TD 27,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[mike815]

Yeah good one. LOL

[jusforsean]

http://tsr.mssl.ucl.ac.uk/

I am sure that everyone here has been there but i recently came accross it and it had a pretty coll tracking system and actually spells out the model for people like me who are weather impaired. Just thought it was cool check it out....

[mike815]

Cool yeah i like that one. Thanks!

[Brent]

Still a TD at 10pm.

*bored with this storm*

[mike815]

How can u say that the pressure is down. Be patient.

[HURAKAN]

Still a TD at 10pm.

*bored with this storm*

IT FORMED JUST 24 HOURS AGO!!!!!

[wxmann_91]

Still a TD at 10pm.

*bored with this storm*

I didn't really care about this little guy, rather I am watching the progged tornado outbreak across much of the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys tomorrow.

[SouthFloridawx]

Still a TD at 10pm.

*bored with this storm*

IT FORMED JUST 24 HOURS AGO!!!!!

we have been really spoiled this year.!!!!!

[SouthFloridawx]

some convection forming nearer to the center now as shear relaxes....

[wxman57]

I'm convinced that most of you are looking at some other disturbance than I am. I see nothing more than a highly-sheared tropical wave in the eastern Caribbean. The NHC can call it a depression, but there's very little evidence of any LLC and no persistent convection within 100 miles of the area of lower pressure. I still think there's a better cance that it'll dissipate than become a TS or hurricane. Wind shear is still pretty strong across its path.

[Brent]

Still a TD at 10pm.

*bored with this storm*

IT FORMED JUST 24 HOURS AGO!!!!!

It's not that... I am hurricaned out. I am not sitting here all day staring at the satellite like I did during every other storm this season. The lull after Beta just made me completely lose interest.

[SouthFloridawx]

I'm convinced that most of you are looking at some other disturbance than I am. I see nothing more than a highly-sheared tropical wave in the eastern Caribbean. The NHC can call it a depression, but there's very little evidence of any LLC and no persistent convection within 100 miles of the area of lower pressure. I still think there's a better cance that it'll dissipate than become a TS or hurricane. Wind shear is still pretty strong across its path.

I think you'll be saying something different by tomorrow...

[wxman57]

I'm convinced that most of you are looking at some other disturbance than I am. I see nothing more than a highly-sheared tropical wave in the eastern Caribbean. The NHC can call it a depression, but there's very little evidence of any LLC and no persistent convection within 100 miles of the area of lower pressure. I still think there's a better cance that it'll dissipate than become a TS or hurricane. Wind shear is still pretty strong across its path.

I think you'll be saying something different by tomorrow...

We shall see. The NHC was forecsating it to be a TS this afternoon. The GFDL 18Z run had it to 59 kts at 00Z this evening. Nowhere close. NHC has been saying it's "getting better organized" all day and it still looks pathetic. Those satellite estimates are very sensitive to where the center is initialized. This thing has no center anywhere near any convection, if it has one at all, so the satellite estimates will be too high. Too much of that "w" word going on here, I think.

[SouthFloridawx]

I'm convinced that most of you are looking at some other disturbance than I am. I see nothing more than a highly-sheared tropical wave in the eastern Caribbean. The NHC can call it a depression, but there's very little evidence of any LLC and no persistent convection within 100 miles of the area of lower pressure. I still think there's a better cance that it'll dissipate than become a TS or hurricane. Wind shear is still pretty strong across its path.

I think you'll be saying something different by tomorrow...

We shall see. The NHC was forecsating it to be a TS this afternoon. The GFDL 18Z run had it to 59 kts at 00Z this evening. Nowhere close. NHC has been saying it's "getting better organized" all day and it still looks pathetic. Those satellite estimates are very sensitive to where the center is initialized. This thing has no center anywhere near any convection, if it has one at all, so the satellite estimates will be too high. Too much of that "w" word going on here, I think.

so this center is not the correct center...

[terpfan]

I wouldn't say that I am bored w/ 27, but I am fatigued with this season.

In light of how late it is in the season, and the warm sst ahead, and diminishing wind shear, the possiblity of further intensification as a result of a developing anticyclone to the north of the forecast track(at approximately the point at which it should be approaching the highest sst in the carribean), AND the chance that a coming trof could very well induce a N to NE turn towards the end of the five day forecast period (ala latest UKMET)...I'd say 27 is pretty darn interesting, especially for me in here in Broward County, FL. Too early to worry, but it has piqued my curiosity.

The last thing I want to do is put the #$@!*&! shutters up AGAIN...ON or about THANKSGIVING!

[THead]

I wouldn't say that I am bored w/ 27, but I am fatigued with this season.

In light of how late it is in the season, and the warm sst ahead, and diminishing wind shear, the possiblity of further intensification as a result of a developing anticyclone to the north of the forecast track(at approximately the point at which it should be approaching the highest sst in the carribean), AND the chance that a coming trof could very well induce a N to NE turn towards the end of the five day forecast period (ala latest UKMET)...I'd say 27 is pretty darn interesting, especially for me in here in Broward County, FL. Too early to worry, but it has piqued my curiosity.

The last thing I want to do is put the #$@!*&! shutters up AGAIN...ON or about THANKSGIVING!

No kiddin man, it has my full attention too. I don't like the prospects of where it could be in 5 days. I hope wxman57 is right. What is nagging at me is these storms with similar tracks, within weeks of each other. Frances/Jeanne, Katrina/Rita, Wilma/Gamma?! Hopefully not.

[terpfan]

If I had to put the shutters up AGAIN, that would be the FOURTH time this season (Katrina, Rita, and Wilma already)! Since my family moved here (1978) that is a record...by a longshot.

[JamesFromMaine2]

Center reforming?

[SouthFloridawx]

interesting... looks like it may be a mid level circulation

[SouthFloridawx]

654

WTNT80 EGRR 150500



MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC



AND ATLANTIC



GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 15.11.2005





TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-SEVEN ANALYSED POSITION : 14.1N 65.1W



ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL272005



VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

00UTC 15.11.2005 14.1N 65.1W MODERATE

12UTC 15.11.2005 14.2N 66.7W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 16.11.2005 14.4N 68.6W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 16.11.2005 14.3N 70.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 17.11.2005 13.9N 71.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 17.11.2005 14.0N 72.8W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 18.11.2005 14.3N 74.1W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 18.11.2005 14.5N 75.6W STRONG INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY

00UTC 19.11.2005 15.0N 76.8W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 19.11.2005 15.7N 77.1W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 20.11.2005 16.2N 77.3W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 20.11.2005 16.8N 78.0W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY

00UTC 21.11.2005 17.5N 79.0W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY





THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE

RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS

AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT





MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK



TOO 150500