TWO Caribbean thread

#21 Postby **Windtalker1** » Fri Nov 11, 2005 7:35 am

Models has this possible storm moving NE to soon. By the time soon to be "Gamma" gets going, the front will be a memory that is crossing FL now. I think if this were to develop, it has a chance to head for the Isle of Youth before moving NE through the FL straits.....just my opinion.

#22 Postby **wxman57** » Fri Nov 11, 2005 8:04 am

Well, I think the stars are all in alignment for development of Gama in 3-4 days. Most of my hurricane team will be gone, taking well-needed rests after this past season, leaving a skeleton crew to cover the tropics. Good news for the US is that this will be a Caribbean storm. It'll either move inland into Central America or, more likely, track slowly N-NE toward the DR or PR next weekend. If it does develop, then I see nothing to prevent it from becoming a strong hurricane.

Just great...

#23 Postby **P.K.** » Fri Nov 11, 2005 11:35 am

ABNT20 KNHC 111628
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EST FRI NOV 11 2005

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED OVER PANAMA... COSTA
RICA... AND THE ADJACENT SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS PRODUCING A
LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THIS AREA.
CONDITIONS MAY GRADUALLY BECOME MORE FAVORABLE OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS FOR SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR AS THE SYSTEM DRIFTS
NORTHWARD OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. IN ADDITION... HEAVY
RAINFALL CAUSING LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF
PANAMA... COSTA RICA... NICARAGUA... AND NORTHERN COLOMBIA.

ELSEWHERE... TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
SATURDAY.

FORECASTER STEWART

Website · #24 Postby **Brent** » Fri Nov 11, 2005 11:45 am

#25 Postby **HURAKAN** » Fri Nov 11, 2005 11:46 am

Things are becoming more interesting by the minute.

Damar91 · #26 Postby **Damar91** » Fri Nov 11, 2005 1:03 pm

All right, who's the one that said the season was over! :grr:

#27 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Fri Nov 11, 2005 1:05 pm

my cousin said it was over... i will be sure to dig his grave promptly so as this never happens again

Damar91 · #28 Postby **Damar91** » Fri Nov 11, 2005 1:09 pm

Thanks southflorida! :roflmao:

#29 Postby **sponger** » Fri Nov 11, 2005 1:25 pm

No suprise here! Nov avg's one storm every two years. Betting against this season is a suckers bet! Feels like being up 60 points and still running up the score. 1933 went down in flames!

#30 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Fri Nov 11, 2005 1:54 pm

Damar91 wrote:Thanks southflorida!

welcome

grave dug and just waiting for him to come home for work. We will prepare a wonderful meal and invite him to the back yard for a round of horse shoes.... On his side of the pit he will find a surprise... hahahahaha

just kidding.... :lol:

Coredesat · #31 Postby **Coredesat** » Fri Nov 11, 2005 4:01 pm

Shear over the area is 20-30 kt and (slowly) increasing. If it moves northward, it's going to hit some 40-50 kt and increasing shear.

#32 Postby **decgirl66** » Fri Nov 11, 2005 5:13 pm

southfloridawx2005 wrote:
Damar91 wrote:Thanks southflorida!

welcome

grave dug and just waiting for him to come home for work. We will prepare a wonderful meal and invite him to the back yard for a round of horse shoes.... On his side of the pit he will find a surprise... hahahahaha

just kidding....

too funny! :lol:

#33 Postby **cycloneye** » Fri Nov 11, 2005 5:35 pm

278
ABNT20 KNHC 112232
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EST FRI NOV 11 2005

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED OVER PANAMA... COSTA
RICA... NORTHERN COLOMBIA... AND THE ADJACENT SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA IS PRODUCING A LARGE BUT DISORGANIZED AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THESE AREAS. CONDITIONS COULD GRADUALLY BECOME
MORE FAVORABLE DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS FOR SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT
AS THE SYSTEM MOVES VERY LITTLE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE
NEXT FEW DAYS ACROSS MUCH OF PANAMA... COSTA RICA... NICARAGUA...
AND NORTHERN COLOMBIA.

ELSEWHERE... TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
SATURDAY.

FORECASTER KNABB

5:30 PM TWO

HURAKAN I edited part of the title of the thread to eliminate the hours of the TWO,s to not change every 6 hours.

.And included Caribbean Thread.

#34 Postby **gerrit** » Fri Nov 11, 2005 6:46 pm

wxman57 wrote: Good news for the US is that this will be a Caribbean storm. It'll either move inland into Central America or, more likely, track slowly N-NE toward the DR or PR next weekend. If it does develop, then I see nothing to prevent it from becoming a strong hurricane.

Just great...

I hope you're wrong... :roll:

#35 Postby **msbee** » Fri Nov 11, 2005 6:53 pm

yea, good news for some, but not for others maybe

#36 Postby **HURAKAN** » Fri Nov 11, 2005 7:21 pm

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/CGI/PUBLIC/w ... 2005111112

NOGAPS shows a track very similar or identical to the one Hurricane Beta had.

#37 Postby **cycloneye** » Fri Nov 11, 2005 10:32 pm

996
ABNT20 KNHC 120331
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 PM EST FRI NOV 11 2005

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER PANAMA... NORTHERN
COLOMBIA... AND THE ADJACENT SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS
PRODUCING A LARGE BUT DISORGANIZED AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THESE AREAS. CONDITIONS COULD GRADUALLY BECOME
MORE FAVORABLE DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS FOR SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT
AS THE SYSTEM MOVES VERY LITTLE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE
NEXT FEW DAYS ACROSS PORTIONS OF PANAMA... COSTA RICA...
NICARAGUA... AND NORTHERN COLOMBIA.

ELSEWHERE... TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
SUNDAY.

FORECASTER KNABB

10:30 PM TWO

#38 Postby **P.K.** » Sat Nov 12, 2005 4:13 am

9:30am GMT TWO:

ABNT20 KNHC 120909
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 AM EST SAT NOV 12 2005

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER PANAMA... NORTHERN
COLOMBIA... AND THE ADJACENT SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS
PRODUCING A DISORGANIZED AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THESE AREAS. CONDITIONS COULD GRADUALLY BECOME
MORE FAVORABLE DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS FOR SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES VERY LITTLE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE
NEXT FEW DAYS ACROSS PORTIONS OF PANAMA... COSTA RICA...
NICARAGUA... AND NORTHERN COLOMBIA.

ELSEWHERE... TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
SUNDAY.

FORECASTER KNABB

#39 Postby **wxman57** » Sat Nov 12, 2005 7:55 am

Convection has definitely diminished in the past 24 hours, and models are less bullish on development. What models even develop a system there now move it westward into Central America. Hopefully, we'll get no Gamma next week, as if it does develop I'll have to work through Thanksgiving week and won't be able to go back to MS to lead the re-painting of my mother's house.

#40 Postby **HURAKAN** » Sat Nov 12, 2005 11:09 am

Tropical Weather Outlook

Statement as of 11:30 am EST on November 12, 2005

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico...

A broad area of low pressure centered over Panama is producing
extensive cloudiness and scattered showers and thunderstorms from
northwestern Colombia westward over most of the southwestern
Caribbean Sea... Panama... Costa Rica... and eastern Nicaragua.
Shower activity has increased and become slightly better organized
today... and conditions could gradually become more favorable for
some additional development to occur as the system drifts northward
over the next few days. Locally heavy rainfall and flooding will be
possible across portions of Panama... Costa Rica... Nicaragua...
and northern Colombia. In addition... winds may gust to tropical
storm force in brief heavy squalls over the southwestern Caribbean
Sea.

Elsewhere... tropical storm formation is not expected through
Sunday.

Forecaster Stewart

TWO Caribbean thread

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