lag of about 12 hours. I think some here are basically expressing the same idea.

[bvigal]

They are no computer models being run perhaps because there is no discernible center in the low or mid-levels to follow.

I can understand why they aren't displaying the models from the (original) low, the models can't develope anything from that spot.

[cycloneye]

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html

Click on the photo of 92L and see a new position at 00:00z 16.0n-59.0w.

[WxGuy1]

And it goes "Poof!" I know the CIMSS analysis only shows 10-20kts of shear over the area, but a loop of satellite leads me to think the shear is stronger than that. Regardless, almost all deep convection associated with 92L has falled apart over the past 4-5 hours. Remember, only a relatively small number of INVESTs "grow up" to be cyclones or depressions, and we're 0 for 2 since Beta developed (the first was the one that traversed the Leeward islands a few days ago and entered the Caribbean without organizing).

[Ivanhater]

5:30

CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE EXTEND FROM
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS EASTWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC FOR A FEW HUNDRED
MILES. THIS SYSTEM REMAINS DISORGANIZED AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE
NOT FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT.

changing the words up a bit

[Ivanhater]