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mike815
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#121 Postby mike815 » Sun Nov 13, 2005 8:37 pm

I think so unfortunitly, not a fish. Way to early though to tell.
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#122 Postby jkt21787 » Sun Nov 13, 2005 8:38 pm

floridahurricaneguy wrote:USA risk at all? J/w?

Matt

I would say extremely unlikely. The gulf and immediate east coast are very hostile now, and with additional troughs expected over the next 7-10 days in the Eastern United States, this would increase the threat of there NOT being a US threat.

The only possible scenario, and this is just a slight chance at this point, is moving up near the east coast and linking up with one of the aforementioned troughs. Not an extremely likely scenario at this point.
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#123 Postby Brent » Sun Nov 13, 2005 8:38 pm

I would be VERY surprised if this reaches the U.S. mainland. A major cold front is expected to reach all the way to the coast by mid-week, with one about every 3 days after that.
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#124 Postby JamesFromMaine2 » Sun Nov 13, 2005 8:41 pm

Latest IR image! Very deep convection has formed!

Image
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#125 Postby floridahurricaneguy » Sun Nov 13, 2005 8:41 pm

i thought it was the late season troughs that possbly cause storms to affect gulf and USA
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#126 Postby jkt21787 » Sun Nov 13, 2005 8:42 pm

floridahurricaneguy wrote:i thought it was the late season troughs that possbly cause storms to affect gulf and USA

Yeah, but this late in the season the troughs are pushed well enough south and east to prevent any US threat whatsoever...
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#127 Postby brunota2003 » Sun Nov 13, 2005 8:44 pm

OK, Who authorized the STDS to be issued without my prior knowledge??? Also, while I'm at it, who gave 94L permission to form into, which he isnt yet since he was just authorized to do so, TD 27??? I'm going to de-mote both of them scume bags... :lol: :lol: Ok, my rant is over...
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#128 Postby Brent » Sun Nov 13, 2005 8:48 pm

floridahurricaneguy wrote:i thought it was the late season troughs that possbly cause storms to affect gulf and USA


In September and most of October, the troughs only come far enough south to "pick up" the storm and turn it northward... it's already too far west to completely miss.

In late October/November, the fronts will clear the entire Gulf and Florida, and a hurricane cannot cross that.
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#129 Postby brunota2003 » Sun Nov 13, 2005 8:49 pm

Well, unfortunetly someone forgot to give her that memo: Image

And stranger things have happened this year, I'm going to watch this one closely, as NC happens to get hit by quite a few recurving storms...
Last edited by brunota2003 on Sun Nov 13, 2005 8:51 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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#130 Postby mike815 » Sun Nov 13, 2005 8:51 pm

Very tru! Many storms this year have shown us everything is not clear cut.
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#131 Postby mike815 » Sun Nov 13, 2005 8:51 pm

Very tru! Many storms this year have shown us everything is not clear cut.
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#132 Postby Brent » Sun Nov 13, 2005 8:51 pm

brunota2003 wrote:Well, unfortunetly someone forgot to give her that memo: Image


That looks like there was a ridge over the Western Atlantic and it recurved too late. Not quite the same deal here.
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#133 Postby WindRunner » Sun Nov 13, 2005 8:52 pm

brunota2003 wrote:Well, unfortunetly someone forgot to give her that memo:

And stranger things have happened this year, I'm going to watch this one closely, as NC happens to get hit by quite a few recurving storms...


Now shift that about 6S, and you have a nightmarish Tampa scenario . . . not saying that will happen here, just a note . . .
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#134 Postby jkt21787 » Sun Nov 13, 2005 8:54 pm

brunota2003 wrote:Well, unfortunetly someone forgot to give her that memo: Image

And stranger things have happened this year, I'm going to watch this one closely, as NC happens to get hit by quite a few recurving storms...

Well, the upper air pattern over Kate was MUCH different than the one setting up for this potential storm. If the models are right with the current projected pattern shaping up, climatology should easily win with this one...
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#135 Postby brunota2003 » Sun Nov 13, 2005 8:54 pm

WindRunner wrote:
brunota2003 wrote:Well, unfortunetly someone forgot to give her that memo:

And stranger things have happened this year, I'm going to watch this one closely, as NC happens to get hit by quite a few recurving storms...


Now shift that about 6S, and you have a nightmarish Tampa scenario . . . not saying that will happen here, just a note . . .
And note that would possibly give me hurricane coniditions if it did hit Tampa...
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#136 Postby mike815 » Sun Nov 13, 2005 8:55 pm

Im confused then. Looks like the models have this moving wnw for a while. Even some had it bending south of west. :?:
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#137 Postby brunota2003 » Sun Nov 13, 2005 8:56 pm

Why would climotology win this one??? This late in the season, you know if this thing forms, then this season will try its best to throw climotology out for this storm to...
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#138 Postby jkt21787 » Sun Nov 13, 2005 8:56 pm

mike815 wrote:Im confused then. Looks like the models have this moving wnw for a while. Even some had it bending south of west. :?:

Well this storm will be far away from any influence from the troughs over the Eastern US for the next several days, you have to look at the long term pattern once the storm (if it develops) will be in once further west...
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#139 Postby jkt21787 » Sun Nov 13, 2005 8:58 pm

brunota2003 wrote:Why would climotology win this one??? This late in the season, you know if this thing forms, then this season will try its best to throw climotology out for this storm to...

If the trough develops as forecasted, and this system is able to plow right through it (unharmed I might add), than that will be one of the most amazing things I've ever seen...
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#140 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Nov 13, 2005 8:58 pm

GAMMA IS ALMOST HERE!

BY THE WAY, IS ME OR GREEK STORMS LIKE THE CARIBBEAN! :lol:
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