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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.
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brunota2003
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UNOFFICIAL, JUST MY OPINION: Really bad, beats this year...
Last edited by brunota2003 on Tue Nov 01, 2005 8:11 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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I doubt many of us are qualified to say anything one way or the other. Therefore, I'm assume almost every comment in this thread will based on non-scientific "hunches", which as inaccurate as anything. I concede that I'm not current enough on ENSO cycle forecasts and other such tools used to lead to hurricane seasonal forecasts, so I yield to those who can give an accurate forecast.
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brunota2003 wrote:UNOFFICIAL, JUST MY OPINION: Really bad, beats this year...
Last year I thought that season (Charley,Frances,Jeanne,Ivan etc.) would be the worst I had seen OR ever will see for a long long while.
Then 2005 comes and takes the cake... so I dunno you may be on to something there!!
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brunota2003
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I hope my forcast is WAY TO HIGH!!!tbstorm wrote:brunota2003 wrote:UNOFFICIAL, JUST MY OPINION: Really bad, beats this year...
Last year I thought that season (Charley,Frances,Jeanne,Ivan etc.) would be the worst I had seen OR ever will see for a long long while.
Then 2005 comes and takes the cake... so I dunno you may be on to something there!!
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wxmann_91
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Yeah, this is a hunch, but at least it has a bit more scientific basis than some of the other hunches in this thread...
The last quiet cycle lasted from 1970 to 1994. Note that the year immediately before and immediately after that quiet cycle were extremely active years. Though this is only one cycle (I have yet to look at data before then to see when the active cycle that ended in 1969 started), my hunch is that quiet cycles begin immediately after an extremely active year. Likewise, active cycles usually begin and end on very active notes.
Again, just a hunch, one cycle means virtually nothing in the world of meteorology, need a trend or several cycles to determine so. But, using this theory, 2006 would be a surprisingly quiet year.
I bet you though that there is a 99% chance that I'll eat my words by the end of 2006.
The last quiet cycle lasted from 1970 to 1994. Note that the year immediately before and immediately after that quiet cycle were extremely active years. Though this is only one cycle (I have yet to look at data before then to see when the active cycle that ended in 1969 started), my hunch is that quiet cycles begin immediately after an extremely active year. Likewise, active cycles usually begin and end on very active notes.
Again, just a hunch, one cycle means virtually nothing in the world of meteorology, need a trend or several cycles to determine so. But, using this theory, 2006 would be a surprisingly quiet year.
I bet you though that there is a 99% chance that I'll eat my words by the end of 2006.
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wxmann_91 wrote:I bet you though that there is a 99% chance that I'll eat my words by the end of 2006.
If you say there's a 99% that you'll eat your words about a quiet year next year, then that means that you have 99% confidence that it WON'T be a quiet year. That's pretty darn confident!
Of course I'm just messin' with ya, just found it funny! Here's my forecast: I thing there's a 100% chance it'll be lower, higher, or exactly at normal activity levels.
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CharleySurvivor
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fasterdisaster
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cycloneye
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I wont make my 2006 forecast until late april so dont expect from me my take on it until then as I analize the different factors that will lead the 2006 season to another active one,an average season or a below normal season.
By the way for the members who may want to post their numbers for the 2006 season you can wait until march 15 when the poll will be opened until may 31.
I will bump the 2005 season poll on november 30th for the members to see which one was the closest to what in reallity occured in terms of the numbers.
By the way for the members who may want to post their numbers for the 2006 season you can wait until march 15 when the poll will be opened until may 31.
I will bump the 2005 season poll on november 30th for the members to see which one was the closest to what in reallity occured in terms of the numbers.
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wxwatcher91
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[JUST KIDDING]
all sub 900 storms with winds over 200mph
one new storm everyday.
monster storm will have min central pressure of 684mb and maximum sustained winds of 800mph and will have tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 2000 miles from the center.
[/JUST KIDDING]
seriously I think based on trends, we will see something close to this year.
I bet that activity of this year will spill over to next year and I wouldnt be too suprised to see 2006 have its first storm in January.
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
TDs and above: = or >20
TSs and above: = or >18
H1s and above: = or >10
H2s and above: = or >8
H3s and above: = or >6
H4s and above: = or >4
H5s and above: = or >1
all sub 900 storms with winds over 200mph
one new storm everyday.
monster storm will have min central pressure of 684mb and maximum sustained winds of 800mph and will have tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 2000 miles from the center.
[/JUST KIDDING]
seriously I think based on trends, we will see something close to this year.
I bet that activity of this year will spill over to next year and I wouldnt be too suprised to see 2006 have its first storm in January.
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
TDs and above: = or >20
TSs and above: = or >18
H1s and above: = or >10
H2s and above: = or >8
H3s and above: = or >6
H4s and above: = or >4
H5s and above: = or >1
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brunota2003
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ouch, that hurt, stop slapping my hand...CharleySurvivor wrote:Anyone saying 2006 will be worst then '05 will get a little slap on a hand from me!
EDIT: changed slalling to slapping...
Last edited by brunota2003 on Tue Nov 01, 2005 8:41 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Tampa Bay Hurricane
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I think 2006 will be pretty intense.
Last edited by Tampa Bay Hurricane on Tue Nov 01, 2005 9:23 pm, edited 9 times in total.
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cycloneye
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Bgator wrote:Dont even want to think of it now...LOL>.....
You have to turn the avatar much more smaller.
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cycloneye
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Ok all is fine now at thread.
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