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- Tampa Bay Hurricane
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- WindRunner
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SHIPS still not doing much until 48hrs as of 00Z.
316
WHXX01 KWBC 140013
CHGHUR
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.
.....THE FOLLOWING IS A TEST MESSAGE.....
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST (AL942005) ON 20051114 0000 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
051114 0000 051114 1200 051115 0000 051115 1200
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 13.2N 62.3W 13.6N 63.4W 14.2N 64.3W 14.5N 65.0W
BAMM 13.2N 62.3W 13.7N 63.8W 14.1N 64.9W 14.3N 66.0W
A98E 13.2N 62.3W 13.7N 64.1W 13.9N 65.8W 14.0N 67.2W
LBAR 13.2N 62.3W 14.1N 63.7W 15.4N 64.6W 16.5N 65.1W
SHIP 25KTS 27KTS 31KTS 35KTS
DSHP 25KTS 27KTS 31KTS 35KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
051116 0000 051117 0000 051118 0000 051119 0000
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 14.7N 65.7W 14.6N 67.1W 13.4N 68.9W 12.2N 71.9W
BAMM 14.4N 67.0W 13.9N 69.1W 12.2N 71.1W 10.5N 73.2W
A98E 14.0N 68.5W 13.8N 71.1W 13.0N 74.3W 12.2N 77.7W
LBAR 17.0N 65.4W 18.1N 63.8W 18.1N 59.3W 23.3N 52.4W
SHIP 41KTS 51KTS 59KTS 59KTS
DSHP 41KTS 51KTS 59KTS 34KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 13.2N LONCUR = 62.3W DIRCUR = 290DEG SPDCUR = 10KT
LATM12 = 12.4N LONM12 = 60.4W DIRM12 = 289DEG SPDM12 = 11KT
LATM24 = 11.9N LONM24 = 58.3W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 45NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1007MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 175NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
.....THE ABOVE HAS BEEN A TEST MESSAGE.....
316
WHXX01 KWBC 140013
CHGHUR
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.
.....THE FOLLOWING IS A TEST MESSAGE.....
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST (AL942005) ON 20051114 0000 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
051114 0000 051114 1200 051115 0000 051115 1200
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 13.2N 62.3W 13.6N 63.4W 14.2N 64.3W 14.5N 65.0W
BAMM 13.2N 62.3W 13.7N 63.8W 14.1N 64.9W 14.3N 66.0W
A98E 13.2N 62.3W 13.7N 64.1W 13.9N 65.8W 14.0N 67.2W
LBAR 13.2N 62.3W 14.1N 63.7W 15.4N 64.6W 16.5N 65.1W
SHIP 25KTS 27KTS 31KTS 35KTS
DSHP 25KTS 27KTS 31KTS 35KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
051116 0000 051117 0000 051118 0000 051119 0000
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 14.7N 65.7W 14.6N 67.1W 13.4N 68.9W 12.2N 71.9W
BAMM 14.4N 67.0W 13.9N 69.1W 12.2N 71.1W 10.5N 73.2W
A98E 14.0N 68.5W 13.8N 71.1W 13.0N 74.3W 12.2N 77.7W
LBAR 17.0N 65.4W 18.1N 63.8W 18.1N 59.3W 23.3N 52.4W
SHIP 41KTS 51KTS 59KTS 59KTS
DSHP 41KTS 51KTS 59KTS 34KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 13.2N LONCUR = 62.3W DIRCUR = 290DEG SPDCUR = 10KT
LATM12 = 12.4N LONM12 = 60.4W DIRM12 = 289DEG SPDM12 = 11KT
LATM24 = 11.9N LONM24 = 58.3W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 45NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1007MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 175NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
.....THE ABOVE HAS BEEN A TEST MESSAGE.....
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cycloneye wrote:
PRZ012-141315-
CULEBRA-
352 PM AST SUN NOV 13 2005
...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM AST MONDAY...
.TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. BREEZY. LOWS AROUND 78. NORTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 MPH.
CHANCE OF RAIN 70 PERCENT.
.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. BREEZY. HIGHS 86 LOWER ELEVATIONS RANGING TO
81 HIGHER ELEVATIONS. NORTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN
70 PERCENT.
.MONDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. BREEZY. LOWS AROUND 78. NORTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 MPH.
CHANCE OF RAIN 60 PERCENT.
.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. BREEZY. HIGHS 86 LOWER ELEVATIONS RANGING TO
81 HIGHER ELEVATIONS. EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN
60 PERCENT.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS AROUND 77. EAST WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH. CHANCE OF
RAIN 50 PERCENT.
.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MORNING...THEN PARTLY CLOUDY WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS 86 LOWER ELEVATIONS RANGING TO
81 HIGHER ELEVATIONS. CHANCE OF RAIN 50 PERCENT.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VARIABLY CLOUDY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. BREEZY. LOWS AROUND 78. CHANCE OF RAIN
50 PERCENT.
.THURSDAY...VARIABLY CLOUDY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MORNING...THEN SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE
AFTERNOON. BREEZY. HIGHS 87 LOWER ELEVATIONS RANGING TO 82 HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. CHANCE OF RAIN 50 PERCENT.
.THURSDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE EVENING...
THEN ISOLATED SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT. BREEZY. LOWS AROUND 78. CHANCE
OF RAIN 50 PERCENT.
.FRIDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS. HIGHS 87 LOWER
ELEVATIONS RANGING TO 82 HIGHER ELEVATIONS. CHANCE OF RAIN
40 PERCENT.
.FRIDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS. LOWS AROUND
78. CHANCE OF RAIN 40 PERCENT.
.SATURDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS 87 LOWER ELEVATIONS RANGING TO 82 HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. CHANCE OF RAIN 40 PERCENT.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...VARIABLY CLOUDY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS AROUND 78. CHANCE OF RAIN 50 PERCENT.
.SUNDAY...VARIABLY CLOUDY IN THE MORNING THEN BECOMING PARTLY
CLOUDY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS 87 LOWER
ELEVATIONS RANGING TO 82 HIGHER ELEVATIONS. CHANCE OF RAIN
50 PERCENT.
caribepr I posted what you can expect for Culebra .
Thanks Luis. We didn't go tonight, but if things are looking like the current conditions, we'll take off in the morning. Weirdly, two other boats are here from St. Thomas and we'll all be heading to Vieques at more or less the same time. Well equipped, well prepared and home is ready for whatever comes, so...Right now we have NO wind at all. But that will change - it's been really gusty all day with a few hard rains...nothing worrisome. Figuring winds 15-30 with gusts, and bumpy seas (worst prognosis is 6-8, no big deal - unless things change and then it's a no go).
Thanks again! Hoping for the best, planned and prepped for the worst.
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- WindRunner
- Category 5
- Posts: 5806
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- Joined: Fri Jul 29, 2005 8:07 pm
- Location: Warrenton, VA, but Albany, NY for school
- Contact:
And the link to the 18Z GFDLfor those that want it, definately looking Yucatan/Belieze-ish at this point, but a trough could still curve it.
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- cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 146239
- Age: 69
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST (AL942005) ON 20051114 0000 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
051114 0000 051114 1200 051115 0000 051115 1200
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 13.2N 62.3W 13.6N 63.4W 14.2N 64.3W 14.5N 65.0W
BAMM 13.2N 62.3W 13.7N 63.8W 14.1N 64.9W 14.3N 66.0W
A98E 13.2N 62.3W 13.7N 64.1W 13.9N 65.8W 14.0N 67.2W
LBAR 13.2N 62.3W 14.1N 63.7W 15.4N 64.6W 16.5N 65.1W
SHIP 25KTS 27KTS 31KTS 35KTS
DSHP 25KTS 27KTS 31KTS 35KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
051116 0000 051117 0000 051118 0000 051119 0000
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 14.7N 65.7W 14.6N 67.1W 13.4N 68.9W 12.2N 71.9W
BAMM 14.4N 67.0W 13.9N 69.1W 12.2N 71.1W 10.5N 73.2W
A98E 14.0N 68.5W 13.8N 71.1W 13.0N 74.3W 12.2N 77.7W
LBAR 17.0N 65.4W 18.1N 63.8W 18.1N 59.3W 23.3N 52.4W
SHIP 41KTS 51KTS 59KTS 59KTS
DSHP 41KTS 51KTS 59KTS 34KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 13.2N LONCUR = 62.3W DIRCUR = 290DEG SPDCUR = 10KT
LATM12 = 12.4N LONM12 = 60.4W DIRM12 = 289DEG SPDM12 = 11KT
LATM24 = 11.9N LONM24 = 58.3W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 45NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1007MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 175NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
00:00z Models
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
051114 0000 051114 1200 051115 0000 051115 1200
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 13.2N 62.3W 13.6N 63.4W 14.2N 64.3W 14.5N 65.0W
BAMM 13.2N 62.3W 13.7N 63.8W 14.1N 64.9W 14.3N 66.0W
A98E 13.2N 62.3W 13.7N 64.1W 13.9N 65.8W 14.0N 67.2W
LBAR 13.2N 62.3W 14.1N 63.7W 15.4N 64.6W 16.5N 65.1W
SHIP 25KTS 27KTS 31KTS 35KTS
DSHP 25KTS 27KTS 31KTS 35KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
051116 0000 051117 0000 051118 0000 051119 0000
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 14.7N 65.7W 14.6N 67.1W 13.4N 68.9W 12.2N 71.9W
BAMM 14.4N 67.0W 13.9N 69.1W 12.2N 71.1W 10.5N 73.2W
A98E 14.0N 68.5W 13.8N 71.1W 13.0N 74.3W 12.2N 77.7W
LBAR 17.0N 65.4W 18.1N 63.8W 18.1N 59.3W 23.3N 52.4W
SHIP 41KTS 51KTS 59KTS 59KTS
DSHP 41KTS 51KTS 59KTS 34KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 13.2N LONCUR = 62.3W DIRCUR = 290DEG SPDCUR = 10KT
LATM12 = 12.4N LONM12 = 60.4W DIRM12 = 289DEG SPDM12 = 11KT
LATM24 = 11.9N LONM24 = 58.3W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 45NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1007MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 175NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
00:00z Models
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- cycloneye
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caribepr I say to you good luck and please be safe.
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- Tampa Bay Hurricane
- Category 5
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- WindRunner
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cycloneye wrote:caribepr I say to you good luck and please be safe.
I promise I'll be as safe as I know how to be, that's why we didn't go tonight...wanted to see what tonight and the morning bring. I mean, if it's going to come HERE...I want to be home! The sailing isn't that big a deal, not that far and a very good boat, but if the caa caa hits the fan in a few days or sooner, I don't want to be stuck anywhere but here!
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- cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 146239
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caribepr wrote:cycloneye wrote:caribepr I say to you good luck and please be safe.
I promise I'll be as safe as I know how to be, that's why we didn't go tonight...wanted to see what tonight and the morning bring. I mean, if it's going to come HERE...I want to be home! The sailing isn't that big a deal, not that far and a very good boat, but if the caa caa hits the fan in a few days or sooner, I don't want to be stuck anywhere but here!
Ok very good to know that all will be fine with the precautions that you will have.
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The rain has shown no signs of abating and if it continues like this much longer, flooding will likely become a major problem in many areas of the island. All schools in Barbados have been ordered not to open tomorrow.
Also, since my last post, winds gusts have become somewhat stronger but still nothing to become overly concerned about.
Also, since my last post, winds gusts have become somewhat stronger but still nothing to become overly concerned about.
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I thought this forum would jumping by now because of this, but I see no one even knows yet...well here it is...
SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 800 PM EST SUN NOV 13 2005 SATELLITE IMAGERY... RADAR DATA... AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THE LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ABOUT 85 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF ST. LUCIA HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED THIS EVENING. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED NEAR AND JUST TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER... AND ST. LUCIA REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND OF 33 MPH DURING THE PAST HOUR. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE ALSO GRADUALLY BECOMING A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE. IF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP CLOSER TO THE CIRCULATION CENTER ...THEN A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM LATER TONIGHT OR MONDAY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH. INTERESTS IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND ADJACENT LAND AREAS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. FORECASTER STEWART
SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 800 PM EST SUN NOV 13 2005 SATELLITE IMAGERY... RADAR DATA... AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THE LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ABOUT 85 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF ST. LUCIA HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED THIS EVENING. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED NEAR AND JUST TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER... AND ST. LUCIA REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND OF 33 MPH DURING THE PAST HOUR. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE ALSO GRADUALLY BECOMING A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE. IF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP CLOSER TO THE CIRCULATION CENTER ...THEN A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM LATER TONIGHT OR MONDAY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH. INTERESTS IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND ADJACENT LAND AREAS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. FORECASTER STEWART
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- Hurricanehink
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