TD 27,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[cycloneye]

WHXX04 KWBC 141726
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-SE 27L

INITIAL TIME 12Z NOV 14

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 13.8 63.6 295./ 6.0
6 14.7 64.2 327./10.3
12 15.0 64.9 298./ 7.5
18 15.7 65.7 309./ 9.8
24 16.1 67.1 288./14.6
30 16.5 68.3 289./12.3
36 16.7 69.8 275./14.5
42 16.5 71.3 263./13.9
48 16.4 72.3 264./ 9.8
54 16.6 73.5 281./12.0
60 16.5 74.8 264./11.9
66 16.3 75.9 260./10.9
72 16.5 77.0 282./11.4
78 16.7 78.2 279./10.8
84 16.9 79.4 278./11.9
90 16.7 80.5 261./10.9
96 16.7 81.4 267./ 8.4
102 16.6 82.2 265./ 7.7
108 16.5 82.7 262./ 4.6
114 16.5 83.1 270./ 4.5
120 16.7 83.3 310./ 2.4
126 17.1 83.5 337./ 3.9


12z GFDL

[dixiebreeze]

It looks exactly like a TS to me late this morning. I'll bet it will be named by this afternoon.

I've been studying these professionally for 25 years, dixie, and it looks like an open wave to me, perhaps bordering on becoming a TD if it can get any convection near the low pressure center.

Most, here, want it to develop, though, and they may be seeing things that aren't there. I absolutely do not want it to develop, so it's possible I could be biased the other way a bit. If it develops, then I may not be able to drive to Mississippi to help my mother rebuild her home next weekend. She got flooded in Katrina and I've been trying to help out in between storms and traveling for hurricane talks. I'm in Charleston, SC today, speaking about the 2005 hurricane season to a group of power companies.

I tried plotting surface obs across the NE Caribbean and got nothing within 250 miles of the low pressure center. So no hard data to confirm an LLC.

So the NHC is wrong. I'll side with the NHC on this one.

I'll stick to my "bet" on this one. Don't think I'll be wrong. I also see it heading toward the YP channel eventually -- IMHO and a strong hunch.

[HURAKAN]

If the NHC's track holds true, then what I'm seen is not very good for Nicaragua and Honduras. A few weeks ago they had Beta, since a week ago 93L has been bothering around dumping a lot of rain, and if future Gamma gets there, moving as slow as forecasted, then a catastrophe will happen with the poor people of Central America. Musdlides and trememdous flooding will be the main and most common problem. A lot of people could die before everything is set and done. Very interesting and problematic days ahead.

But Sandy thankfully when Beta occured no big tragic event occured in Nicaragua or Honduras as they prepared with time so I can expect the same preparations if this goes their way.

Luis, I agree with your response. I also hope they prepare for possible GAMMA as well as they did for BETA. But the ground by now should be extremely saturated. Therefore, the threat of flood and mudslides is much higher than when BETA passed. By the way, I have already seen in Primer Impacto (UNIVISION) and Al Rojo Vivo (TELEMUNDO) reports from HONDURAS of floods caused by 93L. I really hope they get prepare and those that need, evacuate.

[Sanibel]

Sanibel super computer:


While climatology would strongly lean towards a Yucatan Channel recurve, 2005 is trending like it is a month behind in climatology. This leaves the possibility of an Iris-like track into Central America.

Anyone saying this was called a TD too early simply isn't looking at that cold top convection.

This storm is shouting category 3 once the shear relaxes...

[DESTRUCTION5]

WHXX04 KWBC 141726
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-SE 27L

INITIAL TIME 12Z NOV 14

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 13.8 63.6 295./ 6.0
6 14.7 64.2 327./10.3
12 15.0 64.9 298./ 7.5
18 15.7 65.7 309./ 9.8
24 16.1 67.1 288./14.6
30 16.5 68.3 289./12.3
36 16.7 69.8 275./14.5
42 16.5 71.3 263./13.9
48 16.4 72.3 264./ 9.8
54 16.6 73.5 281./12.0
60 16.5 74.8 264./11.9
66 16.3 75.9 260./10.9
72 16.5 77.0 282./11.4
78 16.7 78.2 279./10.8
84 16.9 79.4 278./11.9
90 16.7 80.5 261./10.9
96 16.7 81.4 267./ 8.4
102 16.6 82.2 265./ 7.7
108 16.5 82.7 262./ 4.6
114 16.5 83.1 270./ 4.5
120 16.7 83.3 310./ 2.4
126 17.1 83.5 337./ 3.9


12z GFDL

Looks Like "It" gets grabbed twards the end of the forecast...

[dixiebreeze]

Say hello to 27L NoName, so only......

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

a matter of hours before this is TS Gamma, I believe.

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html

[cycloneye]

Say hello to 27L NoName, so only......

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

a matter of hours before this is TS Gamma, I believe.

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html

Excellent dixie for posting that at the right thread. I am going to deleite that one.

[DESTRUCTION5]

Sanibel super computer:


While climatology would strongly lean towards a Yucatan Channel recurve, 2005 is trending like it is a month behind in climatology. This leaves the possibility of an Iris-like track into Central America.

Anyone saying this was called a TD too early simply isn't looking at that cold top convection.

This storm is shouting category 3 once the shear relaxes...

No way it Makes it to Mexico...IMO it would be lucky to make it West of Jamacia...A NE Recurve is almost a given...But as RonJon said before it will be all in timing...

[cycloneye]

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 14.11.2005



TROPICAL DEPRESSION 27 ANALYSED POSITION : 14.0N 63.3W



ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL272005



VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

12UTC 14.11.2005 14.0N 63.3W WEAK

00UTC 15.11.2005 14.7N 64.9W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 15.11.2005 14.7N 66.7W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 16.11.2005 14.6N 68.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 16.11.2005 14.6N 69.3W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 17.11.2005 13.9N 72.8W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY

12UTC 17.11.2005 13.9N 74.4W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 18.11.2005 14.0N 76.0W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 18.11.2005 14.5N 78.5W STRONG INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY

00UTC 19.11.2005 15.0N 79.0W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 19.11.2005 16.2N 79.4W INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY

00UTC 20.11.2005 17.8N 79.0W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 20.11.2005 18.2N 78.6W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY



12z UKMET

[dixiebreeze]

Say hello to 27L NoName, so only......

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

a matter of hours before this is TS Gamma, I believe.

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html

Excellent dixie for posting that at the right thread. I am going to deleite that one.

OK, Luis, thanks, though I'm glad the old one had 20 viewers before it was deleted and this one gets too long.

[cycloneye]

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-SEVEN IS CENTERED NEAR 13.8N 63.6W...
OR 150 NM W OF ST. LUCIA...AT 14/1500 UTC MOVING WNW AT 6 KT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM PRESSURE IS 1006 MB. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/
ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 FOR MORE
DETAILS. THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION LIES ON THE
EXTREME WRN EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION...DUE TO STRONG WESTERLY
FLOW IN THE UPPER LEVELS. A LARGE CLUSTER OF NUMEROUS MODERATE/
STRONG CONVECTION HAS FORMED FROM 12N-15.5N BETWEEN 60W-64W WITH
A BAND OF NUMEROUS MODERATE/STRONG CONTINUING SSE FROM 9N-13N
BETWEEN 59W-62W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO
OVER THE ATLC FROM 13N-18N BETWEEN 55W-60W. THE DEEPEST
CONVECTION EXTENDS FROM THE ORINOCO DELTA IN NE VENEZUELA NWD
ACROSS TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO TO DOMINICA. SELECT RAINFALL TOTALS
OVER THE PAST 24 HRS INCLUDE 5.47" IN BARBADOS...2.91" IN
DOMINICA...2.06" IN MARTINIQUE...AND 2.05" IN TRINIDAD. WITH THE
DEPRESSION'S SLOW MOVEMENT AND RECENT BURST IN TSTM ACTIVITY...
CONTINUED HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE
WINDWARD/SRN LEEWARD ISLANDS FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 24 HRS.

1 PM EST Discussion.

[Windtalker1]

Sanibel super computer:


While climatology would strongly lean towards a Yucatan Channel recurve, 2005 is trending like it is a month behind in climatology. This leaves the possibility of an Iris-like track into Central America.

Anyone saying this was called a TD too early simply isn't looking at that cold top convection.

This storm is shouting category 3 once the shear relaxes...

Wilma followed climatology like she was suspose to. I fear this too will happen with soon to be Gamma. We have a major cold front making it's way down to S florida by the weekend, I think this cold front will be strong enough to curve Gamma North then NorthEast...Just my opion.

[DESTRUCTION5]

14/1145 UTC 13.7N 63.4W T2.0/2.0 94

Sitting on TS status...

[x-y-no]

Sanibel super computer:


While climatology would strongly lean towards a Yucatan Channel recurve, 2005 is trending like it is a month behind in climatology. This leaves the possibility of an Iris-like track into Central America.

Anyone saying this was called a TD too early simply isn't looking at that cold top convection.

This storm is shouting category 3 once the shear relaxes...

Wilma followed climatology like she was suspose to. I fear this too will happen with soon to be Gamma. We have a major cold front making it's way down to S florida by the weekend, I think this cold front will be strong enough to curve Gamma North then NorthEast...Just my opion.

If the first one catches it, then I think we're looking at a track like the CMC or UKMET - staying well east of South Florida.

If the first one misses but the next one catches, then we might have an issue.

[MortisFL]

Latest GFDL peaks it at 124 kts...minus 15-25%.
Curves it NW late in the period.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

[cycloneye]

14/1145 UTC 13.7N 63.4W T2.0/2.0 94

Sitting on TS status...

This is the latest SSD dvorak for this afternoon



14/1745 UTC 14.1N 64.2W T2.0/2.0 27 -- Atlantic Ocean


Destruction5 that one was from this morning but anyway is the same sat estimate.

[cjrciadt]

http://www.cira.colostate.edu/RAMM/Rmsdsol/TROPICAL.html
Moved over to soon to be Gamma.

[Windtalker1]

Sanibel super computer:


While climatology would strongly lean towards a Yucatan Channel recurve, 2005 is trending like it is a month behind in climatology. This leaves the possibility of an Iris-like track into Central America.

Anyone saying this was called a TD too early simply isn't looking at that cold top convection.

This storm is shouting category 3 once the shear relaxes...

Wilma followed climatology like she was suspose to. I fear this too will happen with soon to be Gamma. We have a major cold front making it's way down to S florida by the weekend, I think this cold front will be strong enough to curve Gamma North then NorthEast...Just my opion.

If the first one catches it, then I think we're looking at a track like the CMC or UKMET - staying well east of South Florida.

If the first one misses but the next one catches, then we might have an issue.

I think we are going to have an "ISSUE" (my opinion)

[DESTRUCTION5]

14/1145 UTC 13.7N 63.4W T2.0/2.0 94

Sitting on TS status...

This is the latest SSD dvorak for this afternoon



14/1745 UTC 14.1N 64.2W T2.0/2.0 27 -- Atlantic Ocean


Destruction5 that one was from this morning but anyway is the same sat estimate.

Darn cut and paste...!

[Budro999]

Saw this and thought some people here might find it interesting:

TPNT KGWC 141820
A. TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY SEVEN
B. 14/1731Z (122)
C. 14.6N/1
D. 62.6W/4
E. FIVE/GOES12
F. T2.5/2.5/STT:D0.5/15HRS -14/1731Z-
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

40A/ PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .40 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
GIVING A DT OF 2.5. FT IS BASED ON DT. PT AGREES.

AODT: T2.8 (ECCR)

KAMINSKI