TD 27,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[tampaflwx]

nicaragua will have had a lot of storms this season

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

It will have only been there second. If this doe's get named in hit them. It will be Beta,Gamma.

[Windtalker1]

That GFDL must think Nicaragua has a force field or something . . .

GFDL is to far South....can you say "Wilma Path"?

[WindRunner]

That GFDL must think Nicaragua has a force field or something . . .

GFDL is to far South....can you say "Wilma Path"?

Sure . . . but I'd rather not.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Shear down to 10 knots over the islands. 20 knots to the north...Decreasing again. Should slowly becoming faverable from here on out.

[cjrciadt]

[Recurve]

Pretty durn cold cloud tops persisting. Shear not really ripping the convection away. LLC seems to be (seems from IR loop, so just a hunch) slipping south and won't be as far out from the convection. Still quite warm down there.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Just think if this got into the western Caribbean...Then a trough/weakness picks it up taking it in a Gordon(1994). Or maybe a Charley 2004 a path through the caribbean then trough picking it up forcing it sharply into Florida.

[cjrciadt]

[milankovitch]

Pretty durn cold cloud tops persisting. Shear not really ripping the convection away. LLC seems to be (seems from IR loop, so just a hunch) slipping south and won't be as far out from the convection. Still quite warm down there.

I do get that reformation impression as well although can't be to certain from IR.

[brunota2003]

Last post on the subject from me.

Not all of us sit in front of the screen to reply immediately; so 5 posts may have transpired in the time that I took to respond, had to run my daughter to dance.

If you want to deny that you were alarmist and dramatic, feel free;
but do you think the phrase "YES, SUB-880!!! OMFreakingG" is a little over the top?

I certainly do.

Don't know who told you you did nothing wrong but you did.

Certainly your original post elicited 3 immediate replies since it was so dramatic and was not deserving to be so.

My last word and apologies to others for dragging it out so long.

Sorry guys for redragging this out, but I was playing dominos, so didnt get a chance to "Defend" my part, anyways,
1. I AM NOT AN ALARMIST, if thats even a word...
2. THE Phrase "YES, SUB-880!!!" was not to be happy, I couldnt remember how a less than sign went, now I remember...
3. It was not "that" dramatic IMO, it just needed to be stated...
4. I almost always put !!! at the end of what I post!!!
5. (In an earlier post) I did not put above 165, I specificly stated 150-165 knots

OMG, just got informed that where TD 27 is heading, the max potentional for it is 150-165 knots and for pressure is <880, YES, SUB-880!!! OMFreakingG

Anyways, I think I'm done posting for a long time, I just state a fact and get jumped on for it...!!!

[brunota2003]

Oh, one last post before I go back to lurking, it looks like TD 27 is getting better organized, and that it could possibly strengthen, praying that it just falls apart...

[Budro999]

Latest tropical model runs still leave the system as a depression but drop the pressure to 1004 mb at initialization.

[TS Zack]

Yes, certainly getting a little better organized.

It looks like tomorrow we will have a extensive Severe Weather Outbreak across the Ms Valley. Anyone in that area be prepared to take cover.

More damage to add to the Weather Systems of 2005. Hopefully not lives!

[Opal storm]

Just think if this got into the western Caribbean...Then a trough/weakness picks it up taking it in a Gordon(1994). Or maybe a Charley 2004 a path through the caribbean then trough picking it up forcing it sharply into Florida.

Highly doubt it.I think this is going to either go due west towards Central America or take a sharp NE back out to sea,passing well south of FL.

[Budro999]

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-SEV (AL272005) ON 20051115 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
051115 0000 051115 1200 051116 0000 051116 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 14.4N 64.8W 14.8N 65.8W 15.1N 66.7W 15.2N 67.8W
BAMM 14.4N 64.8W 14.8N 66.6W 15.0N 68.3W 14.9N 70.2W
A98E 14.4N 64.8W 14.8N 66.1W 14.9N 67.6W 15.0N 69.1W
LBAR 14.4N 64.8W 15.1N 66.0W 16.0N 67.1W 16.8N 67.9W
SHIP 30KTS 30KTS 31KTS 33KTS
DSHP 30KTS 30KTS 31KTS 33KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
051117 0000 051118 0000 051119 0000 051120 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 14.9N 68.9W 14.0N 71.3W 13.9N 73.6W 15.1N 75.8W
BAMM 14.8N 72.3W 14.9N 76.3W 15.4N 79.4W 15.7N 81.4W
A98E 15.2N 70.7W 15.2N 73.6W 15.5N 76.5W 16.3N 78.8W
LBAR 17.2N 68.2W 17.0N 67.1W 17.2N 62.9W 19.8N 57.1W
SHIP 36KTS 44KTS 46KTS 40KTS
DSHP 36KTS 44KTS 46KTS 40KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 14.4N LONCUR = 64.8W DIRCUR = 290DEG SPDCUR = 7KT
LATM12 = 13.8N LONM12 = 63.4W DIRM12 = 292DEG SPDM12 = 7KT
LATM24 = 13.2N LONM24 = 62.1W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1004MB OUTPRS = 1008MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[Recurve]

Brunota -- don't take it personal. Liked the information you posted, and most of us won't assume the WCS is likely no matter what anyone posts, but we consider it. Temps are warm there. This whole season has been freaky.
As long as everyone stays respectful, it's all good. Shrug off and stay in the discussion.

[brunota2003]

Brunota -- don't take it personal. Liked the information you posted, and most of us won't assume the WCS is likely no matter what anyone posts, but we consider it. Temps are warm there. This whole season has been freaky.
As long as everyone stays respectful, it's all good. Shrug off and stay in the discussion.

Ok, lol It still doesnt look good, still hoping shear kills it!!! but you know the old saying, "what doesnt kill me only makes me stronger" It seems like the only thing that has held true this season...

[mike815]

Yeah TIM. Keep it up.

[brunota2003]

Yeah TIM. Keep it up.

OMG, mike, your no longer a speck of dust in the wind of a Tropical Wave!!! Your a speck of dust in a Tropical Low now!!!