When Will we if ever....

[hicksta]

Develop the knowledge to be able to know the exact point of a landfall and strength 5 days out??

[wxmann_91]

Probably never.

[Brent]

Develop the knowledge to be able to know the exact point of a landfall and strength 5 days out??

NHC is getting really good with the landfall... intensity will probably be difficult until long after we're all gone.

[hicksta]

Develop the knowledge to be able to know the exact point of a landfall and strength 5 days out??

NHC is getting really good with the landfall... intensity will probably be difficult until long after we're all gone.

True, they are improving very well with cat 1 2 and ts.. But once it reaches majors. They are ussually off. I am not insulting them they do a much better job than i do.

[f5]

majors create their own enviroment they can go wherever they want.thus that why they say they have a mind of its own

[hicksta]

True.. Even still when do yall think 5 days out we can pick 1 spot. and be able to save many lives. It may backfire though. Lets say they are wrong one time.. A spot that was spose to have ts-cat1 winds now has cat 4 winds and no one left because they watched tv and knowing there accuracy were confident that they would be ok

[AussieMark]

also the rapid intensification that causes em to be off with intensification. Look how fast storms like Dennis, Emily, Katrina, Wilma and Beta intensified this year

[Praxus]

Never say never. "All" you need is a full understanding of how weather
works and being able to reflect that mathematically... plus a comprehensive set amount of data to feed into the simulator.

In a few hundred years I'm sure the equations will be figured out; and
perhaps millions of dispersed nanobots will submit data along with other
information sources.

[f5]

the NO Mayor waited until Katrina reached the top of the SS scale before he began evacuation the city.the day before that she was barley a CAT 3 at 115 mph

[superfly]

Never say never. "All" you need is a full understanding of how weather
works and being able to reflect that mathematically... plus a comprehensive set amount of data to feed into the simulator.

In a few hundred years I'm sure the equations will be figured out; and
perhaps millions of dispersed nanobots will submit data along with other
information sources.

Even with all the equations figured out, you will still never be able to nail landfall and intensity every time because of variables.

Simple example, the chance of rolling a 1 on a 6-sided die is 1/6. Are we able to predict how many 1's will be rolled everytime we roll a 6-sided die 60 times? No. We can get a pretty good idea, but there's no way to predict it exactly.

To relate this to the discussion, imagine that you can get the exact probability for the chance of rapid intensification, can you predict whether it will happen in every individual case? No.

[wxmann_91]

Never say never. "All" you need is a full understanding of how weather
works and being able to reflect that mathematically... plus a comprehensive set amount of data to feed into the simulator.

In a few hundred years I'm sure the equations will be figured out; and
perhaps millions of dispersed nanobots will submit data along with other
information sources.

Suppose a hurricane that is exactly like Wilma peaks just when it makes landfall. The trochoidal oscillations of the eye that would occur, plus the small wobbles, makes a huge difference, since the windfield would be small. That's the difference between an entire town wiped away and a graze.

We can say with good confidence that the average track error for three days could be narrowed down to just a few miles in a hundred years, but we will never be completely perfect. For five days, the error will be greater still. And don't let me get started on intensity. The NHC will always err on the side of caution when storms look like they're going to bomb or weaken rapidly to avoid public complacency or panic. Sometimes that's a good thing, as there have been instances (like Beta), where all indications looked like an even stronger cane, but it didn't strengthen that much.