Invest 93E

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HURAKAN
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Invest 93E

#1 Postby HURAKAN » Wed Nov 09, 2005 6:08 am

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
4 AM PST WED NOV 9 2005

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC... EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE.

A WESTWARD-MOVING TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED ABOUT 500 MILES SOUTH OF
MANZANILLO. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES WESTWARD.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

Image

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#2 Postby HURAKAN » Wed Nov 09, 2005 7:23 am

09/1145 UTC 13.0N 106.5W T1.0/1.0 93E -- East Pacific Ocean
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#3 Postby cycloneye » Wed Nov 09, 2005 7:52 am

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST (EP932005) ON 20051109 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
051109 1200 051110 0000 051110 1200 051111 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 13.0N 106.7W 13.8N 109.5W 14.6N 111.9W 15.4N 114.0W
BAMM 13.0N 106.7W 13.9N 109.6W 14.8N 112.1W 15.7N 114.5W
LBAR 13.0N 106.7W 13.9N 109.5W 15.4N 112.2W 16.7N 114.3W
SHIP 25KTS 29KTS 34KTS 37KTS
DSHP 25KTS 29KTS 34KTS 37KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
051111 1200 051112 1200 051113 1200 051114 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 16.1N 115.4W 17.0N 116.0W 17.8N 113.9W 19.3N 109.6W
BAMM 16.4N 116.5W 17.5N 118.7W 18.1N 119.7W 17.9N 120.1W
LBAR 18.0N 115.5W 20.0N 115.2W 22.7N 112.8W 25.0N 109.6W
SHIP 38KTS 28KTS 0KTS 0KTS
DSHP 38KTS 28KTS 0KTS 0KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 13.0N LONCUR = 106.7W DIRCUR = 290DEG SPDCUR = 13KT
LATM12 = 12.0N LONM12 = 104.0W DIRM12 = 294DEG SPDM12 = 12KT
LATM24 = 11.1N LONM24 = 101.9W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 0NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1007MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

12:00z Models
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#4 Postby HURAKAN » Wed Nov 09, 2005 8:40 am

TWD:

TROPICAL WAVE FROM 5N TO 17N ALONG 105W IS MOVING W 10-15 KT. A
1010 MB LOW PRES IS ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 12N. SCATTERED MODERATE
TO STRONG CONVECTION IS OCCURRING FROM 11N TO 16N BETWEEN 102W
AND 108W. SOME SLIGHT ORGANIZATION OF THE CONVECTION IS NOTED
NEAR THE LOW CENTER.

Image

This could be the EPAC's last chance to get a named storm. Their possibility of seeing a storm in November is usually less than the Atlantic.
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#5 Postby HURAKAN » Wed Nov 09, 2005 8:51 am

EPAC NOVEMBER STORMS SINCE 1949:

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12 STORMS/55 YEARS (1949 - 2004) = 0.22 STORMS PER YEAR
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#6 Postby bombarderoazul » Wed Nov 09, 2005 11:29 am

This might be their last chance for a storm, tropical depression 16E was a dissapointment.
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#7 Postby SouthFloridawx » Wed Nov 09, 2005 12:12 pm

HURIKAN WHERE DO YOU GET THOSE FROM?
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#8 Postby HalloweenGale » Wed Nov 09, 2005 12:15 pm

Unisys maps, they are good, but they have a few errors, like Lili 1996, and Karl 2004.
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#9 Postby HURAKAN » Wed Nov 09, 2005 2:43 pm

southfloridawx2005 wrote:HURIKAN WHERE DO YOU GET THOSE FROM?


http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/
Last edited by HURAKAN on Wed Nov 09, 2005 2:47 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#10 Postby HURAKAN » Wed Nov 09, 2005 2:46 pm

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
10 AM PST WED NOV 9 2005

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC... EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE.

A WESTWARD-MOVING TROPICAL WAVE IS ACCOMPANIED BY A BROAD AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 700 MILES SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF
BAJA CALIFORNIA. THIS SYSTEM HAS BECOME A LITTLE MORE ORGANIZED
THIS MORNING. ALTHOUGH UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME
GRADUALLY LESS FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...THIS SYSTEM HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO
AS IT MOVES WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY.

FORECASTER PASCH

Image

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
TROPICAL WAVE FROM 10N109W 15N105W MOVING W 15 KT. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 11N-15N BETWEEN 105W-110W. SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS SLOWLY GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED
AND A LOWER TO MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER IS APPARENT NEAR
13N. A TROPICAL DEPRESSION MAY FORM ANYWHERE ALONG THE WAVE
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES WESTWARD.
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#11 Postby HURAKAN » Wed Nov 09, 2005 2:47 pm

HalloweenGale wrote:Unisys maps, they are good, but they have a few errors, like Lili 1996, and Karl 2004.


What kind of errors?
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#12 Postby SouthFloridawx » Wed Nov 09, 2005 2:48 pm

HURAKAN wrote:
southfloridawx2005 wrote:HURIKAN WHERE DO YOU GET THOSE FROM?


http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/


thanx!!!
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#13 Postby Aslkahuna » Wed Nov 09, 2005 3:28 pm

Simone in 1961 developed from the remnants of Hurricane Hattie which crossed over from the Western Caribbean. The remnants of Simone then redeveloped in the BOC into TS Inga.

Steve
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#14 Postby cycloneye » Wed Nov 09, 2005 8:06 pm

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST (EP932005) ON 20051110 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
051110 0000 051110 1200 051111 0000 051111 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 13.3N 108.4W 14.1N 110.9W 14.7N 112.9W 15.2N 114.4W
BAMM 13.3N 108.4W 14.0N 111.2W 14.6N 113.6W 14.8N 115.8W
LBAR 13.3N 108.4W 14.0N 110.8W 14.9N 113.0W 15.6N 115.0W
SHIP 25KTS 29KTS 34KTS 37KTS
DSHP 25KTS 29KTS 34KTS 37KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
051112 0000 051113 0000 051114 0000 051115 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 15.6N 115.4W 16.6N 116.2W 18.4N 115.0W 21.6N 110.9W
BAMM 15.0N 117.7W 15.0N 121.0W 14.9N 124.6W 13.9N 128.3W
LBAR 16.2N 116.3W 17.9N 118.0W 20.9N 118.5W 24.1N 119.1W
SHIP 38KTS 32KTS 28KTS 24KTS
DSHP 38KTS 32KTS 28KTS 24KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 13.3N LONCUR = 108.4W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR = 10KT
LATM12 = 12.9N LONM12 = 106.5W DIRM12 = 286DEG SPDM12 = 11KT
LATM24 = 12.0N LONM24 = 104.0W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 25NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1007MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
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