Invest 93L Caribbean,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[tampaflwx]

whoa. this thing suddenly became uber organized, and it's huge and has lots of deep convection!

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

[tampaflwx]

GFDL has a 119kt (major) hurricane forming in the next 5 days heading northeast over cuba and into the atlantic. possible future Gamma is looking good right now. this all seems a distinct possibility.

[Cookiely]

The discussion below has me totally confused. Can someone enlighten me. First it says its going inland and will not develope. then it says if it stays offshore it could develope. Is it going inland and then do a loop and come back toward cuba? It certainly is looking better organized this morning.
A 1004 MB LOW IS CENTERED IN THE FAR SW CARIBBEAN ALONG THE
COAST OF NICARAGUA NEAR 12N83W. THIS BROAD LOW IS DRIFTING
WESTWARD WHICH WILL TAKE IT INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA BEFORE
IT CAN DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE. HOWEVER...EVEN WITHOUT
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT THIS SYSTEM IS BRINGING HEAVY RAINS TO
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA WHICH COULD PRODUCE FLASH FLOODS AND
MUD SLIDES ESPECIALLY TO NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS. THERE IS IS
STILL A POSSIBILITY OF FURTHER DEVELOPMENT IF THE LOW LEVEL
CENTER REMAINS OFFSHORE. SCATTERED/NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS
FROM 15N-17.5N BETWEEN 78.5W-83.5W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA FROM 12N-18N
BETWEEN 80W-89W.

[cycloneye]

ABNT20 KNHC 171007
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 AM EST THU NOV 17 2005

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE IN ASSOCIATION WITH A BROAD AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR THE COAST OF NICARAGUA. THE LOW IS
LIKELY TO MOVE INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA BEFORE SIGNIFICANT
DEVELOPMENT CAN OCCUR. REGARDLESS OF WHETHER OR NOT A TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMS IN THIS AREA...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS LIKELY OVER
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA...PARTICULARLY OVER NICARAGUA AND
HONDURAS...DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THESE RAINS COULD
PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WILL INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM ON
THURSDAY...IF NECESSARY.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
FRIDAY.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN



5:30 AM TWO

[CHRISTY]

looks to me likes its lifting to the north a bit and getting better organized....it may stay ofshore!

[Anonymous]

ABNT20 KNHC 171007
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 AM EST THU NOV 17 2005

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE IN ASSOCIATION WITH A BROAD AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR THE COAST OF NICARAGUA. THE LOW IS
LIKELY TO MOVE INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA BEFORE SIGNIFICANT
DEVELOPMENT CAN OCCUR. REGARDLESS OF WHETHER OR NOT A TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMS IN THIS AREA...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS LIKELY OVER
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA...PARTICULARLY OVER NICARAGUA AND
HONDURAS...DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THESE RAINS COULD
PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WILL INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM ON
THURSDAY...IF NECESSARY.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
FRIDAY.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN



5:30 AM TWO

Notice how it still says "ON THURSDAY" rather than "TODAY"....looks like a copy/paste job almost.

[cycloneye]

ABNT20 KNHC 171007
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 AM EST THU NOV 17 2005

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE IN ASSOCIATION WITH A BROAD AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR THE COAST OF NICARAGUA. THE LOW IS
LIKELY TO MOVE INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA BEFORE SIGNIFICANT
DEVELOPMENT CAN OCCUR. REGARDLESS OF WHETHER OR NOT A TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMS IN THIS AREA...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS LIKELY OVER
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA...PARTICULARLY OVER NICARAGUA AND
HONDURAS...DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THESE RAINS COULD
PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WILL INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM ON
THURSDAY...IF NECESSARY.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
FRIDAY.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN



5:30 AM TWO

Notice how it still says "ON THURSDAY" rather than "TODAY"....looks like a copy/paste job almost.

Oh yes I didn't noticed that.

[cycloneye]

A 1005 MB LOW IS CENTERED IN THE FAR SW CARIBBEAN ALONG THE
COAST OF NICARAGUA NEAR 12N83W. THIS BROAD LOW IS SLOWLY
DRIFTING WESTWARD WHICH WILL TAKE IT INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA
BEFORE IT CAN DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE. HOWEVER...EVEN
WITHOUT FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...HEAVY RAINS TO
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA COULD PRODUCE FLASH FLOODS AND MUD
SLIDES ESPECIALLY TO NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS. THERE IS IS STILL A
POSSIBILITY OF FURTHER DEVELOPMENT IF THE LOW LEVEL CENTER
REMAINS OFFSHORE. SCATTERED/NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM
16N-19N BETWEEN 80W-83W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION
COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA FROM 13.5N-20N BETWEEN 79W-85W

7 PM Discussion.

[wxman57]

GFDL has a 119kt (major) hurricane forming in the next 5 days heading northeast over cuba and into the atlantic. possible future Gamma is looking good right now. this all seems a distinct possibility.

Yeah, just like the GFDL had TD 27 as a major hurricane by now. That big circular blob of convection caught my eye this morning. However, the lower-level circulation center has moved inland into Nicaragua. It's certainly possible for a center to redevelop beneath the convection, though. Should be stopped in its tracks tomorrow as the strong cold front reaches the NW Caribbean. Increasing shear and an infusion of drier air should hinder development from then on. Could bring heavy rain to central to eastern Cuba and the DR as it zips NE up the front this weekend.

[mike815]

Wow this system sure looks good this morning. Really looks promising maybe it will develope after all. And it sure does look like a copy and past job.

[DESTRUCTION5]

This may have a chance today looks like land interaction is becoming less today as it is moving in a NW direction but that front coming down looks like a dozie....This thing is going to get blown off to the ENE so fast its going to make your head spin..

[Windtalker1]

This may have a chance today looks like land interaction is becoming less today as it is moving in a NW direction but that front coming down looks like a dozie....This thing is going to get blown off to the ENE so fast its going to make your head spin..

Local Mets in in S FL state the cold front coming down is going to fizzle as it reaches S FL so I think this one will not impact this system as you suggest. There is a stronger front expected to come down by Tuesday and depending where this system ends up, will decide which direction it will go.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST (AL932005) ON 20051117 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
051117 1200 051118 0000 051118 1200 051119 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 12.8N 83.2W 13.4N 84.8W 14.0N 86.1W 14.7N 87.2W
BAMM 12.8N 83.2W 13.2N 84.5W 13.6N 85.6W 14.0N 86.6W
A98E 12.8N 83.2W 13.3N 84.6W 13.4N 85.9W 13.6N 87.3W
LBAR 12.8N 83.2W 13.5N 85.0W 14.5N 86.5W 15.7N 87.8W
SHIP 25KTS 28KTS 32KTS 35KTS
DSHP 25KTS 25KTS 26KTS 27KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
051119 1200 051120 1200 051121 1200 051122 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 15.5N 87.9W 18.6N 87.7W 24.9N 79.6W 33.0N 59.8W
BAMM 14.3N 87.3W 14.9N 88.4W 15.0N 89.4W 15.2N 90.0W
A98E 14.2N 88.4W 15.2N 90.5W 16.7N 91.3W 18.5N 89.5W
LBAR 17.3N 88.4W 21.7N 87.6W 30.2N 79.5W 38.7N 57.8W
SHIP 36KTS 33KTS 23KTS 0KTS
DSHP 27KTS 27KTS 27KTS 0KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 12.8N LONCUR = 83.2W DIRCUR = 295DEG SPDCUR = 7KT
LATM12 = 12.2N LONM12 = 82.0W DIRM12 = 294DEG SPDM12 = 7KT
LATM24 = 11.6N LONM24 = 80.6W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 90NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1004MB OUTPRS = 1009MB OUTRAD = 175NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM


12:00z Models.

[DESTRUCTION5]

This may have a chance today looks like land interaction is becoming less today as it is moving in a NW direction but that front coming down looks like a dozie....This thing is going to get blown off to the ENE so fast its going to make your head spin..

Local Mets in in S FL state the cold front coming down is going to fizzle as it reaches S FL so I think this one will not impact this system as you suggest. There is a stronger front expected to come down by Tuesday and depending where this system ends up, will decide which direction it will go.

Make that Sunday...The 3rd Front will be here Tuesday...

[Windtalker1]

This may have a chance today looks like land interaction is becoming less today as it is moving in a NW direction but that front coming down looks like a dozie....This thing is going to get blown off to the ENE so fast its going to make your head spin..

Local Mets in in S FL state the cold front coming down is going to fizzle as it reaches S FL so I think this one will not impact this system as you suggest. There is a stronger front expected to come down by Tuesday and depending where this system ends up, will decide which direction it will go.

Make that Sunday...The 3rd Front will be here Tuesday...

That 2nd front won't even spit out a drop of rain, not strong at all either. The main player will be Tuesday.

[boca]

Looks like S FL could get rain out of this system if it doesn't turn NE on time.If it continues moving NW today that will put the system directly S or SW of FL then if it turned NNE we would get rain but not necessarily from a developed system just a rain maker.

[boca]

Looks like well get rain from this system,but just a rain maker.



http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

[stormernie]

Looks like a new low (llc) has develop from TD 27 near 16 N 83W. It is moving NW at about 10-15 mph.

[boca]

Stormernie I saw that it still moving NW I wonder if it will pull a Wilma type track.

[cjrciadt]

wow I thought 93 could be poof by now, maybe TD 28 later today?