Let's open the thread Global Warming ...Yes or No?

[x-y-no]

If it was global warming, there'd be an increase in tropical activity in other basins (globally). Instead, activity has actually been on the decline in recent years. The increase in tropical storms is because the Atlantic is in an active cycle right now.

Yep, that sounds about right to me. Also, the point made earlier about the volume of greenhouse gasses emitted by volcanoes makes a lot of sense. I myself have stated this apparently largely ignored fact on several occasions in various fora.

It's not an ignored issue! It has been examined and falsified in several independent ways. Most definitively, the isotopic ratios of GHGs observed in the atmosphere are quite different from what is emitted by volcanic activity, and almost exactly what one would expect if the entire observed increase in GHGs were due to human activity.

[terstorm1012]

Doesn't volcanic activity have the opposite effect---cooling?

The Mt. Pinatubo eruption of '91 comes to mind.

[HURAKAN]

Doesn't volcanic activity have the opposite effect---cooling?

The Mt. Pinatubo eruption of '91 comes to mind.

It will cool the planet if there is a big eruption, where the atmosphere is blocked, not allowing sun rays to pass through the atmosphere, therefore, cooling the planet. But if there is just a normal sleeping volcano emitting gases, then there won't be a cooling but will probably help on Warming.

[x-y-no]

Doesn't volcanic activity have the opposite effect---cooling?

The Mt. Pinatubo eruption of '91 comes to mind.

It will cool the planet if there is a big eruption, where the atmosphere is blocked, not allowing sun rays to pass through the atmosphere, therefore, cooling the planet. But if there is just a normal sleeping volcano emitting gases, then there won't be a cooling but will probably help on Warming.

That's correct. The cooling effect comes from eruptions large enough to send significant amounts of particulates up into the stratosphere.

It's also correct that volcanic activity contributes to global warming. In fact, without it the Earth would be permanently frozen, since the natural warming amounts to a good 30 degrees celsius, IIRC. But this contribution is stable across any reasonably short timescale. The observed very rapid increase in atmospheric GHGs has been definitively shown by isotopic analysis not to be related to volcanic activity.

[no advance]

What is alarming is no matter what the USA does it does not matter any more. China and other developing countries are booming and will only worsen the problem .

[x-y-no]

What is alarming is no matter what the USA does it does not matter any more. China and other developing countries are booming and will only worsen the problem .

Which is why something better than Kyoto is needed - a scheme which includes these developing nations in a cap-and-trade market mechanism which would include credits for development and transfer and development of alternative energy technologies.

China and India aren't any happier with their rapidly growing dependence on fossil fuels than the rest of the world is. They just don't have adequate alternatives.

[Downdraft]

Well here's another tact to take too. How about the destruction of the worlds rain forests? That certainly affects climatic conditions. I'm not sure if it has any affect on global warming though.

[x-y-no]

Well here's another tact to take too. How about the destruction of the worlds rain forests? That certainly affects climatic conditions. I'm not sure if it has any affect on global warming though.

It has some relatively small GW impact, if my understanding is correct, because replacing rainforest with savannah or agricultural fields reduces the total carbon stored. IIRC though, that's a substantially smaller effect than burning fossil fuels.

There is another climate impact, though, which is likely of concern to us in North America. I don't think we know for sure if this trend will continue, but the last few years have been dry in the Amazon, and this year has the largest drought in 40 years or so. There appears to be some coupling of drought in the Amazon with drought the following growing season in North America. We'll see if that happens next year.

Long-term, if we were to lose a majority of the Amazon rainforest, this would have quite large implications for precipitation pattern threoughout the tropical and subtropical Atlantic region.

[terstorm1012]

x-y-no...you're becoming the board climatologist!