Arlene: Another Hint of a "Gulf Season?"

[Wpwxguy]

Also for anyone interested you can view the GFS updated as it comes out here, in an easy to understand format. http://wxweb.meteostar.com/models/misc/index.shtml

[donsutherland1]

Cyclonaut,

Yes, Florida was hit by three hurricanes in 1964 (Cleo, Dora, and Isbell) and Betsy in 1965 was a major hurricane. At this time--and we'll see what the reanalysis project does with regard to the 1960s next year--all three 1964 hurricanes are listed as Category 2 storms at landfall. Hilda, which made landfall in Louisiana, is currently listed as the only major hurricane for 1964.

FWIW, last year Florida experienced hurricane conditions 4 times (3 were major hurricanes at landfall). Texas experienced hurricane conditions 4 times in 1886.

[donsutherland1]

Frederic79,

Since 1851, Mississippi has experienced major hurricane conditions every 17.1 years, on average. Elena (1985) was the last major storm there. So, from that statistic, Mississippi may be coming due. However, in the past, Mississippi waited almost 56 years for a major hurricane strike, so there is precedent for a longer wait. Still, people should be prepared.

Louisiana has been struck once every 9.1 years. Its last major storm was Andrew (1992), 12 years ago. In addition, its longest wait--at least since 1851--has been 23 years. If this data is representative, Louisiana might be struck again within little more than a decade or sooner. Given the low-lying land, people should be especially prepared to evacuate if such a storm threatens. The nightmare scenario would be another "Last Island"-type disaster, only with a much larger number of people.

[frederic79]

Don,

Dr. Gray says we are in a cycle of increased activity that spans several years. If that's true, perhaps the 57 years MS went without a major storm occurred during a span of overall decreased activity. I would tend to think the odds of a major direct hit would be somewhat higher when:

1- It has been 20 years since a major strike
2- We are currently in a cycle of increased hurricane activity
3- Experts predict 15 named storms this year alone in the Atlantic basin

It would be interesting to compare the total average number of storms for the 57 quiet years you mentioned to the total average we've seen since 1995, when activity increased dramatically. Data for that may be limited, though. I agree that it's impossible to conclude just how long it will be before MS is struck again, based on the overall picture.

Just an aside... two of most interesting ingredients, to me, are warmer than average Atlantic SST's and the location of the Bermuda high. When storms do organize, these will play a big factor in intensity and steering.
However, I don't expect to see another Cat. 5 this year at all. We had Isabel in 2003 and Ivan in 2004 at Cat. 5 strength. It would be unprecedented to see another like that for the third straight year.

[vbhoutex]

Don,

Dr. Gray says we are in a cycle of increased activity that spans several years. If that's true, perhaps the 57 years MS went without a major storm occurred during a span of overall decreased activity. I would tend to think the odds of a major direct hit would be somewhat higher when:

1- It has been 20 years since a major strike
2- We are currently in a cycle of increased hurricane activity
3- Experts predict 15 named storms this year alone in the Atlantic basin

It would be interesting to compare the total average number of storms for the 57 quiet years you mentioned to the total average we've seen since 1995, when activity increased dramatically. Data for that may be limited, though. I agree that it's impossible to conclude just how long it will be before MS is struck again, based on the overall picture.

Just an aside... two of most interesting ingredients, to me, are warmer than average Atlantic SST's and the location of the Bermuda high. When storms do organize, these will play a big factor in intensity and steering.
However, I don't expect to see another Cat. 5 this year at all. We had Isabel in 2003 and Ivan in 2004 at Cat. 5 strength. It would be unprecedented to see another like that for the third straight year.

I hope you are right about that, especially in reference to landfalling. But, with the warmer than normal SST's especially in the MDR, it would not be a surprise to me either.

[dhweather]

I'm not so sure about that - we really don't have much accurate data
on the strength and frequency of storms, particularly beyond 50 years
back.

[baygirl_1]

Took a day off yesterday to recuperate and look what happens!
I appreciate all the research and interesting posts. No offense to Don et al, but I hope y'all are wrong! However, I've lived on the coast all my life and know that:
A. Anything is possible
B. We need to be ready for the worst and hope for the best
C. We must pay attention to the experts
Just a few years back, it seemed that all the storms hit the Carolinas! Guess it may be our turn. I know y'all will continue to keep us posted.
On a lighter note, one of our local radio stations is using Jimmy Buffett's song, "Trying to Reason with Hurricane Season" when they lead-in to their storm reports this year. I love the lyrics to this song:
"And now I must confess, I could use some rest... I can't run at this pace very long... Yes it's quite insane, I think it hurts my brain... But it cleans me out and then I can go on."
Guess we need to rest whenever we can during this predicted-to-be-long-and-active season

[dwg71]

I just checked back in, and want to apologize for using the word "manipulate", thats not what I wanted to do come across as " you manipulated the data to get a desired outcome". My point is this I could review Hurricane data from the last 50 years and make a strong case that this will be an inactive season with little activity on the Gulf Coast, or I could make a strong arguement for an active season with much activity on the Gulf Coast. Its impossible to predict with any certainty. Even when experts put a percentage for a particular area for a hit, it is alway a much more likely chance that it wont take a hit. We just dont know.

[donsutherland1]

Dwg71,

No offense was taken.

Best wishes.

[donsutherland1]

Baygirl1,

I hope that all the remaining storms that form will avoid landfall. Such storms, especially the strong ones, cause too much damage and pose too much danger to people. Unfortunately, seasons don't work out that way. So, as you so well put it, "We ned to be ready for the worst and hope for the best."

[whereverwx]

Excellent analysis. It truly was a season for the Gulf and a very terrible one.

[wxmann_91]

However, I don't expect to see another Cat. 5 this year at all. We had Isabel in 2003 and Ivan in 2004 at Cat. 5 strength. It would be unprecedented to see another like that for the third straight year.

Sure...

[vaffie]

However, I don't expect to see another Cat. 5 this year at all. We had Isabel in 2003 and Ivan in 2004 at Cat. 5 strength. It would be unprecedented to see another like that for the third straight year.

Sure...

In retrospect , that is really funny, isn't it? Katrina, Rita, Wilma! Sheesh! How many CAT 5 storms were there in the Gulf this year!

[Andrew92]

However, I don't expect to see another Cat. 5 this year at all. We had Isabel in 2003 and Ivan in 2004 at Cat. 5 strength. It would be unprecedented to see another like that for the third straight year.

Sure...

In retrospect , that is really funny, isn't it? Katrina, Rita, Wilma! Sheesh! How many CAT 5 storms were there in the Gulf this year!

What I find scary is that they all end with the same letter......the letter A. In the future, I'm wary of storms ending with the letter A!

-Andrew92

[southerngale]

Dhweather,

Of course, sometimes there can be prolonged spells where a state doesn't experience major hurricane conditions. The longest stretch for any state that has experienced 3 or more such storms since 1851 is 106 years for Georgia. Georgia has not experienced major hurricane conditions since 1898.

Don - Indeed, if anyone has a false sense of security, it's Georgia coastal residents.

As for us, I suspect our time is near. We've dodged several bullets.
Louisiana and Texas are really about due as well - this might just be the year.

Dang, got a crystal ball over there?


Well Don, great analysis...too bad you were dead on.

[bahamaswx]

A lot of old posts being bumped up for some reason.

Nice analysis, however. It was definitely on the money as to what was in store for us this season.

[WindRunner]

MGC,

Although it might be an unpopular idea, I truly prefer that the season would see only "fish storms." Unfortunately, that doesn't appear to be likely.

The evolving summer pattern seems to favor a GOM-season. Arlene is not the cause of such a season but merely a symptom of how things are evolving.

FWIW, since 1851, MS has experienced major hurricane conditions every 17.1 years. The last time MS saw a major hurricane was 1985 (Elena). The longest wait was almost 56 years, so it's really difficult to speculate just how due MS really might be.

Whether or not there are cycles where certain areas are favored for such storms remains to be seen. Dr. Gray et. al., appear to have found cycles at least with respect to Florida.

Very due!

[f5]

However, I don't expect to see another Cat. 5 this year at all. We had Isabel in 2003 and Ivan in 2004 at Cat. 5 strength. It would be unprecedented to see another like that for the third straight year.

Sure...

In retrospect , that is really funny, isn't it? Katrina, Rita, Wilma! Sheesh! How many CAT 5 storms were there in the Gulf this year!

the thing is in terms of pressure Katrina,Rita and Wilma all outdid Ivan and Isabel in terms of pressure and wind speed