Will we ever see a season like 2005 again?

[JTD]

And don't forget the scale of what 2005 did. The hurricanes killed thousands of people, 3 successive hurricanes each outdid themselves in terms of setting minimal central pressure records, the U.S. had the most number of majors making landfall in one season.

There's no guarantee that a season with the same number of storms as this year will break those above records. (Hopefully it doesn't of course )

2005 is unique.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

In terms of storm intensity- very likley IMO given
ridge feedback mechanisms and a global atmospheric warming

As for frequency..that remains to be determined...

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

THE FOLLOWING IS NOT OFFICIAL AND IS NOT ENDORSED
BY STORM2K. IT IS THE OPINION OF THE POSTER AND MAY NOT
BE BACKED BY SOUND METEOROLOGICAL DATA...PLEASE SEE
NHC FOR OFFICIAL INFO...


ASSUMING NO EL NINO SETS UP; FOR NON-EL NINO YEARS ONLY:
SSTs to remain high...More high pressure and less shear
due to hotter ssts and hotter temps promoting more
sinking air, the sinking air sets up as high pressure to
reduce shear...and hotter temps means the hot ridges
last well into late into the season with September-type
ridging likely in Oct/November of 2006 or a later year,
thus reducing shear and aiding in temperature gradient
contrast with lower basin pressures in Caribbean/GOM
which meteorologically speaking all equates to more
favorable activity well throughout 2006 or a later year.
Due to the warm SSTs and the dual feedback mechanism
that takes place between warm SSTs and ridging I expect
an early start to the season once SSTs are warm enough
to galvanize/promote sinking high pressure that in turn
aids in hurricane formation by inherent shear reduction.
These same feedback mechanism factors will allow activity
to continue through the latter part of the season, probably
past the traditional end date for the season. This may include
Cape Verde systems appearing until much later than normal
given the aforementioned dual feedback mechanism
enhancement that would galvanize powerful manifestation
of Atlantic Ridging.
The SST facets of Enhanced Ridging feedback mechanisms
would promote the development and rapid intensification of
very potent systems. The number of very powerful hurricanes
will also be a lot higher than normal due to this fact. A heated,
more unstable atmosphere, contrasting more intensely in terms
of pressure gradient with a very powerful high pressure ridge
driven by the enhanced riding feedback mechanism, along with
additional moisture content threshold increases and subsequent
rainfall intensity increases will help to drive more powerful
storms. Intense convection due to enhanced heat content will
lead to more rapid pressure drops and subsequently much
stronger storms.

Bottom Line: 2006 and/or a later year will likely be VERY ACTIVE/RECORD ACTIVE

SSTs = Sea Surface Temperatures... the higher the SSTs = the more numerous the hurricanes.
Shear = a force in the atmosphere that rips apart hurricanes.

IMO higher ssts would enhance ridge feedback mechanisms and thus
reduce shear, so higher ssts and reduced shear would allow for a
greater proportion of intense hurricanes. I am willing to hypothesize,
since these cycle shifts are quite abrupt (1994/1995 active cycle
an abrupt shift) that IF global warming is really playing a role here,
its consequences and impacts on hurricanes would manifest
themselves abruptly and considerably. It will take a few more
years of observation, inference, and analysis to truly ascertain
as to whether this is the case in the Atlantic Basin. It is important
to note, however, that the fact that other basins have not seen this
type of 2005-Atlantic ridiculously excessive activity at this point in time
should not lend itself to a refutation of global warming's impacts
for the future. IF global warming is to verify, its manifestations would
appear abruptly in other basins, not necessarily gradually. In the year
X for example, other basins may be quiet, but we cannot rule out
the possibility that X+1 or X+2 or X+3 years may evince manifestations
of an abrupt and sudden increase in storm activity and/or intensity that
could be precipitated by global warming.

Also consider that the record-shattering 2005 season has occurred
even with unfavorable conditions in the Cape Verde region, preventing
Cape Verde long-trackers. Imagine a year like 2005 without the
unfavorable Cape Verde conditions . We have had a
record season in almost every way, shattering almost every
record, despite heavy shear, dry air or other
unfavorable conditions in the eastern Atlantic. Although many
waves were tenacious enough to move further west and
develop despite these conditions, other waves were ripped apart.
Imagine if those other waves had developed. 2005's numbers
would have been even more mind-shocking.

Also note that many of the tropical waves this year have been
quite a bit more tenacious than waves in many previous
active years. It's almost as if some other force is strongly driving
these waves to persist despite heavy shear, dry air or other
unfavorable conditions.

More CO-2 = Warmer Global Temps = Warmer SSTs = Stronger
Hurricanes = Stronger Sinking Air Ridges (due to feedback
mechanisms) that reduce shear = More favorable environment
for hurricane formation and intensification

[DoctorHurricane2003]

SSTAs are on a downward trend right now. Let's wait a few more months before declaring the SSTs will be way up there.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

SSTAs are on a downward trend right now. Let's wait a few more months before declaring the SSTs will be way up there.

Naturally they are on a downward trend right now as we approach
winter...
I make this declaration early but whether am I right or wrong
remains to be seen...

[DoctorHurricane2003]

Um SSTs are NOT SSTAs. SSTAs are departure from the average SST for a month. Going from Summer to Winter to Summer will NOT affect the SSTA.

[x-y-no]

SSTAs are on a downward trend right now. Let's wait a few more months before declaring the SSTs will be way up there.

Just took a look comparing the current SSTAs with the same time last year ...

A couple of things jump out right away.

Equatorial EPAC is a fair bit cooler - almost looks like verging on a la nina, but probably doesn't qualify.

Tropical East Atlantic is also cooler than last year, although still above normal.

OTOH, the Atlantic is warmer off the eastern seaboard, and the north central Pacific is also significantly warmer.

[MGC]

Anything is possible. I didn't think 2005 would beat 1933 but it did....MGC

[quandary]

I thought 2004 would never be overtaken, muchless in one year.
Will we see 3 sub 905mb beasts next year? I hope not or, Barrow Alaska here I come!!!!1

2004 wasn't a terrifying year in terms of storm formation. The only things were we had a number of long-trackers and a number of major landfalls, producing a huge about of Tropcial Cyclone Activity and a lot of damage

[quandary]

2005 is the everything year. It has shown me, at least, everything that there is to see about hurricanes... a subtropical depression, a semi-cold core hurricane (Vince), copious numbers of storms, intense hurricanes, including the most powerful storm of all time and the most destructive storm of all time. There's really just nothing left to see.

Now, will we see another year like 2005 again? Maybe, but I would rather put my money on no. Did we expect that a season would be 1933, probably not, but 2005 not only beat 2003, it beat the number of tropical cyclones from 1933 (shared with 2003 and 1995) by 6! That's a whole 30% or half a season. 2005 has run laps around the previously most active years, so how is another season going to run laps around 2005?

[Jim Hughes]

Um SSTs are NOT SSTAs. SSTAs are departure from the average SST for a month. Going from Summer to Winter to Summer will NOT affect the SSTA.

That is not always necessarily true. The NAO, like many atmospheric teleconnections, can get locked in patterns from year to year like they have a memory. I believe Hurrel or Wallace wrote about this phenomenon some years back.

I understand where you were coming from but if the pattern is for the anomaly to wax and wane and this lines up with certain seasons then one might be able to say that an anomaly will be present at such and such time way in advance.


Jim

[CHRISTY]

my vote is YES will see more hurrricanes then usually in 2006 i believe this is a sign of things to come because we are in a active hurricane cycle which may last 10 -15 years of more increased activity ... i hope come next year people take those hurricane warnings seriously and not focus on that dotted line because a hurricane is not a point but a large area which alot people can get affected another words a hurricane doesnt have to come over your house in order for you to be affected, example hurricane WILMA affected many communitys from miami dade ,broward palm beach etc .. so in my case next year if my area is under a hurricane warning iam gonna act like the eye is headed right towards to my area i think its better being ready then cought of card because one small change of direction can mean everything i learned this lesson with katrina which was expected to move onshore much further north and then suddenly took a turn south a came threw miami dade county so hopefully next will be a little more less active ,but something tells me that 2005 was sign of more very active seasons to come, so 2006 i'll be waiting!

[DoctorHurricane2003]

Okay Jim, but what I meant is that changing seasons by itself does not alter the SSTAs to any significant degree

[Jim Cantore]

Oh we will

maybe 2006?

[fasterdisaster]

So? SSTAs decreased at the end of 2004, and we know how much that affected our season.

[mike815]

2006 will be abouve normal i think. Maybe not as bad as this yr but i said that after 2004. Incredible doesnt evcen begin to say how bad this season was and it still isnt over quite yet.