HIGH Risk now issued!!!!

[skysummit]

Watch out!!!

(Edited for accuracy) I removed the images since they were live and not longer show the "High Risk".

[P.K.]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2421
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0222 AM CST TUE NOV 15 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN OK/NRN AR/SRN MO/WRN KS/SRN IL/SRN IN/PARTS OF
WRN AND MIDDLE TN

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 862...863...

VALID 150822Z - 151015Z

SEVERE/TORNADO THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS WW 862 AND 863...WITH THREAT
FOR HEAVY RAIN ALSO CONTINUING -- ESPECIALLY FROM SERN MO ENEWD
ALONG/INVOF THE OH RIVER.

LATEST RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT STRONGEST CONVECTION REMAINS
CONFINED TO A NARROW ZONE INVOF MAIN WARM FRONT -- NOW EXTENDING
FROM SURFACE LOW OVER N CENTRAL OK EWD ACROSS FAR SRN MO AND THEN
ENEWD ROUGHLY ALONG THE OH RIVER. THOUGH INSTABILITY REMAINS
LIMITED ALONG THE BOUNDARY...STRONG DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD CONTINUES
TO SUPPORT A THREAT FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND MARGINAL HAIL
ALONG WITH A COUPLE OF TORNADOES.

THOUGH INSTABILITY IS GREATER S OF WARM FRONT...MAIN FORCING FOR
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT CONTINUES TO BE WARM ADVECTION ALONG AND N OF
BOUNDARY. EXPECT MAIN THREAT TO REMAIN CONFINED TO THE BOUNDARY AND
AREAS N FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...THOUGH MORE ISOLATED/CELLULAR
CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF WW 862/863 S OF WARM
FRONT AND MOVE RAPIDLY NWD TOWARD THE FRONT. THOUGH THIS MORE
CELLULAR CONVECTION HAS REMAINED GENERALLY SUB-SEVERE THUS
FAR...TORNADO THREAT REMAINS POSSIBLE SHOULD A FEW STRONGER STORMS
EVOLVE GIVEN LIKELIHOOD FOR RAPID ACQUISITION OF ROTATION WITH ANY
STRONGER CELL.

WITH LOW-LEVEL FLOW VEERING TO SWLY ACROSS MUCH OF OK AND DRY SLOT
APPARENTLY DEVELOPING/SPREADING EWD ACCORDING TO LATEST WV IMAGERY
-- IN SUPPORT OF MODEL FORECASTS...EXPECT MAIN SURFACE-BASED SEVERE
THREAT TO CONTINUE SHIFTING EWD ACROSS WW 862/AWAY FROM CENTRAL OK
WITH TIME.

..GOSS.. 11/15/2005


ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...TSA...ICT...OUN...

36719706 38308569 36318602 35269111 34669583

[Aburns530]

This is only the second time that I have seen a high risk area for us. The last time it happened we had a tornado touchdown just north of Louisville. It's kind of weird to see transfomers popping on tv and then your power goes out. Hopefully there won't be any touchdowns today (but I doubt it).

[skysummit]

The first Tornado Watches are up....ALREADY.

[jhamps10]

and another one just issued for areas east of the previous watch till 5PM CST.

[skysummit]

and another one just issued for areas east of the previous watch till 5PM CST.

Thanks....updated the image.

[KatDaddy]

Its going to be a very rough day across a large part of the nation. Please heed all warning and watch skyward. I am afraid this will be another life threatening event.

[weatherlover427]

Having a PDS watch issued this early in the day can't be good. I'm keeping that entire area of the country in my thoughts.

[skysummit]

Having a PDS watch issued this early in the day can't be good. I'm keeping that entire area of the country in my thoughts.

Same thinking here. I'm afraid this will be a catastrophically wide event covering many states. 8:30 CST and already a Tornado Warning. It's going to be very busy today.

[wlfpack81]

Not good as I have 2 sisters and 2 nieces in Memphis. I called them last night to give them a heads up for todya.

[jhamps10]

very busy day already. We have torando warnings in Evansville, IN as we speak!!!! UNCONFIRMED report of a torando touchdown in Posey County, IN by the public.

[skysummit]

very busy day already. We have torando warnings in Evansville, IN as we speak!!!! UNCONFIRMED report of a torando touchdown in Posey County, IN by the public.

A funnel cloud was just reported by a trained observer just east of Mount Vernon, IN.

[Skywatch_NC]

I have 3 cousins in the Mt. Vernon, IN area.

Eric

[wxmann_91]

Good luck and Godspeed to all today (and you'll need it, storms will be traveling at 60-70 mph). Potential for strong tornadoes is pretty high.

The Watch Probability Table for PDS Tornado Watch 865 just issued are off the charts.

There's a 90% probability two more more tornadoes, and a 70% of a strong tornado (F2 or greater) occurring.

[snoopj]

Got another PDS Tornado Watch (#866) to the north (including the St. Louis metro area, much of central Illinois, and southwestern Indiana. Busy day for the SPC and the local weather offices in those areas, for sure.

--snoopj

[wlfpack81]

Some schools closing early b/c of the risk:

http://www.news25.us/global/story.asp?s=4120991

[memphisvol]

so I should be keeping an eye on the sky here in memphis?

[wlfpack81]

^ YES. You're right under the gun and there's a nasty squall line heading your way as we speak.

[memphisvol]

yea i just checked and saw W. Memphis is under a Severe Tstorm warning now and its headed east, ah boy, as lnog as theres no hail here, my brand new car will be happy

[skysummit]

Some schools closing early b/c of the risk:

http://www.news25.us/global/story.asp?s=4120991

Is this normal? Do they usually close schools early for forecasted outbreaks?