TD 27,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

#301 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Tue Nov 15, 2005 12:40 pm

Shear is definitely decreasing...

#302 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Tue Nov 15, 2005 12:48 pm

654

WTNT80 EGRR 150500

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 15.11.2005

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-SEVEN ANALYSED POSITION : 14.1N 65.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL272005

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

00UTC 15.11.2005 14.1N 65.1W MODERATE

12UTC 15.11.2005 14.2N 66.7W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 16.11.2005 14.4N 68.6W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 16.11.2005 14.3N 70.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 17.11.2005 13.9N 71.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 17.11.2005 14.0N 72.8W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 18.11.2005 14.3N 74.1W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 18.11.2005 14.5N 75.6W STRONG INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY

00UTC 19.11.2005 15.0N 76.8W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 19.11.2005 15.7N 77.1W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 20.11.2005 16.2N 77.3W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 20.11.2005 16.8N 78.0W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY

00UTC 21.11.2005 17.5N 79.0W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE

RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS

AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 150500

DESTRUCTION5 · #303 Postby **DESTRUCTION5** » Tue Nov 15, 2005 12:51 pm

GFDL looks like an ingrown hair...LOL

http://www.skeetobiteweather.com/picser ... p?t=m&m=27

#304 Postby **Ivanhater** » Tue Nov 15, 2005 12:52 pm

thunderstorms starting to wrap around the center

#305 Postby **Windtalker1** » Tue Nov 15, 2005 12:57 pm

DESTRUCTION5 wrote:GFDL looks like an ingrown hair...LOL

http://www.skeetobiteweather.com/picser ... p?t=m&m=27

4 out of the 7 show a turn to the NW....in a couple days, they will all be showing this and also a more Northerly to Northeast turn approaching Cuba.....Just my opinion.

#306 Postby **Blown Away** » Tue Nov 15, 2005 1:04 pm

I think we will have Gamma before the end of the day. Looks a little better than this morning.

#307 Postby **skysummit** » Tue Nov 15, 2005 1:04 pm

DESTRUCTION5 wrote:GFDL looks like an ingrown hair...LOL

http://www.skeetobiteweather.com/picser ... p?t=m&m=27

hehehe...that's hilarious. Just think if they described the models like that in the official forecasts. :lol:

#308 Postby **dixiebreeze** » Tue Nov 15, 2005 1:05 pm

Windtalker1 wrote:
DESTRUCTION5 wrote:GFDL looks like an ingrown hair...LOL

http://www.skeetobiteweather.com/picser ... p?t=m&m=27
4 out of the 7 show a turn to the NW....in a couple days, they will all be showing this and also a more Northerly to Northeast turn approaching Cuba.....Just my opinion.

I agree.

#309 Postby **skysummit** » Tue Nov 15, 2005 1:14 pm

Spaghetti Time...
(look how big the cone gets at the end)

Tampa Bay Hurricane · #310 Postby **Tampa Bay Hurricane** » Tue Nov 15, 2005 1:20 pm

Development a likelihood given decreasing shear

#311 Postby **dixiebreeze** » Tue Nov 15, 2005 1:40 pm

Dvorak T # at 2.5/2.5 (don't know if it was already posted -- this thread's getting so long again.

#312 Postby **Ivanhater** » Tue Nov 15, 2005 2:00 pm

im not liking the models, looks like this might have a chance to get in the gulf

DESTRUCTION5 · #313 Postby **DESTRUCTION5** » Tue Nov 15, 2005 2:01 pm

ivanhater wrote:im not liking the models, looks like this might have a chance to get in the gulf

Chance Cancel...not going to happen man...

#314 Postby **Ivanhater** » Tue Nov 15, 2005 2:02 pm

DESTRUCTION5 wrote:
ivanhater wrote:im not liking the models, looks like this might have a chance to get in the gulf

Chance Cancel...not going to happen man...

are you sure? :wink:

#315 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Tue Nov 15, 2005 2:03 pm

ivanhater wrote:
DESTRUCTION5 wrote:
ivanhater wrote:im not liking the models, looks like this might have a chance to get in the gulf

Chance Cancel...not going to happen man...

are you sure?

No one knows for sure... all we can do is watch and wait... especially since new 93L is back I wonder how they are going to affect each other.... Hopefully will just cross the smallest part of central america as a harmless TD going 20 MPH and into the pacific....

#316 Postby **dixiebreeze** » Tue Nov 15, 2005 2:24 pm

Convection is really deepening again in 27 NoName:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... IR4/20.jpg

DESTRUCTION5 · #317 Postby **DESTRUCTION5** » Tue Nov 15, 2005 2:29 pm

ivanhater wrote:
DESTRUCTION5 wrote:
ivanhater wrote:im not liking the models, looks like this might have a chance to get in the gulf

Chance Cancel...not going to happen man...

are you sure?

99% With Temps o in the 50's all the way down to SFL and highs in the upper 60's I have to say anything north of 20N seems impossible...

Website · #318 Postby **Brent** » Tue Nov 15, 2005 2:30 pm

DESTRUCTION5 wrote:
ivanhater wrote:
DESTRUCTION5 wrote:
ivanhater wrote:im not liking the models, looks like this might have a chance to get in the gulf

Chance Cancel...not going to happen man...

are you sure?

99% With Temps o in the 50's all the way down to SFL and highs in the upper 60's I have to say anything north of 20N seems impossible...

Yeah... there is NO WAY this hits the Gulf Coast... today is the last day above 70 we are expecting until further notice. Very major cold front coming...

Website · #319 Postby **Brent** » Tue Nov 15, 2005 2:31 pm

dixiebreeze wrote:Convection is really deepening again in 27 NoName:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... IR4/20.jpg

Badly sheared and recon hasn't found a closed circulation yet(apparently).

CHRISTY · #320 Postby **CHRISTY** » Tue Nov 15, 2005 2:36 pm

looking better this afternoon convection trying to rap arournd the low level center....but then again we will see cause its november!

TD 27,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

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