Tropical Depression 23W at WPAC

[cycloneye]

ABPW10 PGTW 051600
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN
/AND SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/051600Z-060600ZNOV2005//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA)
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:NONE
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:

(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 5.8N
142.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 7.2N 142.3E, APPROXIMATELY 450 NM
EAST OF PALAU. A 050907Z SSM/I SATELLITE PASS DEPICTS A
DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) NEAR THE DEEPEST
CONVECTION. THE DEVELOPING CIRCULATION IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
BROAD CYCLONIC TURNING OF THE MONSOON TROUGH, AND THE CONSOLIDA-
TION OF THIS LLCC IS ALSO EVIDENT IN INCREASING VALUES OF 850 MB
VORTICITY OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS
THE DISTURBANCE REMAINS IN A REGION OF LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR WITH FAVORABLE OUTFLOW DIRECTLY OVER THE SYSTEM. MAX-
IMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO FAIR.




Let's see if the cyclone #23 in the WPAC in 2005 is born from this disturbance.

[hurricanefreak1988]

Uh oh. I hope they don't catch fire while we're quiet. We're so close to wrapping up the biggest upset ever in the history of the tropics, so it'd be a heartbreaker if they pulled ahead just before the finish line.

[HurricaneBill]

Oh dear. Could this become a potential Philippines typhoon?

Isn't it that time of year?

[HURAKAN]

NOGAPS FORECASTS A TROPICAL CYCLONE TO IMPACT NORTHERN PHILIPPINES IN LESS THAN A WEEK.

[HURAKAN]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 7.5N
140.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.5N 139.7E, APPROXIMATELY 110 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF YAP. THE 060834Z QUIKSCAT PASS INDICATES A LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS IN THE NORTHEAST
QUADRANT. RECENT SSMI SATELLITE PASSES REVEAL THE CONVECTION BE-
COMING ORGANIZED OVER THE LLCC. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS THE
SYSTEM IS IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
WITH FAVORABLE POLEWARD OUTFLOW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UP-
GRADED TO GOOD

[cycloneye]

st -1 -2 -3
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
1 AM GUAM LST MON NOV 7 2005

PMZ171-070800-
YAP-
1 AM GUAM LST MON NOV 7 2005

...TROPICAL DISTURBANCE DEVELOPING SOUTHEAST OF YAP...

A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE IS DEVELOPING IN WESTERN YAP STATE AND MAY
BE UPGRADED TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

AT MIDNIGHT GUAM LST...THE POORLY-DEFINED CIRCULATION CENTER OF THE
DISTURBANCE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 9 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE
140 DEGREES EAST ROUGHLY 140 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF YAP...100
MILES SOUTH OF ULITHI...100 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF FAIS...AND
40 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF SOROL.

THIS DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY CONTAINS SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20 TO 25 MPH
AND HAS BEEN MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 9 MPH DURING THE PAST 12
HOURS. THE DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. IF THIS SYSTEM BEHAVES AS FORECAST...IT WILL PASS
VERY CLOSE TO YAP EARLY TONIGHT.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS NEAR THE CIRCULATION CENTER...
CURRENTLY AFFECTING SOROL...ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO YAP...ULITHI
AND FAIS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. RAINFALL COULD BE AS MUCH AS 4 TO
6 INCHES. THIS WOULD PROMOTE FLOODING OF LOW-LYING AREAS. UNTIL THE
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE PASSES...INTER-ISLAND TRAVEL SHOULD BE AVOIDED
DUE TO ROUGH SEAS.

CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE BY LATE TUESDAY AS THIS SYSTEM DRIFTS AWAY
TO THE NORTHWEST INTO THE PHILIPPINE SEA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH OR WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED IMMEDIATELY FOR
WESTERN YAP STATE IF THIS SYSTEM DEVELOPS INTO A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION. RESIDENTS AND VISITORS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE LATEST
WEATHER INFORMATION BY STAYING TUNED TO LOCAL MEDIA SOURCES OR
COMMUNICATION DEVICES.

$$

HENDRICKS




Almost a TD.

[HURAKAN]

LOOKS VERY, VERY NICE!

[cycloneye]

MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/061351ZNOV2005//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 23W WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
070600Z --- NEAR 10.7N 137.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 10.7N 137.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 11.9N 136.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 13.0N 133.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 13.8N 131.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 14.4N 128.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 15.2N 122.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
070900Z POSITION NEAR 11.0N 137.5E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 23W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 75 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF YAP, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 10
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND
CANCELS REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN 061351ZNOV2005 TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PGTW 061400). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 070600Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 071500Z,
072100Z, 080300Z AND 080900Z.//





Phillippines on the track.

[P.K.]

You've given this a name a bit early Luis given the JMA haven't even made this a TD yet.

[cycloneye]

You've given this a name a bit early Luis given the JMA haven't even made this a TD yet.

Wow no TD yet from them?

[cycloneye]

MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 23W WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
071200Z --- NEAR 11.5N 137.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.5N 137.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 12.9N 135.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 13.8N 132.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 14.2N 129.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 14.8N 127.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 15.8N 122.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
071500Z POSITION NEAR 11.8N 136.8E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 23W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 130 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF YAP, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
071200Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 072100Z, 080300Z, 080900Z
AND 081500Z.//

[P.K.]

Well it looks like from your post the JTWC only have it at 30kts so it doesn't surprise me that much that there is no upgrade from the JMA yet.

[cycloneye]

Well it looks like from your post the JTWC only have it at 30kts so it doesn't surprise me that much that there is no upgrade from the JMA yet.

When do they (JMA) start to upgrade to TD from 35kts?

[P.K.]

25kts, so I think this is due to the difference between one and ten minute averages and the difference in opinion between differerent meteorologists.

[cycloneye]

25kts, so I think this is due to the difference between one and ten minute averages and the difference in opinion between differerent meteorologists.

Ok thank you for the info.

[senorpepr]

I've added the JTWC and NWS links as well as satellite floaters for 23W on the S2K Tropical page: http://tropicalupdates.nhcwx.com

I'll add JMA links as they become available.

[Aslkahuna]

The period of October through December is the peak time of year for typhoons in the Philippines as most of the really bad ones have hit the Country during those months (there are a few May through July 'phoons that have been bad as well but October through December is generally the worst time).

Steve

[hurricanefreak1988]

It's official: the West Pac is within three. Hopefully we can get one last run going so we can pull away and cap off the upset. I'm worried they will pull ahead at the last moment.

[cycloneye]

MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 23W WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
080000Z --- NEAR 13.3N 135.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.3N 135.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 14.4N 132.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 15.0N 129.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 15.6N 126.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 16.2N 123.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 17.4N 119.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 18.1N 117.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 18.9N 114.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
---
REMARKS:
080300Z POSITION NEAR 13.6N 134.7E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 23W,
LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 280 NM NORTHWEST OF YAP, HAS
TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 080000Z IS 13 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 080900Z, 081500Z, 082100Z AND 090300Z.//


Well P.K JTWC has it now as a Tropical Storm.What does JMA has?

[senorpepr]

Still not even officially a tropical depression from JMA...