TD 27,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[brunota2003]

yea, thanks, my computer locked up on me, thats where i got it from, if this shear debates and it uses that warm water to its full potentional, BOOM...

Can you decipher for us amateurs where you see teh 160 kt and 880 mb from the two charts you have posted?

Look at the chart, its color coded...gotta go, someone can decipher further if still not understood...

[WindRunner]

yea, thanks, my computer locked up on me, thats where i got it from, if this shear debates and it uses that warm water to its full potentional, BOOM...

Can you decipher for us amateurs where you see teh 160 kt and 880 mb from the two charts you have posted?

This is the maximum possible intensity of the storm based on the water temperature and the depth of the heat. In order for this intensity to be achieved, we would need an environment without any shear or land interaction as well as a perfectly formed storm in terms of structuring. Such peak intensities as shown on this chart have rarely happened, as a storm must also be moving fast enough so as not to use up all of this heat and cause itself to weaken.

[fci]

yea, thanks, my computer locked up on me, thats where i got it from, if this shear debates and it uses that warm water to its full potentional, BOOM...

Can you decipher for us amateurs where you see the 160 kt and 880 mb from the two charts you have posted?

Look at the chart, its color coded...gotta go, someone can decipher further if still not understood...

With all due respect the "black" part is the highest (or lowest for barometer" "potential".)
The area in black includes SO much area that it appears to be useless data to me.
The entire coast of Africa shows potential maximum winds of over 165 knots as does all of the Eastern Bahamas out several hundred miles!
NOWHERE ahead of TD 27 does it show these kind of "potential" winds.

Only south of TD27 does it show a "Potential" barometric pressure of below 880.
Oh, and along the African coast too.

All in all, I think it is irresponsible to post :
"OMG, just got informed that where TD 27 is heading, the max potentional for it is 150-165 knots and for pressure is <880, YES, SUB-880!!! OMFreakingG".

based on this chart.
You were not "informed" of this!!!
You interpreted a very general, useless chart to draw your own conclusion that borders on trolling.

In my opinion, it is alarmist and misleading to post this plus your response to me was condescending to boot. I can obviously see the colors but did not see the logic of it when thousands of square miles show this "potential" including areas that have NO chance for winds in excess of 165 knots and a barometric pressure below 880 mb!!!!!

Shame on you.

[dixiebreeze]

Cold, cold tops-- still looking very good. Check this image:

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseasthurrir.html

[JTD]

Are the cold cloud tops over the LLC, Dixie?

[JamesFromMaine2]

yea, thanks, my computer locked up on me, thats where i got it from, if this shear debates and it uses that warm water to its full potentional, BOOM...

Can you decipher for us amateurs where you see the 160 kt and 880 mb from the two charts you have posted?

Look at the chart, its color coded...gotta go, someone can decipher further if still not understood...

With all due respect the "black" part is the highest (or lowest for barometer" "potential".)
The area in black includes SO much area that it appears to be useless data to me.
The entire coast of Africa shows potential maximum winds of over 165 knots as does all of the Eastern Bahamas out several hundred miles!
NOWHERE ahead of TD 27 does it show these kind of "potential" winds.

Only south of TD27 does it show a "Potential" barometric pressure of below 880.
Oh, and along the African coast too.

All in all, I think it is irresponsible to post :
"OMG, just got informed that where TD 27 is heading, the max potentional for it is 150-165 knots and for pressure is <880, YES, SUB-880!!! OMFreakingG".

based on this chart.
You were not "informed" of this!!!
You interpreted a very general, useless chart to draw your own conclusion that borders on trolling.

In my opinion, it is alarmist and misleading to post this plus your response to me was condescending to boot. I can obviously see the colors but did not see the logic of it when thousands of square miles show this "potential" including areas that have NO chance for winds in excess of 165 knots and a barometric pressure below 880 mb!!!!!

Shame on you.

Sorry to say but the potential is what he said I was the one who informed him of that! Hurricanes hardly ever get to their potential Wilma came close but even she didn't get to it! and his response was not wrong at all! Conditions have to be perfect in order for it to get to its potential.

[JamesFromMaine2]

is it possible we have a Tropical Storm now?

[CHRISTY]

[SouthFloridawx]

Looks like the convection is moving west towards the southern end of the center.... there is less shear there.

[brunota2003]

OMG, just got informed that where TD 27 is heading, the max potentional for it is 150-165 knots and for pressure is <880, YES, SUB-880!!! OMFreakingG

Hmmmm... No where did I say in that post that the winds would be above 165, you can double check, but no where did I state that it would be 165 knots plus... Oh, and as for the color-coded thing, I had to go somewhere, so no, it was not rude, I just didnt have time to explain...

[SouthFloridawx]

OMG, just got informed that where TD 27 is heading, the max potentional for it is 150-165 knots and for pressure is <880, YES, SUB-880!!! OMFreakingG

Hmmmm... No where did I say in that post that the winds would be above 165, you can double check, but no where did I state that it would be 165 knots plus... Oh, and as for the color-coded thing, I had to go somewhere, so no, it was not rude, I just didnt have time to explain...

I understood what you meant... it's cool and I wasn't 100% sure how to read that chart...

[brunota2003]

OMG, just got informed that where TD 27 is heading, the max potentional for it is 150-165 knots and for pressure is <880, YES, SUB-880!!! OMFreakingG

Hmmmm... No where did I say in that post that the winds would be above 165, you can double check, but no where did I state that it would be 165 knots plus... Oh, and as for the color-coded thing, I had to go somewhere, so no, it was not rude, I just didnt have time to explain...

I understood what you meant... it's cool and I wasn't 100% sure how to read that chart...

Ok, just making sure, since that one long post, forgot who posted it , was a little rude, anyways, going back to 27L...It looks alot better than what it did about an hour or so ago...
EDIT: fci posted it...

[P.K.]

WHXX04 KWBC 142325
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-SE 27L

INITIAL TIME 18Z NOV 14

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 13.9 64.5 290./ 7.0
6 14.2 64.7 333./ 3.1
12 14.8 65.6 303./11.2
18 15.2 66.6 293./10.4
24 15.4 68.3 276./16.7
30 15.4 69.8 273./14.2
36 15.6 70.9 277./10.4
42 15.6 72.5 272./16.0
48 15.4 73.9 261./13.1
54 15.2 74.9 258./10.0
60 15.2 76.0 268./10.3
66 15.1 77.1 268./11.3
72 15.3 78.2 277./10.9
78 15.3 79.3 272./10.5
84 15.2 80.2 261./ 8.4
90 15.1 81.2 268./ 9.5
96 14.9 81.9 250./ 7.6
102 14.7 82.3 242./ 3.7
108 14.6 82.4 254./ 1.4
114 14.8 82.6 315./ 2.1
120 14.9 82.7 301./ 1.7
126 15.1 82.6 23./ 2.5

[fci]

I was not rude.

Your post read like there was a likelihood of a storm with over 160 kt wind and pressure below 880 mb.
You did not represent it as "if conditions were perfect that it COULD happen".
It said that you were informed based on where it was heading.
Accompanied by a lot of panic emoticons.

It was an alarmist post surely overstating the potential for something horrific to happen.

IMO, the tone was wrong and it was well beyond what should be posted.

[WindRunner]

yea, thanks, my computer locked up on me, thats where i got it from, if this shear debates and it uses that warm water to its full potentional, BOOM...

Can you decipher for us amateurs where you see the 160 kt and 880 mb from the two charts you have posted?

Look at the chart, its color coded...gotta go, someone can decipher further if still not understood...

With all due respect the "black" part is the highest (or lowest for barometer" "potential".)
The area in black includes SO much area that it appears to be useless data to me.
The entire coast of Africa shows potential maximum winds of over 165 knots as does all of the Eastern Bahamas out several hundred miles!
NOWHERE ahead of TD 27 does it show these kind of "potential" winds.

Only south of TD27 does it show a "Potential" barometric pressure of below 880.
Oh, and along the African coast too.

All in all, I think it is irresponsible to post :
"OMG, just got informed that where TD 27 is heading, the max potentional for it is 150-165 knots and for pressure is <880, YES, SUB-880!!! OMFreakingG".

based on this chart.
You were not "informed" of this!!!
You interpreted a very general, useless chart to draw your own conclusion that borders on trolling.

In my opinion, it is alarmist and misleading to post this plus your response to me was condescending to boot. I can obviously see the colors but did not see the logic of it when thousands of square miles show this "potential" including areas that have NO chance for winds in excess of 165 knots and a barometric pressure below 880 mb!!!!!

Shame on you.

Actually, if you look just south of Jamaica, you see a black area as well. This also means that the blues around it are almost in the black range, and still very potent. I agree that the original post may have been a little dramatic as that black area is there most of the season in a larger form, but it was still worth noting. And in all truth, that map is the potential for something horrific to happen.

[brunota2003]

I was not rude.

Your post read like there was a likelihood of a storm with over 160 kt wind and pressure below 880 mb.
You did not represent it as "if conditions were perfect that it COULD happen".
It said that you were informed based on where it was heading.
Accompanied by a lot of panic emoticons.

It was an alarmist post surely overstating the potential for something horrific to happen.

IMO, the tone was wrong and it was well beyond what should be posted.

you know, we dropped this about 5 posts ago, and you continue to drag it out...

yea, thanks, my computer locked up on me, thats where i got it from, if this shear debates and it uses that warm water to its full potentional, BOOM...

And I have been told I didnt do anything wrong, how else was I suppose to state it??? A Cat 5 into NYC???

OMG, just got informed that where TD 27 is heading, the max potentional for it is 150-165 knots and for pressure is <880, YES, SUB-880!!! OMFreakingG

EDIT: OK, only one, but still...

[P.K.]

18:00GMT GFDL takes TD 27 towards the coast of Nicaragua before moving off to the NE. http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2.cgi?time=2005111418-twenty-se27l&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

[fci]

Last post on the subject from me.

Not all of us sit in front of the screen to reply immediately; so 5 posts may have transpired in the time that I took to respond, had to run my daughter to dance.

If you want to deny that you were alarmist and dramatic, feel free;
but do you think the phrase "YES, SUB-880!!! OMFreakingG" is a little over the top?

I certainly do.

Don't know who told you you did nothing wrong but you did.

Certainly your original post elicited 3 immediate replies since it was so dramatic and was not deserving to be so.

My last word and apologies to others for dragging it out so long.

[SouthFloridawx]

Last post on the subject from me.

Not all of us sit in front of the screen to reply immediately; so 5 posts may have transpired in the time that I took to respond, had to run my daughter to dance.

If you want to deny that you were alarmist and dramatic, feel free;
but do you think the phrase "YES, SUB-880!!! OMFreakingG" is a little over the top?

I certainly do.

Don't know who told you you did nothing wrong but you did.

Certainly your original post elicited 3 immediate replies since it was so dramatic and was not deserving to be so.

My last word and apologies to others for dragging it out so long.

can we stick with td 27?

[WindRunner]

That GFDL must think Nicaragua has a force field or something . . .