HURRICANE WILMA .. A PIECE OF THIS HISTORIC SEASON.

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CHRISTY

HURRICANE WILMA .. A PIECE OF THIS HISTORIC SEASON.

#1 Postby CHRISTY » Sun Oct 30, 2005 9:49 pm

OF COURSE HURRICANE WILMA.... THE STRONGEST HURRICANE EVER IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN..I REMEMBER WAKEING UP THAT MORNING AROUND 3AM AND TURNING ON MY PC AND LOOKING AT WHAT THE PLANE HAD FOUND REALLY LEFT ME SPEACHLESS!WILMA HAD DROPPED ALMOST I THINK BETWEEN 50 TO 60 MILLBARS IN A VERY SHORT TIME THAT WAS IMAZING I DONT REMEMBER THE EXACT NUMBER ON PRESSURE BUT THOSE WHO WERE WATCHING IAM SURE WERE SHOCKED AS WELL BUT ANYWAY WILMA IS JUST A PEACE OF THIS HISTORIC HURRICANE SEASON THAT MAY NEVER BE MATCHED AGAIN...Image
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#2 Postby hicksta » Sun Oct 30, 2005 9:57 pm

Or maybe, we will see it alot..
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#3 Postby Anonymous » Sun Oct 30, 2005 10:04 pm

I was up all night watching it. I was talking to Senor Pepr...the pressure dropped from 943 mb to 901 mb to 892 mb to 884 mb to 882 mb.
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#4 Postby Vandora » Sun Oct 30, 2005 11:04 pm

I stayed up that night even though I was falling asleep at the computer, because I just sensed she'd keep dropping and getting stronger. Though I had no idea she'd go THAT low THAT quickly. I remember the feeling of my heart dropping. Whew.
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#5 Postby brunota2003 » Sun Oct 30, 2005 11:18 pm

I remember at 8 P.M., after the dreaded pinhole eye comment, I saw the pressure drop, and around 8:30 I jokingly said, watch, the pressure is going to bottom out in the 800's, everyone said I was crazy, and that it couldnt go that low, the next morning, came on here, saw 882 pressure, and I double-taked, went and read the official discussion from the NHC, double-taked on that to, then thought, I MUST be seeing things, I'm crazy, I'm SUPER TIRED, or I'm dreaming, went to school, came home, got on the computer, checked on it, and sure enough, 882, muttered a few curse words, and a HOLY CRAP!!! here and there, then about fainted, then started watching it even closer...
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#6 Postby wxmann_91 » Sun Oct 30, 2005 11:35 pm

I am glad I live on the west coast, when it was about 11 PM my time I saw the pressure the hunters reported when they got in, and the new sats weren't out (and there was a huge difference between the 5Z and the 6Z sats in terms of overall structure and beauty), and I thought that it was a false reading. When the 6Z sats came out I knew this was going to be a doozy and once they confirmed (at that time, 901 mb) pressure I knew that this was going down further. I decided to wait an hour before sleeping cause I knew this was going down fast. Right before going to sleep, I saw 892 and thought OMG, but that week there happened to be a test the next day so I went to sleep thinking more about the test and not Wilma. The next morning I got up and thought that it couldn't go much lower, how wrong. 882 mb and I just collapsed on the floor (almost literally). What a night and morning, I'll never forget it. If it weren't for the test I'd bet that I would not have slept that night.
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#7 Postby Scorpion » Sun Oct 30, 2005 11:38 pm

I remember that night before I went to bed, I knew Wilma was on her way to becoming a Cat 5 and also declared the MSLP record was in jeopardy. I also knew that the 110 mph winds for 11 PM were very innaccurate. I was still shocked in the morning nevertheless with that 884 mb reading.
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#8 Postby jkt21787 » Sun Oct 30, 2005 11:46 pm

Wow, just wow about that night. I had been commenthing that it looked likely that Wilma was reaching category 3 status late that evening around NHC's 11 pm advisory. One comment I made on another board was about the AVNIR, and that deep, deep red, almost grayish color, which nearly compeltely surrounded the eye and made up the CDO. I knew I had seen the pure red completely surround the eye in storms, but never this grayish color. I knew then something might be up with this storm.

Well the recon was just coming in, and I was actually getting ready to head to bed. At the last minute, I decided to wait on the first recon reports. Believe it or not, and it is documented on this board and others, I was orginally not impressed with the storm. I saw a number of minimal hurricane force winds and two wind maxima had already set up, and my first comment was "this is not very impressive so far, maybe we all jumped too quickly on the cat 4 talk". Well, it was just a few short minutes later when that next set of MINOBS came in that I and all of us were floored by what we saw, and then again minutes later from the 901 pressure. At that time, sleep was the last thing on my mind as the adrenaline kept rushing through my body. Shortly thereafter the special advisory 150 mph came out, and thats when I decided to turn in. I thought I'd wake up to a cat 5 given this trend. However, I was seeing an increasing frequency of posts about how Gilbert's record could be in jeopardy and could be broken. I never posted anything, but I thought "you people are crazy, this is about to peak".

Well, I awoke early in the morning (6 am here) and turned on the local news. The weathercast had just started. The met brought up the Wilma graphic, and there it was, in what was (at least to me) an unbelieveably huge font "884 mbs". The 175 mph Cat 5 line right below it went completely unnoticed to me and I immediately jumped up out of bed. Of course just minutes later I was here on my PC and checking the latest.

Certainly one of the most unbelieveable, historic, and memorable weather events I or anyone else here will have ever lived to see...
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#9 Postby Brent » Sun Oct 30, 2005 11:50 pm

I was sitting here looking at recon observations and literally fell out of the chair when the 162 kt report came out. Of course it got a lot worse... I jumped out of bed the next morning when I saw the 882 mb.
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#10 Postby RattleMan » Sun Oct 30, 2005 11:57 pm

I was actually on vacation in Washington D.C. (my normal home is in Arizona), left when Wilma was still 98L.INVEST. When I got to D.C., I kept a close eye on Wilma. When I first turned on the TV when I got there, I turned to the Weather Channel (best info I could get while there, had no computer with me), and I think it was TD24. I continued to monitor it, and went to sleep on August 18th around 11:30 PM ET. I woke up the next morning around 8 AM, and the Tropical Update wasn't for another 50 minutes, so I went to go get some food and drink, brought it back to the room, and drank. Then, at 8:50 AM, I turned to the Weather Channel for the update. I was drinking something at the time. When I saw "882 mb", I choked on my drink and was dumbfounded.

Wilma will have a truely amazing legacy for many years to come...
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#11 Postby thunderchief » Mon Oct 31, 2005 12:21 am

I went to class as the eye had just begun to show, this was at about 6PM est and pressure was at 954 from what I remember... got home at about 10pm and checked IR again and was pretty surprised to see the ultra-cold cloud tops and that little eye. I was like "thats interesting". I wasnt completely shocked till the next aircraft went through the eye and reported 901mb. We knew the storm was likely going to intensify to a 4 or a 5, but that rapid and that low wasnt quite what I had expected.
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#12 Postby superfly » Mon Oct 31, 2005 4:14 am

This kind of RI happens probably once every 50 years. Only other times I can remember anything close to this type of pressure drop was Gilbert and the 35 LBH.
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#13 Postby wxwatcher91 » Mon Oct 31, 2005 6:41 am

~Floydbuster wrote:I was up all night watching it. I was talking to Senor Pepr...the pressure dropped from 943 mb to 901 mb to 892 mb to 884 mb to 882 mb.


yeah I'm never going to forget those numbers... 970 to 956 to 943 to 901 to 892 to 884 to 882

I went to bed after the 11pm advisory knowing Wilma was in rapid strengthening mode but did not expect at all what I heard on my weather radio at 5 the next morning.
seriously, hearing that was the equivilant of 10 cups of black coffee. I checked out all the advisories to see what she did overnight and also the vortex messages. I will never forget those numbers...
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#14 Postby brunota2003 » Mon Oct 31, 2005 9:44 am

Remember this:
ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL CCA
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE WILMA DISCUSSION NUMBER 16 CORRECTED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT WED OCT 19 2005

...TO USE THE PROPER WORD...RELAYED...

IN ADDITION TO THE SPECTACULAR CLOUD PATTERN OBSERVED ON SATELLITE
...AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE MEASURED 168 KNOTS AT 700 MB
AND ESTIMATED A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 884 MB EXTRAPOLATED FROM 700MB.
UNOFFICIALLY...THE METEOROLOGIST ON BOARD THE PLANE RELAYED AN
EXTRAPOLATED 881 MB PRESSURE AND MEASURED 884 MB WITH A DROPSONDE.
THIS IS ALL IN ASSOCIATION WITH A VERY SMALL EYE THAT HAS BEEN
OSCILLATING BETWEEN 2 AND 4 N MI DURING EYE PENETRATIONS.
THIS IS
PROBABLY THE LOWEST MINIMUM PRESSURE EVER OBSERVED IN THE ATLANTIC
BASIN AND IS FOLLOWED BY THE 888 MB MINIMUM PRESSURE ASSOCIATED
WITH HURRICANE GILBERT IN 1988. HOWEVER...ONE MUST BE VERY CAREFUL
BEFORE IT IS DECLARED A RECORD MINIMUM PRESSURE UNTIL A FULL AND
DETAILED CALIBRATION OF THE INSTRUMENTS AND CALCULATIONS IS
PERFORMED. SO PLEASE DO NOT JUMP INTO CONCLUSIONS YET...BE PATIENT.
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#15 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Oct 31, 2005 9:49 am

I don't know why around 3 AM in the morning I decided to wake up. Thereafter, I decided to see the 2 AM advisory expecting to find a major hurricane, but I found much, much more than what I expected. I couldn't believe how fast this storm was deepening, it was incredible. After this I decided to wait for the 5 AM advisory, and then I went to sleep again. I think that was the day that Storm2K was the most active at 3 - 5 AM ever! Just incredible.
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#16 Postby brunota2003 » Mon Oct 31, 2005 9:52 am

And this incredible dropsonde report:


000

UZNT13 KNHC 190849

XXAA 69088 99171 70823 04572 99884 27023 17023 00/// ///// /////
92/// ///// ///// 85349 24619 18519 70069 26469 88999 77999
31313 09608 80800
61616 AF308 0724A WILMA OB 17
62626 EYE SPL 1707N08232W 0803 MBL WND 18520 AEV 20507 DLM WND 19
514 884766 WL150 18022 081 =
XXBB 69088 99171 70823 04572 00884 27023 11850 24619 22846 24422
33824 27260 44804 28463 55697 26470
21212 00884 17023 11850 18519 22822 20514 33810 19511 44802 21510
55766 17003 66697 06507
31313 09608 80800
61616 AF308 0724A WILMA OB 17
62626 EYE SPL 1707N08232W 0803 MBL WND 18520 AEV 20507 DLM WND 19
514 884766 WL150 18022 081 =
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#17 Postby brunota2003 » Mon Oct 31, 2005 9:55 am

Then the incredible vortex data message that followed:
URNT12 KNHC 190835
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 19/08:00:30Z
B. 17 deg 03 min N
082 deg 20 min W
C. 700 mb 2082 m
D. NA kt
E. NA deg nm
F. 320 deg 166 kt
G. 221 deg 003 nm
H. 884 mb
I. 10 C/ 3073 m
J. 24 C/ 3043 m
K. 10 C/ NA
L. CLOSED
M. C4
N. 12345/ 7
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF308 0724A WILMA OB 16
MAX FL WIND 168 KT SE QUAD 06:10:20 Z
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#18 Postby brunota2003 » Mon Oct 31, 2005 9:57 am

And you cant forget the incredibly small eye, 2 MILES across, as shown by this Vortex Data Message:
URNT12 KNHC 190648
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 19/06:11:10Z
B. 16 deg 58 min N
082 deg 11 min W
C. 700 mb 2132 m
D. NA kt
E. NA deg nm
F. 202 deg 168 kt
G. 109 deg 003 nm
H. EXTRAP 892 mb
I. 10 C/ 3058 m
J. 24 C/ 3034 m
K. 11 C/ NA
L. CLOSED
M. C2
N. 12345/ 7
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF308 0724A WILMA OB 12
MAX FL WIND 168 KT SE QUAD 06:10:20 Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 700 MB
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#19 Postby Hyperstorm » Tue Nov 01, 2005 12:42 pm

Something very unusual that night is that I decided to stay up later than usual. I never do that, so that was something strange. I can tell you that I was expecting some rapid deepening due to the VERY large expanse of the extremely cold cloud tops that are rarely seen in Atlantic cyclones, plus the formation of a pinhole eye right in the center of the central dense overcast. However, never did I expect the report that came in shortly before 1 am.

Even though I had the computer turned on, I tuned to The Weather Channel to watch a historic 12:50 am Tropical Update. Warren Madden was on and I saw that he had a paper in his hand. I knew that meant that he had new information to share. He started by pointing out with a shocking look on his face what a change has occured over the previous 2 hours! He said: "What you have on your screen is OLD information." He continued: "I'm going to read to you the information from 11pm..." He stressed every single detail from 11pm including coordinates, distance, winds, movement, pressure. He said: "Now, you can throw that information away. In my hand I have the LATEST information just received from the 53rd Weather Reconnaissance..." I was starting to think: "He must have some very shocking information. The pressure has probably dropped to the 920s." Was I wrong! When he said that the central pressure has dropped to 901 millibars with a shaky voice and a scary-looking face, my heart stopped. I thought that it just had to be an error from the plane. How can a hurricane strengthen so rapidly in a few hours? He then proceeded to announce that the eye was only 4 miles across. That was also a very shocking moment since it is extremely rare to have such tiny eyes.

For me, the most shocking was the drop in pressure from the 940s to 901. After the report was confirmed with a 1am special advisory issued by Avila, I knew that this hurricane was going to break the all-time record in the Atlantic held by Gilbert. It just had to happen with such a drop in pressure and the satellite signature showing no erosion.

In summary, I can only say that it was definitely a historic night for everyone involved in the meteorological world...A historic year for that matter. We can only hope that the 2006 hurricane season is not as intense as this all-time record breaking year...
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#20 Postby quandary » Tue Nov 01, 2005 1:18 pm

That was a very memorable night. I had court the next day at 9:00 AM over an hour away. Since I am in college, my mom was going to have to drive from DC to Charlottesville/UVa and then back up an hour, so she would have to leave at around 5:00 AM. I remember that I should've gone to bed early that night, since Wednesday is my absolutely hardest day of classes (8 hours) and I had to go to court. However, like most other nights, I was kept up until about 1:00 at least. Before deciding to go to bed, I visited Storm2K just to see if Wilma had done anything meriting a Special Discussion.

There were the posts about 901mb. I seriously did not believe it. It had to be a fluke that some member had decided to go crazy over. But, it was not a fluke. It was only when highly credible members (the mets, not say anything bad about other members, just when the mets say things you basically know it to be fact) starting validating this did I really believe it.
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