Invest 93L Caribbean,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[wxman57]

I see a lower-level circulation near 12.45N/81.4W. Can't tell if it extends to the surface, though.

As for movement, if you look at the mid and upper-level cloud motions, then you would think it is racing off to the west at that 15-20 kts which was mentioned. However, if you ignore those clouds and look down near the surface at the small cumumul clouds streaming into the low, then you will see a slow NW drift, perhaps 5-8 mph.

I think it looks far better than TD 27 ever did, but I don't think TD 27 ever had an LLC. So why doesn't the NHC call this TD 28? Who knows? It's future seems pretty clear cut. Moves NW off Honduras by Friday, possibly as a TD/TS then the front slams into it, roughs it up, then spits it out to the NE across eastern Cuba and the DR as a sheared sysetm that's mostly a rain maker.

[cycloneye]

I see a lower-level circulation near 12.45N/81.4W. Can't tell if it extends to the surface, though.

As for movement, if you look at the mid and upper-level cloud motions, then you would think it is racing off to the west at that 15-20 kts which was mentioned. However, if you ignore those clouds and look down near the surface at the small cumumul clouds streaming into the low, then you will see a slow NW drift, perhaps 5-8 mph.

I think it looks far better than TD 27 ever did, but I don't think TD 27 ever had an LLC. So why doesn't the NHC call this TD 28? Who knows? It's future seems pretty clear cut. Moves NW off Honduras by Friday, possibly as a TD/TS then the front slams into it, roughs it up, then spits it out to the NE across eastern Cuba and the DR as a sheared sysetm that's mostly a rain maker.

Good points 57.Maybe they are going more slow with this because if it gets inland in centralamerica then it could be a waste TD classification and they are looking at what kind of movement it takes to see if it gets inland more quick or not.

[boca]

I agree wxman57 as long as it stays clear of Florida which hopefully it will with these cold fronts and deepening trough setting up shop in the East. NE bound across Eastern Cuba and the DR seems reasonable.

[Budro999]

I see a lower-level circulation near 12.45N/81.4W. Can't tell if it extends to the surface, though.

As for movement, if you look at the mid and upper-level cloud motions, then you would think it is racing off to the west at that 15-20 kts which was mentioned. However, if you ignore those clouds and look down near the surface at the small cumumul clouds streaming into the low, then you will see a slow NW drift, perhaps 5-8 mph.

I think it looks far better than TD 27 ever did, but I don't think TD 27 ever had an LLC. So why doesn't the NHC call this TD 28? Who knows? It's future seems pretty clear cut. Moves NW off Honduras by Friday, possibly as a TD/TS then the front slams into it, roughs it up, then spits it out to the NE across eastern Cuba and the DR as a sheared sysetm that's mostly a rain maker.

Good points 57.Maybe they are going more slow with this because if it gets inland in centralamerica then it could be a waste TD classification.

Do you think the NHC is bothered with classifying systems that will be onshore in a short time? I don't think they are since they did not hesitate to classify Bret and Jose earlier in the season, and those systems were on the coast within 6 hours. I think they would upgrade the system if a ship sent back a report of 25-30 kt winds close to the center, like what happened with TD 27.

[wxman57]

Do you think the NHC is bothered with classifying systems that will be onshore in a short time? I don't think they are since they did not hesitate to classify Bret and Jose earlier in the season, and those systems were on the coast within 6 hours. I think they would upgrade the system if a ship sent back a report of 25-30 kt winds close to the center, like what happened with TD 27.

It depends upon who is being affected by the disturbance. They're VERY quick to upgrade anything threatening the U.S. coast, and also something hitting the islands of the eastern Caribbean, apparently. Fine with me if they ignore it - I don't have to call someone into the office this evening to put out a track on it.

[Budro999]

Do you think the NHC is bothered with classifying systems that will be onshore in a short time? I don't think they are since they did not hesitate to classify Bret and Jose earlier in the season, and those systems were on the coast within 6 hours. I think they would upgrade the system if a ship sent back a report of 25-30 kt winds close to the center, like what happened with TD 27.

It depends upon who is being affected by the disturbance. They're VERY quick to upgrade anything threatening the U.S. coast, and also something hitting the islands of the eastern Caribbean, apparently. Fine with me if they ignore it - I don't have to call someone into the office this evening to put out a track on it.

Those are good points. Personally, I agree with something you said earlier where you said this disturbance looks better than TD 27 ever did. I have not seen the latest Dvorak numbers for the disturbance, but I would expect those numbers to be higher than the 1.0 classification from earlier today.

[Coredesat]

The numbers for 1745 UTC are still T1.0/1.0.

[Budro999]

The numbers for 1745 UTC are still T1.0/1.0.

That's a shame, considering that I think the number should be higher. TD 27 had classifications of 2.5 when it looked like crap, and this system is still 1.0 even though it looks leaps and bounds better. If only we could have recon down there today to tell us what exactly is going on.

[wxman57]

The numbers for 1745 UTC are still T1.0/1.0.

That's a shame, considering that I think the number should be higher. TD 27 had classifications of 2.5 when it looked like crap, and this system is still 1.0 even though it looks leaps and bounds better. If only we could have recon down there today to tell us what exactly is going on.

Dvorak is based more on convective banding than the location of an LLC. For TD 27, the Dvorak estimate was too high because it assumed that there was an LLC beneath the heavy convection - there wasn't. For Invest 93L, the convection isn't as strong as with TD 27, but the lower-level circulation is better-defined. Thus, the lower Dvorak number for Invest 93L than for TD 27.

[mike815]

Yeah tru it looks good. Still the main question is will it run out of time?

[P.K.]

ABNT20 KNHC 162217
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EST WED NOV 16 2005

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE IN ASSOCIATION WITH A BROAD AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED 100 MILES OR SO OFF THE COAST OF
NICARAGUA. ALTHOUGH UPPER-LEVEL WINDS CONTINUE TO BE FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT...THE SYSTEM HAS NOT BECOME ANY BETTER ORGANIZED THIS
AFTERNOON. THE LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND
IS LIKELY TO MOVE INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA BEFORE SIGNIFICANT
DEVELOPMENT CAN OCCUR. REGARDLESS OF WHETHER OR NOT A TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMS IN THIS AREA...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS LIKELY OVER
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA...PARTICULARLY OVER NICARAGUA AND
HONDURAS...DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THESE RAINS COULD
PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WILL INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM ON
THURSDAY...IF NECESSARY.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

[dixiebreeze]

Interesting plot map for 93:

http://weather.net-waves.com/model.php

[mike815]

yeah that is interesting.

[Brent]

Interesting plot map for 93:

http://weather.net-waves.com/model.php

It won't survive those mountains in Honduras...

Also it has 19/27 kt sustained winds at Day 5...

[mike815]

1006 mb low pressure center is in the far southwestern
Caribbean Sea near 12n81w. It has been drifting westward during
the last 24 hours. It is possible that this low center may
develop into a tropical cyclone during the next 36 hours. This
low center has become better organized since yesterday. Upper
level winds are favorable for development while the system
remains over water...and it is possible that a tropical
depression may form during the next day or so. Locally heavy
rainfall is likely in sections of Central America from Panama to
Honduras during the next couple of days...and these rains may
produce life-threatening flash floods and mud slides...
regardless of whether or not a tropical cyclone forms in this
area. An Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft is
scheduled to investigate the system on Thursday at 1800 UTC.
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is over a large
area from 12n-18n between 76w-86w. Well it has a shot

[cycloneye]

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST 93L

INITIAL TIME 18Z NOV 16

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 11.8 81.2 300./ 6.0
6 12.1 81.3 339./ 3.3
12 12.0 81.7 261./ 4.5
18 12.1 81.7 15./ 1.1
24 13.3 81.9 352./12.0
30 13.5 82.4 289./ 5.4
36 14.0 82.9 317./ 7.3
42 14.4 83.5 303./ 7.2
48 14.9 84.2 309./ 8.2
54 14.9 84.9 271./ 7.2
60 14.6 85.4 233./ 5.8
66 14.2 85.2 158./ 4.0
72 14.3 84.8 80./ 4.5
78 14.5 84.5 57./ 3.0
84 14.6 84.1 66./ 4.0
90 15.1 83.9 26./ 5.4
96 16.1 83.7 9./10.3
102 17.1 83.7 2./ 9.6
108 17.8 83.0 47./ 9.5
114 18.3 82.1 59./ 9.8
120 19.2 80.6 59./17.2
126 20.5 78.9 54./20.2



18z GFDL.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST (AL932005) ON 20051117 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
051117 0000 051117 1200 051118 0000 051118 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 12.2N 82.0W 12.9N 83.5W 13.4N 84.9W 13.9N 86.0W
BAMM 12.2N 82.0W 12.9N 83.1W 13.4N 84.2W 13.9N 85.0W
A98E 12.2N 82.0W 12.7N 83.4W 12.8N 84.9W 12.7N 86.5W
LBAR 12.2N 82.0W 13.0N 83.9W 13.9N 85.3W 14.7N 86.5W
SHIP 25KTS 31KTS 37KTS 43KTS
DSHP 25KTS 31KTS 28KTS 27KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
051119 0000 051120 0000 051121 0000 051122 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 14.4N 86.7W 15.8N 87.0W 18.7N 85.4W 25.0N 74.3W
BAMM 14.5N 85.5W 15.2N 85.5W 15.9N 85.4W 16.6N 82.9W
A98E 12.9N 87.9W 13.0N 90.6W 13.5N 93.0W 14.5N 94.4W
LBAR 15.6N 87.2W 17.7N 87.4W 20.9N 85.5W 27.0N 78.2W
SHIP 47KTS 47KTS 36KTS 21KTS
DSHP 27KTS 27KTS 28KTS 0KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 12.2N LONCUR = 82.0W DIRCUR = 295DEG SPDCUR = 7KT
LATM12 = 11.6N LONM12 = 80.6W DIRM12 = 299DEG SPDM12 = 6KT
LATM24 = 11.0N LONM24 = 79.5W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 90NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1005MB OUTPRS = 1009MB OUTRAD = 175NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM



00:00z BAM Models.

[jusforsean]

hey: When i try to pull up the map plot for 93 i get an empty square????? Where can I see this??? Thanks

[brunota2003]

hey: When i try to pull up the map plot for 93 i get an empty square????? Where can I see this??? Thanks

http://weather.net-waves.com/modelplot.htm

[cycloneye]

hey: When i try to pull up the map plot for 93 i get an empty square????? Where can I see this??? Thanks

http://weather.net-waves.com/modelplot.htm

Link to model plots.

Graphic of 00:00z models.