TWO Caribbean thread

[cycloneye]

ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: POSSIBLE LOW LEVEL INVEST
NEAR 11.5N 81.5W AT 14/2000Z.

Whoaaa interesting.

[Budro999]

Convection has definitely diminished in the past 24 hours, and models are less bullish on development. What models even develop a system there now move it westward into Central America. Hopefully, we'll get no Gamma next week, as if it does develop I'll have to work through Thanksgiving week and won't be able to go back to MS to lead the re-painting of my mother's house.

I disagree that models are less bullish on development. The NOGAPS, UKMET, Canadian, and the GFS all show development to a different extent. One thing that is unusual, however, is that even though all those models do show a system in the western Caribbean in 5-6 days, the path to development does appear to be somewhat different when the models are compared.

[mike815]

A broad area of low pressure centered over Panama is producing
extensive cloudiness and scattered showers and thunderstorms from
northwestern Colombia westward over most of the southwestern
Caribbean Sea... Panama... Costa Rica... and eastern Nicaragua.
Shower activity has increased and become slightly better organized
today... and conditions could gradually become more favorable for
some additional development to occur as the system drifts northward
over the next few days. Locally heavy rainfall and flooding will be
possible across portions of Panama... Costa Rica... Nicaragua...
and northern Colombia. In addition... winds may gust to tropical
storm force in brief heavy squalls over the southwestern Caribbean
Sea.

[SouthFloridawx]