THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 7.3S 97.7E IS
NOW LOCATED NEAR 7.4S 98.4E, APPROXIMATELY 290 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF
THE COCOS ISLANDS. EARLIER MULTI-SPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGES AND A
041110Z QUIKSCAT PASS DEPICT A WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) SOUTHWEST OF SUMATRA. CONVECTION CONTINUES TO CYCLE NEAR
THIS LLCC, HOWEVER, UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS THE DISTURBANCE
REMAINS IN AN AREA OF MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED TO AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS
REMAINS POOR.
BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
WESTERN AUSTRALIA REGIONAL OFFICE
TROPICAL CYCLONE OUTLOOK FOR THE CENTRAL INDIAN OCEAN
Issued at 12:00pm WST on Friday the 4th of November 2005
For the area between LONGITUDES 90 - 110 EAST
Tropical Low
Location :near 08S 097E
about 430 kilometres [230 nautical miles]
north of Cocos Islands
Central Pressure :1006hPa
Recent movement :west southwest at 10 kilometres per hour [6 knots]
DEVELOPMENT POTENTIAL
Saturday : low
Sunday : low
Monday : moderate
REMARKS - most likely movement of the low is towards the west southwest next 72
hours, slowly intensifying.
** NOTE: Development potential is an estimate of the probability of **
** tropical cyclone development within a 24 hour period. **
** LOW = 10% or less MODERATE = 20-40% HIGH = 50% or more **
The system continues to organize and it could become a tropical depression in the next 12 to 24 hours even though the JTWC mentions the area as POOR and Australia saying development possibility is low for the next 24 hours.
