senorpepr wrote:Still not even officially a tropical depression from JMA...
Oh my Mike.
Well I will leave the title as it is for now.Tropical Depression 23W at WPAC
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cycloneye
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Oh my Mike.
Well I will leave the title as it is for now.
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HURAKAN
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 46086
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- Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
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- Contact:
WTPN31 PGTW 081500 COR
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 23W WARNING NR 006A CORRECTED
DOWNGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 23W
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
081200Z --- NEAR 13.4N 133.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.4N 133.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 13.8N 130.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 14.5N 128.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 15.4N 125.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 16.5N 123.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 18.5N 120.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
---
REMARKS:
081500Z POSITION NEAR 13.5N 132.5E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 23W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 710 NM EAST
OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 081200Z IS 09
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 082100Z, 090300Z, 090900Z AND 091500Z.
JUSTIFICATION FOR CORRECTION: CORRECTED SPEED OF MOVEMENT IN
REMARKS.//
Environment does not seem to be favorable for significant intensification, but a gradual and slow strengthening is in the forecast.
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cycloneye
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- Posts: 146242
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- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 23W WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
090000Z --- NEAR 13.1N 132.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.1N 132.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 13.6N 129.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 14.2N 127.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 14.9N 124.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 15.7N 123.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 17.1N 120.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
090300Z POSITION NEAR 13.2N 131.8E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 23W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 670 NM EAST
OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 090000Z IS 12
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 090900Z, 091500Z, 092100Z AND 100300Z.//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 23W WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
090000Z --- NEAR 13.1N 132.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.1N 132.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 13.6N 129.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 14.2N 127.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 14.9N 124.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 15.7N 123.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 17.1N 120.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
090300Z POSITION NEAR 13.2N 131.8E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 23W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 670 NM EAST
OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 090000Z IS 12
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 090900Z, 091500Z, 092100Z AND 100300Z.//
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HURAKAN
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 46086
- Age: 38
- Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
- Location: Key West, FL
- Contact:
WTPN31 PGTW 090900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 23W WARNING NR 009
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 23W
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
090600Z --- NEAR 13.5N 130.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.5N 130.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 14.1N 127.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 14.8N 125.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 15.6N 123.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 16.6N 120.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 18.4N 117.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 19.9N 115.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 21.5N 114.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
---
REMARKS:
090900Z POSITION NEAR 13.7N 129.4E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 23W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 530 NM EAST
OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 16
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 090600Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 091500Z, 092100Z,
100300Z AND 100900Z.//
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 146242
- Age: 69
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 23W WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
091200Z --- NEAR 14.2N 127.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 20 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.2N 127.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 15.2N 124.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 16.2N 121.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 17.2N 119.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 18.2N 118.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 19.6N 116.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 21.2N 115.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 22.8N 114.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
---
REMARKS:
091500Z POSITION NEAR 14.5N 127.1E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 23W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 405 NM EAST
OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 20
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 091200Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 092100Z, 100300Z, 100900Z
AND 101500Z.//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 23W WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
091200Z --- NEAR 14.2N 127.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 20 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.2N 127.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 15.2N 124.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 16.2N 121.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 17.2N 119.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 18.2N 118.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 19.6N 116.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 21.2N 115.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 22.8N 114.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
---
REMARKS:
091500Z POSITION NEAR 14.5N 127.1E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 23W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 405 NM EAST
OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 20
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 091200Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 092100Z, 100300Z, 100900Z
AND 101500Z.//
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cycloneye
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- Posts: 146242
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- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
P.K. wrote:JMA upgrades:
WTPQ20 RJTD 091200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 091200UTC 12.8N 127.8E POOR
MOVE W 15KT
PRES 1008HPA
MXWD 030KT
FORECAST
24HF 101200UTC 13.8N 122.5E 150NM 70%
MOVE W 13KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 040KT =
NNNN
After a few days finnally.
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cycloneye
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- Posts: 146242
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- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
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MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 23W WARNING NR 011
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
091800Z --- NEAR 14.1N 126.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.1N 126.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 14.6N 123.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 15.3N 121.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 16.2N 119.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 17.4N 118.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 19.7N 116.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 21.6N 115.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 23.2N 114.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
092100Z POSITION NEAR 14.2N 125.8E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 23W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 315 NM EAST
OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 14
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 091800Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 100300Z, 100900Z,
101500Z AND 102100Z.//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 23W WARNING NR 011
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
091800Z --- NEAR 14.1N 126.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.1N 126.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 14.6N 123.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 15.3N 121.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 16.2N 119.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 17.4N 118.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 19.7N 116.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 21.6N 115.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 23.2N 114.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
092100Z POSITION NEAR 14.2N 125.8E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 23W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 315 NM EAST
OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 14
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 091800Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 100300Z, 100900Z,
101500Z AND 102100Z.//
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P.K.
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 5149
- Joined: Thu Sep 23, 2004 5:57 pm
- Location: Watford, England
- Contact:
18:00GMT model guidance:
FXPQ20 RJTD 091800
RSMC GUIDANCE FOR FORECAST
NAME TD
PSTN 091800UTC 14.6N 126.1E
PRES 1006HPA
MXWD 30KT
FORECAST BY TYPHOON MODEL
TIME PSTN PRES MXWD
(CHANGE FROM T=0)
T=06 13.6N 124.9E +001HPA +001KT
T=12 13.8N 123.4E -001HPA +003KT
T=18 14.0N 122.7E +001HPA +003KT
T=24 14.3N 120.9E +001HPA +002KT
T=30 16.1N 118.4E +002HPA +003KT
T=36 16.7N 119.3E +001HPA +001KT
T=42 ///// ////// /////// //////
T=48 ///// ////// /////// //////
T=54 ///// ////// /////// //////
T=60 ///// ////// /////// //////
T=66 ///// ////// /////// //////
T=72 ///// ////// /////// //////
T=78 ///// ////// /////// //////
T=84 ///// ////// /////// //////
T=90 ///// ////// /////// //////=
FXPQ20 RJTD 091800
RSMC GUIDANCE FOR FORECAST
NAME TD
PSTN 091800UTC 14.6N 126.1E
PRES 1006HPA
MXWD 30KT
FORECAST BY TYPHOON MODEL
TIME PSTN PRES MXWD
(CHANGE FROM T=0)
T=06 13.6N 124.9E +001HPA +001KT
T=12 13.8N 123.4E -001HPA +003KT
T=18 14.0N 122.7E +001HPA +003KT
T=24 14.3N 120.9E +001HPA +002KT
T=30 16.1N 118.4E +002HPA +003KT
T=36 16.7N 119.3E +001HPA +001KT
T=42 ///// ////// /////// //////
T=48 ///// ////// /////// //////
T=54 ///// ////// /////// //////
T=60 ///// ////// /////// //////
T=66 ///// ////// /////// //////
T=72 ///// ////// /////// //////
T=78 ///// ////// /////// //////
T=84 ///// ////// /////// //////
T=90 ///// ////// /////// //////=
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WindRunner
- Category 5
- Posts: 5806
- Age: 34
- Joined: Fri Jul 29, 2005 8:07 pm
- Location: Warrenton, VA, but Albany, NY for school
- Contact:
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senorpepr
- Military Met/Moderator
- Posts: 12542
- Age: 43
- Joined: Fri Aug 22, 2003 9:22 pm
- Location: Mackenbach, Germany
- Contact:
The S2K Tropical Page has been updated to reflect JMA and PAGASA advisories. http://tropicalupdates.nhcwx.com
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Tampa Bay Hurricane
- Category 5
- Posts: 5597
- Age: 37
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joe_koehle
- Tropical Depression
- Posts: 61
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 146242
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- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 23W (TEMBIN) WARNING NR 012
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
100000Z --- NEAR 14.4N 125.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.4N 125.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 15.0N 122.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 15.8N 120.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 16.9N 119.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 17.8N 117.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 19.2N 116.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 20.6N 115.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 22.0N 115.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
100300Z POSITION NEAR 14.6N 124.4E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 23W (TEMBIN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 230 NM
EAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE STORM CIRCULATION IS RATHER
SMALL, AND THE WIND FIELD IS GREATEST ON THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE
UNDER THE DEEPEST CONVECTION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
100000Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 100900Z, 101500Z, 102100Z
AND 110300Z.//
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P.K.
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 5149
- Joined: Thu Sep 23, 2004 5:57 pm
- Location: Watford, England
- Contact:
35kts.
WTPQ20 RJTD 100600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 0522 TEMBIN (0522)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 100600UTC 15.8N 122.4E FAIR
MOVE WNW 20KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
30KT 180NM NORTH 120NM SOUTH
FORECAST
24HF 110600UTC 17.8N 116.8E 80NM 70%
MOVE WNW 14KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
48HF 120600UTC 18.4N 114.5E 150NM 70%
MOVE W SLOWLY
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
72HF 130600UTC 19.2N 113.3E 220NM 70%
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT =
Midnight model guidance:
FXPQ20 RJTD 100000
RSMC GUIDANCE FOR FORECAST
NAME TS 0522 TEMBIN (0522)
PSTN 100000UTC 14.9N 124.5E
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 35KT
FORECAST BY TYPHOON MODEL
TIME PSTN PRES MXWD
(CHANGE FROM T=0)
T=06 15.0N 122.8E -011HPA +006KT
T=12 15.6N 121.3E -013HPA +012KT
T=18 16.0N 119.6E -012HPA +010KT
T=24 16.1N 118.5E -012HPA +014KT
T=30 16.3N 117.6E -014HPA +016KT
T=36 16.5N 116.9E -014HPA +015KT
T=42 16.6N 116.2E -015HPA +017KT
T=48 16.9N 115.4E -018HPA +019KT
T=54 17.0N 114.9E -022HPA +024KT
T=60 17.3N 114.5E -020HPA +021KT
T=66 17.7N 114.3E -022HPA +022KT
T=72 18.1N 114.2E -025HPA +025KT
T=78 18.5N 114.3E -024HPA +021KT
T=84 18.9N 114.6E -024HPA +025KT
T=90 ///// ////// /////// //////=
WTPQ20 RJTD 100600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 0522 TEMBIN (0522)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 100600UTC 15.8N 122.4E FAIR
MOVE WNW 20KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
30KT 180NM NORTH 120NM SOUTH
FORECAST
24HF 110600UTC 17.8N 116.8E 80NM 70%
MOVE WNW 14KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
48HF 120600UTC 18.4N 114.5E 150NM 70%
MOVE W SLOWLY
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
72HF 130600UTC 19.2N 113.3E 220NM 70%
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT =
Midnight model guidance:
FXPQ20 RJTD 100000
RSMC GUIDANCE FOR FORECAST
NAME TS 0522 TEMBIN (0522)
PSTN 100000UTC 14.9N 124.5E
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 35KT
FORECAST BY TYPHOON MODEL
TIME PSTN PRES MXWD
(CHANGE FROM T=0)
T=06 15.0N 122.8E -011HPA +006KT
T=12 15.6N 121.3E -013HPA +012KT
T=18 16.0N 119.6E -012HPA +010KT
T=24 16.1N 118.5E -012HPA +014KT
T=30 16.3N 117.6E -014HPA +016KT
T=36 16.5N 116.9E -014HPA +015KT
T=42 16.6N 116.2E -015HPA +017KT
T=48 16.9N 115.4E -018HPA +019KT
T=54 17.0N 114.9E -022HPA +024KT
T=60 17.3N 114.5E -020HPA +021KT
T=66 17.7N 114.3E -022HPA +022KT
T=72 18.1N 114.2E -025HPA +025KT
T=78 18.5N 114.3E -024HPA +021KT
T=84 18.9N 114.6E -024HPA +025KT
T=90 ///// ////// /////// //////=
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HURAKAN
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 46086
- Age: 38
- Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
- Location: Key West, FL
- Contact:
WTPN31 PGTW 100900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 23W (TEMBIN) WARNING NR 013
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
100600Z --- NEAR 15.2N 122.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 23 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.2N 122.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 16.2N 120.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 17.1N 118.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 18.0N 116.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 18.8N 115.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 20.2N 114.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 21.0N 113.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 21.5N 111.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
100900Z POSITION NEAR 15.5N 122.0E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 23W (TEMBIN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 100 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
23 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
100600Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 101500Z, 102100Z, 110300Z AND
110900Z.//
NNNN
TEMBIN is basically flying, moving at speeds around 23 knots - 26 mph.
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HURAKAN
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WTPN31 PGTW 101500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 23W (TEMBIN) WARNING NR 014
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
101200Z --- NEAR 15.7N 121.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 15.7N 121.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 16.9N 119.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 17.7N 117.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 18.3N 116.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 18.9N 115.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 19.8N 114.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 20.1N 113.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 20.2N 112.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
101500Z POSITION NEAR 16.0N 120.8E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 23W (TEMBIN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 75 NM NORTH-
NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY
REVEALS CYCLING DEEP CONVECTION AROUND THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 101200Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 102100Z, 110300Z, 110900Z AND 111500Z.//
TEMBIN HAS MADE LANDFALL IN THE LUZON AREA.
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 23W (TEMBIN) WARNING NR 014
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
101200Z --- NEAR 15.7N 121.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 15.7N 121.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 16.9N 119.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 17.7N 117.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 18.3N 116.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 18.9N 115.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 19.8N 114.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 20.1N 113.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 20.2N 112.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
101500Z POSITION NEAR 16.0N 120.8E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 23W (TEMBIN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 75 NM NORTH-
NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY
REVEALS CYCLING DEEP CONVECTION AROUND THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 101200Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 102100Z, 110300Z, 110900Z AND 111500Z.//
TEMBIN HAS MADE LANDFALL IN THE LUZON AREA.
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