TD 27,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[CHRISTY]

Late this week and into this weekend its going to get interesting because were soon to be gamma will be by then will determine the affects on the US from gamma....a pretty strong cold front is suppose to drop down into florida in a couple of days were gamma is at that time will determine were she turns NE but if gamma remains weak it will probably continue west and be to far south to feel the affects of this front.

[SouthFloridawx]

DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
15/0545 UTC 14.7N 65.4W T2.5/2.5 27 -- Atlantic Ocean

[SouthFloridawx]

WHXX04 KWBC 150522

CHGQLM

ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER



NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR



TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-SE 27L



INITIAL TIME 0Z NOV 15



DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT

REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD

NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC

OFFICIAL FORECAST.





FORECAST STORM POSITION



HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)



0 14.1 65.2 290./ 7.0

6 14.5 66.3 288./12.2

12 14.5 67.4 272./ 9.8

18 14.9 68.6 287./12.5

24 15.2 70.0 285./14.3

30 15.4 71.4 275./13.5

36 15.8 72.4 296./10.0

42 16.3 74.1 287./17.3

48 16.1 75.8 264./16.8

54 16.1 77.2 267./13.7

60 16.2 78.8 274./14.8

66 16.3 80.2 274./14.0

72 16.0 81.4 257./11.6

78 15.5 82.4 242./10.6

84 15.1 82.9 238./ 6.3

90 14.8 83.2 217./ 4.3

96 14.7 83.1 121./ 1.7

102 14.8 83.1 355./ 1.1

108 15.2 83.1 352./ 3.5

114 15.5 83.2 349./ 3.0

120 16.0 83.2 2./ 4.9

126 16.5 83.4 338./ 6.3


WHXX01 KWBC 150647

CHGHUR



DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.

PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.



NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR



TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-SEV (AL272005) ON 20051115 0600 UTC



...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...

051115 0600 051115 1800 051116 0600 051116 1800



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMD 14.5N 65.7W 14.9N 67.0W 15.1N 68.3W 15.0N 69.8W

BAMM 14.5N 65.7W 14.9N 67.8W 14.9N 69.9W 15.0N 72.4W

A98E 14.5N 65.7W 14.8N 67.3W 14.8N 69.1W 14.5N 71.1W

LBAR 14.5N 65.7W 14.9N 67.1W 15.7N 68.5W 16.4N 69.7W

SHIP 30KTS 30KTS 32KTS 34KTS

DSHP 30KTS 30KTS 32KTS 34KTS



...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...

051117 0600 051118 0600 051119 0600 051120 0600



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMD 14.8N 71.2W 15.0N 74.2W 16.5N 77.0W 18.8N 79.5W

BAMM 15.2N 74.8W 16.4N 79.4W 17.0N 82.6W 16.7N 84.5W

A98E 14.6N 73.1W 14.7N 76.4W 15.1N 78.9W 16.0N 81.4W

LBAR 16.7N 70.3W 16.7N 69.5W 16.2N 67.0W 17.5N 62.5W

SHIP 39KTS 50KTS 54KTS 47KTS

DSHP 39KTS 50KTS 54KTS 47KTS



...INITIAL CONDITIONS...

LATCUR = 14.5N LONCUR = 65.7W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR = 8KT

LATM12 = 14.1N LONM12 = 64.2W DIRM12 = 289DEG SPDM12 = 8KT

LATM24 = 13.6N LONM24 = 62.8W

WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 30KT

CENPRS = 1004MB OUTPRS = 1008MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D

RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM







000
AXNT20 KNHC 150518
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST TUE NOV 15 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0445 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-SEVEN IS CENTERED NEAR 14.5N 65.3W AT
15/0300 UTC OR ABOUT 230 NM S OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO MOVING WNW
AT 8 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40
KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM PRESSURE IS 1004 MB. SEE LATEST NHC
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 FOR
MORE DETAILS. THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION LIES ON THE
EXTREME NW EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION...DUE TO STRONG WESTERLY
FLOW IN THE UPPER LEVELS. A LARGE CLUSTER OF NUMEROUS STRONG
CONVECTION IS SE OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER FROM 11.5N-13N BETWEEN
62.5W-64.5W WITH SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION COVERING
THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA WITHIN 75 NM OF LINE 11N62W-15N64.5W.
WITH THE SLOW MOVEMENT AND CONTINUED STRONG CONVECTION...HEAVY
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE WINDWARD/S MOST
LEEWARD ISLANDS FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 24 HRS.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

For one the shear is still strong racing through the LLC. Keeping all convection 100 nmi to the east or southeast. Also it appears that the LLC is becoming less defined/Organized. If this keeps up for another 12 hours it might be down graded to a wave.

http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/rmsd ... PICAL.html

[cycloneye]

WHXX04 KWBC 151124
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-SE 27L

INITIAL TIME 6Z NOV 15

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 14.2 66.0 285./ 8.0
6 14.4 66.9 285./ 9.6
12 14.7 68.4 280./13.9
18 14.9 69.6 279./11.7
24 15.2 70.9 284./13.2
30 15.7 73.0 283./21.0
36 16.0 74.5 284./14.4
42 15.9 75.9 266./13.8
48 15.8 77.4 267./14.9
54 16.1 79.0 281./14.9
60 16.5 80.9 280./18.7
66 16.3 82.3 264./13.9
72 16.1 83.3 255./10.1
78 15.8 84.1 252./ 7.5
84 15.6 84.4 233./ 4.0
90 15.2 84.7 216./ 4.2
96 14.7 84.7 181./ 5.4
102 14.3 84.5 156./ 4.6
108 13.9 84.2 138./ 4.3
114 13.9 83.9 94./ 3.0
120 14.2 83.6 43./ 4.0
126 14.8 83.4 21./ 6.3


6z GFDL

[caribepr]

and once again...we've escaped. Sounds bad in St. Lucia though

[cycloneye]

and once again...we've escaped. Sounds bad in St. Lucia though

Yes the NE Caribbean area has dodged once again the bullet in 2005.IT looks like we will go in blank despite what this season has been as we know.

[cycloneye]

TPNT KGWC 151201
A. TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY SEVEN
B. 15/1131Z (122)
C. 13.9N/3
D. 66.4W/6
E. FIVE/GOES12
F. T2.5/2.5/D0.5/24HRS -15/1131Z-
G. IR/EIR

38A/ PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .40 ON LOG10 SPIRAL GIVING
A DT OF 2.5. FT IS BASED ON DT. PT AND MET AGREE.

AODT: T3.0 (IRREGULAR CDO)

WHALING


Air Force Sat Estimates.

[cycloneye]

15/1145 UTC 14.2N 66.5W T2.5/2.5 27 -- Atlantic Ocean


SSD dvorak sat estimates also has a 2.5 the same as the Air Force estimates so will Gamma be here very son?

[DESTRUCTION5]

15/1145 UTC 14.2N 66.5W T2.5/2.5 27 -- Atlantic Ocean


SSD dvorak sat estimates also has a 2.5 the same as the Air Force estimates so will Gamma be here very son?

I think this is because even though it still looks like Crap The convection has found its skeleton...

[P.K.]

Give model guidance about 5 minutes and we might know.

[cycloneye]

Give model guidance about 5 minutes and we might know.

I am waiting.

[wxman57]

Well, it's morning and it still looks like a sheared wave on visible satellite. Can't find much evidence of an LLC. Recon is on the way now, so we'll see what it finds. Long-term track looks west then probably hooking SW into Nicaragua/Honduras as a cold front runs head-on into it by Sunday afternoon. Only other option is a stall then NE acceleration across eastern Cuba, and I don't think that's nearly as likely. Of course, it still needs to survive. WV imagery does indicate that shear is a bit less today, though.

[wxman57]

15/1145 UTC 14.2N 66.5W T2.5/2.5 27 -- Atlantic Ocean


SSD dvorak sat estimates also has a 2.5 the same as the Air Force estimates so will Gamma be here very son?

Satellite estimates are VERY sensitive to where the center is initialized. This estimate assumes that there is a center right beneath that one thunderstorm. However, there may be no LLC at all, or it could be 50-60 miles west of that point - even down near 13.5/66.2. If such a position were put into the satellite estimate estimator, then the Dvorak number goes down significantly.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-SEV (AL272005) ON 20051115 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
051115 1200 051116 0000 051116 1200 051117 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 14.2N 67.0W 14.4N 68.5W 14.2N 70.1W 13.9N 71.9W
BAMM 14.2N 67.0W 14.5N 69.3W 14.5N 71.8W 14.6N 74.4W
A98E 14.2N 67.0W 14.2N 69.1W 14.1N 71.2W 14.1N 73.5W
LBAR 14.2N 67.0W 14.4N 68.9W 15.0N 70.6W 15.6N 71.8W
SHIP 30KTS 30KTS 31KTS 35KTS
DSHP 30KTS 30KTS 31KTS 35KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
051117 1200 051118 1200 051119 1200 051120 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 13.6N 73.8W 14.2N 77.5W 15.8N 80.5W 18.3N 82.8W
BAMM 14.9N 77.1W 16.2N 81.7W 16.5N 84.9W 16.4N 87.5W
A98E 14.4N 75.7W 15.3N 79.3W 16.1N 82.1W 17.4N 84.2W
LBAR 15.7N 72.9W 16.0N 72.7W 15.8N 70.8W 16.9N 66.9W
SHIP 42KTS 54KTS 56KTS 48KTS
DSHP 42KTS 54KTS 56KTS 48KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 14.2N LONCUR = 67.0W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR = 10KT
LATM12 = 14.1N LONM12 = 65.0W DIRM12 = 273DEG SPDM12 = 9KT
LATM24 = 13.8N LONM24 = 63.4W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1004MB OUTPRS = 1008MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM


12:00z Models.Still a TD.

[P.K.]

Might even beat Luis here.....

Edit - Maybe not

[DESTRUCTION5]

Is it me or does old 93L look better than our TD at the moment?

[HURAKAN]

Is it me or does old 93L look better than our TD at the moment?

MAYBE!!

[cycloneye]

Maybe they are waiting for recon to get there to then upgrade if the crew finds tropical storm force winds.

[wxman57]

Is it me or does old 93L look better than our TD at the moment?

MAYBE!!

Just looking at that satellite picture, nothing would catch my eye as a TD. Just scattered thunderstorms along a shear zone.