Tropical Cyclone 02S

[senorpepr]

I've added links concerning this low on the S2K tropical page: http://tropicalupdates.nhcwx.com/

More will probably be added when it's officially upgraded.

One note: looks like the NRL server hasn't updated. Therefore the "floaters" on both NRL and the S2K page are from 02S of last October...

[HURAKAN]

HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
CENTRE PERTH AT 1857UTC 6 NOVEMBER 2005

GALE WARNING FOR THE WESTERN AREA

Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the
averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.

SITUATION
At 1800UTC Tropical low was located within 30 nautical miles of
Latitude twelve decimal zero south [12.0S]
Longitude ninety one decimal zero east [91.0E]
Recent movement : west southwest at 12 knots.
Maximum winds : 30 knots.
Central pressure : 995 hPa.


AREA AFFECTED
Within 90 nautical miles of the centre, extending to 120 nautical miles in
western quadrants.

FORECAST
Low may develop into a tropical cyclone within the next 6 to 18 hours causing
clockwise winds 30/40 knots very rough seas and moderate swell.

At 0600UTC 07 November: within 40 nautical miles of 13.1S 88.7E
992 hPa. Winds to 40 knots near centre.
At 1800UTC 07 November: within 70 nautical miles of 14.4S 86.2E
992 hPa. Winds to 40 knots near centre.

The next warning will be issued by La Reunion RSMC.

WEATHER PERTH

TC 02S continues to deepen but no upgrade from BoM.

[P.K.]

And there won't be an upgrade from the BOM as this is transfering to Meteo France for the next advisory.

[HURAKAN]

WTXS31 PGTW 062100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
061800Z --- NEAR 11.7S 91.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.7S 91.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 12.4S 89.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 13.4S 87.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 14.5S 85.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 16.0S 83.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
062100Z POSITION NEAR 11.9S 91.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02S (NONAME), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 310 NM
WEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 061800Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 070900Z AND 072100Z.//


TC 02S weakens to 40 knots.

[HURAKAN]

06/2030 UTC 11.2S 90.6E T3.0/3.0 02S -- South Indian Ocean

NOTHING NEW.

[P.K.]

Upgraded to TD4. Track

Lundi, 07 novembre 2005, 10h33 (UTC+4)

PAS D'ALERTE EN COURS A LA REUNION
*****************************************************

NATURE DES SYSTEMES DEPRESSIONNAIRES TROPICAUX
PRESENTS SUR LE SUD-OUEST DE L'OCEAN INDIEN


DEPRESSION TROPICALE 04-20052006

PRESSION ESTIMEE AU CENTRE : 997 HPA.
POSITION LE 07 NOVEMBRE A 10 HEURES LOCALES: 13.2 SUD / 89.7 EST
(TREIZE DEGRES DEUX SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT-NEUF DEGRES SEPT EST).

DISTANCE DES COTES REUNIONNAISES: 3695 KM A L'EST-NORD-EST
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-OUEST A 16 KM/H.

[P.K.]

The estimated pressure of TD4 has increased 1hPa since the morning.

Lundi, 07 novembre 2005, 16h24 (UTC+4)

PAS D'ALERTE EN COURS A LA REUNION
*****************************************************


NATURE DES SYSTEMES DEPRESSIONNAIRES TROPICAUX
PRESENTS SUR LE SUD-OUEST DE L'OCEAN INDIEN


DEPRESSION TROPICALE 04-20052006

PRESSION ESTIMEE AU CENTRE : 998 HPA.
POSITION LE 07 NOVEMBRE A 16 HEURES LOCALES: 14.2 SUD / 88.5 EST
(QUATORZE DEGRES DEUX SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT-HUIT DEGRES CINQ EST).

DISTANCE DES COTES REUNIONNAISES: 3535 KM A L'EST-NORD-EST
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-OUEST A 22 KM/H.

[senorpepr]

I have the new Meteo-France links and the fixed floaters for 04R on the S2K Tropical page: http://tropicalupdates.nhcwx.com/

[P.K.]

Also downgraded from a TD.

Mardi, 08 novembre 2005, 10h16 (UTC+4)

PAS D'ALERTE EN COURS A LA REUNION
*****************************************************

PERTURBATION TROPICALE 04-20052006

PRESSION ESTIMEE AU CENTRE : 1000 HPA.
POSITION LE 08 NOVEMBRE A 10 HEURES LOCALES: 16.5 SUD / 83.2 EST
(SEIZE DEGRES CINQ SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT-TROIS DEGRES DEUX EST).

DISTANCE DES COTES REUNIONNAISES: 2920 KM A L'EST
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-SUD-OUEST A 27 KM/H.