Invest 93L Caribbean,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[brunota2003]

Yes I have been busy watching td27 as well , so at what point exactly should they collide?? Tonight , tommorrow??? If they do at all?? I hate the waiting game but i cant seem to stay away from the tropics either:)

I dont know either...hmmmm... The Day After Tomorrow???

[WindRunner]

Uh you have that completely backwards. IF a fujiwara occurred, 93 would be pushed southward and 27 would go north.

I was never good with things like that . . . I knew it was counter-clockwise, but I just got the counter-clockwise part messed up. The other way wouldn't be as interesting. Oh well, thanks for fixing that.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 PM EST TUE NOV 15 2005

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
DEPRESSION TWENTY-SEVEN... LOCATED ABOUT 250 MILES SOUTH OF SANTO
DOMINGO IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.

DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA AND ADJACENT LAND AREAS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR SLOW
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
REGARDLESS OF WHETHER OR NOT THE SYSTEM BECOMES A TROPICAL
CYCLONE...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AMERICA FROM PANAMA TO NICARAGUA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...AND THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS
AND MUD SLIDES.

ELSEWHERE... TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN



10:30 PM TWO

[JamesFromMaine2]

when will they put floater 2 on this system?

[mike815]

I know right come on floater.

[mike815]

I know right come on floater.

[HURAKAN]

93L IS LOOKING VERY NICE!

[SouthFloridawx]

[SouthFloridawx]

[fasterdisaster]

93L IS LOOKING VERY NICE!

The cloud mass is touching 27. It looks like it could be starting to absorb 27.

[P.K.]

WHXX01 KWBC 160650
CHGHUR

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

.....THE FOLLOWING IS A TEST MESSAGE.....

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST (AL932005) ON 20051116 0600 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
051116 0600 051116 1800 051117 0600 051117 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 11.1N 80.3W 11.4N 82.4W 11.5N 84.5W 11.6N 86.5W
BAMM 11.1N 80.3W 11.4N 81.9W 11.4N 83.3W 11.4N 84.6W
A98E 11.1N 80.3W 11.3N 81.9W 11.2N 83.5W 11.0N 85.3W
LBAR 11.1N 80.3W 11.5N 82.0W 12.3N 83.6W 13.1N 85.5W
SHIP 25KTS 31KTS 36KTS 41KTS
DSHP 25KTS 31KTS 36KTS 31KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
051118 0600 051119 0600 051120 0600 051121 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 11.5N 88.5W 11.0N 92.2W 11.6N 95.7W 12.0N 97.4W
BAMM 11.5N 85.6W 11.1N 86.4W 10.5N 87.9W 9.0N 89.2W
A98E 11.0N 87.1W 10.3N 90.9W 9.7N 94.7W 8.9N 98.2W
LBAR 14.1N 86.6W 15.7N 87.3W 17.2N 86.1W 19.2N 82.6W
SHIP 44KTS 46KTS 35KTS 21KTS
DSHP 28KTS 29KTS 19KTS 0KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 11.1N LONCUR = 80.3W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 7KT
LATM12 = 10.9N LONM12 = 79.0W DIRM12 = 282DEG SPDM12 = 5KT
LATM24 = 10.7N LONM24 = 78.1W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 90NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1006MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 175NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

.....THE ABOVE HAS BEEN A TEST MESSAGE.....

[JamesFromMaine2]

16/0545 UTC 11.6N 79.7W T1.0/1.0 93

[cycloneye]

000
ABNT20 KNHC 161006
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 AM EST WED NOV 16 2005

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
DEPRESSION TWENTY-SEVEN... LOCATED ABOUT 275 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
OF SANTO DOMINGO IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.

A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES EAST OF
SOUTHERN NICARAGUA IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS...
SHOWERS...AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN AND WESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE ADJACENT LAND AREAS. THIS SYSTEM IS MOVING
SLOWLY WESTWARD AND HAS BECOME MORE ORGANIZED SINCE YESTERDAY.
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FAVORABLE FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT...AS LONG AS
THE SYSTEM REMAINS OVER WATER. REGARDLESS OF WHETHER OR NOT A
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMS IN THIS AREA...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS
LIKELY OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA FROM PANAMA TO HONDURAS
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

ELSEWHERE... TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY.

FORECASTER PASCH


5:30 AM TWO

[JamesFromMaine2]

WHXX04 KWBC 161121
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST 93L

INITIAL TIME 6Z NOV 16

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 11.2 80.4 280./ 7.0
6 11.3 80.7 290./ 2.9
12 11.4 81.2 280./ 5.3
18 11.5 81.8 278./ 5.9
24 11.3 82.0 223./ 2.5
30 11.4 82.0 333./ 1.3
36 11.8 82.0 2./ 3.1
42 11.9 81.9 24./ 1.7
48 12.5 81.8 15./ 5.6
54 13.2 81.8 2./ 7.5
60 13.6 82.3 307./ 6.7
66 13.9 82.6 319./ 4.3
72 14.2 82.7 344./ 2.9
78 14.9 83.1 330./ 7.8
84 15.1 83.6 288./ 5.6
90 14.9 84.0 248./ 3.6
96 14.9 83.8 106./ 1.4
102 15.4 83.8 10./ 4.5
108 15.7 83.7 10./ 3.9
114 16.0 83.3 55./ 4.3
120 16.5 82.6 57./ 8.7
126 17.2 81.8 50./10.4

[caribepr]

000
ABNT20 KNHC 161006
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 AM EST WED NOV 16 2005

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
DEPRESSION TWENTY-SEVEN... LOCATED ABOUT 275 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
OF SANTO DOMINGO IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.

A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES EAST OF
SOUTHERN NICARAGUA IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS...
SHOWERS...AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN AND WESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE ADJACENT LAND AREAS. THIS SYSTEM IS MOVING
SLOWLY WESTWARD AND HAS BECOME MORE ORGANIZED SINCE YESTERDAY.
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FAVORABLE FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT...AS LONG AS
THE SYSTEM REMAINS OVER WATER. REGARDLESS OF WHETHER OR NOT A
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMS IN THIS AREA...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS
LIKELY OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA FROM PANAMA TO HONDURAS
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

ELSEWHERE... TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY.

FORECASTER PASCH


5:30 AM TWO

A friend of mine left for Panama yesterday, for two months. I gave him a easy packing rain poncho off the cart for a going away present and he gave me this look. I said...Trust me, just take it. Hope he has a good hotel

[cycloneye]

16/1145 UTC 12.1N 80.3W T1.0/1.0 93 -- Atlantic Ocean

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST (AL932005) ON 20051116 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
051116 1200 051117 0000 051117 1200 051118 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 11.5N 80.5W 12.1N 82.1W 12.7N 83.5W 13.3N 84.9W
BAMM 11.5N 80.5W 11.9N 81.9W 12.2N 83.1W 12.4N 84.3W
A98E 11.5N 80.5W 11.8N 81.6W 11.9N 83.0W 12.0N 84.5W
LBAR 11.5N 80.5W 12.0N 82.1W 13.0N 83.5W 13.8N 84.9W
SHIP 25KTS 29KTS 33KTS 37KTS
DSHP 25KTS 29KTS 33KTS 30KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
051118 1200 051119 1200 051120 1200 051121 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 13.7N 86.0W 14.4N 87.4W 15.9N 88.2W 19.5N 83.9W
BAMM 12.6N 85.1W 12.7N 85.7W 12.6N 86.0W 11.9N 86.3W
A98E 12.4N 85.9W 12.5N 88.9W 12.5N 91.7W 13.1N 93.9W
LBAR 14.4N 85.3W 15.5N 85.3W 16.8N 83.4W 18.4N 81.1W
SHIP 41KTS 42KTS 33KTS 20KTS
DSHP 28KTS 27KTS 27KTS 27KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 11.5N LONCUR = 80.5W DIRCUR = 290DEG SPDCUR = 5KT
LATM12 = 11.0N LONM12 = 79.5W DIRM12 = 287DEG SPDM12 = 5KT
LATM24 = 10.8N LONM24 = 78.6W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 90NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1006MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM



12:00z Models

[cycloneye]

Graphic of 12:00z Model Run.

[boca]

Lets hope this continues inland and doesn't hook north towards Florida.This looks ominous.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

[cycloneye]

ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (WESTERN CARIBBEAN)
A. 17/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01JJA INVEST
C. 17/1345Z
D. 12.5N 82.5W
E. 17/1700Z TO 17/2030Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: A FOLLOW ON MISSION
FOR 18/1800Z IF SYSTEM REMAINS OFF SHORE.


Recon for Thursday with takeoff at 9:45 AM EST.