Overall the guidance seems to be coming in on a solution of some slow development…the GFDL wants to bring this on a Wilma path as a Cat 1 hurricane…this seems a bit overdone as most of the strengthening happens in the Gulf between 72 and 84 hours in the model.
However…the idea of the system getting yanked up and through Florida as a weaker tropical storm seems more plausible…but the big story may be the resulting system coming into the east coast by Tuesday/Wednesday of next week.
I’m not going to even speculate on the impact down the road yet…we’ve seen model agreement on a phasing system already this season…but the prospects of this crossing Florida as a named system…most likely a weak to moderate tropical storm…seems to be the most likely option early on.
MW
TD 27,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread
Moderator: S2k Moderators
I think that's why some of us down here are a little worried. Even a strong tropical storm could cause problems to us here in south florida. Most people don't even have everything cleaned up from Wilma yet. 60-70mph winds could play havoc with that. 
Last edited by Damar91 on Fri Nov 18, 2005 10:06 am, edited 1 time in total.
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tracyswfla
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DESTRUCTION5
- Category 5
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- Location: Stuart, FL
MWatkins wrote:Overall the guidance seems to be coming in on a solution of some slow development…the GFDL wants to bring this on a Wilma path as a Cat 1 hurricane…this seems a bit overdone as most of the strengthening happens in the Gulf between 72 and 84 hours in the model.
However…the idea of the system getting yanked up and through Florida as a weaker tropical storm seems more plausible…but the big story may be the resulting system coming into the east coast by Tuesday/Wednesday of next week.
I’m not going to even speculate on the impact down the road yet…we’ve seen model agreement on a phasing system already this season…but the prospects of this crossing Florida as a named system…most likely a weak to moderate tropical storm…seems to be the most likely option early on.
MW
Are you kidding me MW? Even still with this Shortwave coming?
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HURAKAN
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 46086
- Age: 38
- Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
- Location: Key West, FL
- Contact:
TWO 11:30 AM:
satellite imagery this morning shows that the remnants of Tropical
Depression Twenty-Seven are becoming better organized near the
northern coast of Honduras just east of roatan island. If current
trends continue...a tropical depression or tropical storm could form
later today. If advisories are re-initiated...watches and warnings
may be required for portions of the northwestern Caribbean coast
and the adjacent islands...and interests in this area should
monitor the progress of this system. Strong winds are already
occurring over the northwestern Caribbean Sea to the north of the
system...and additional information on this can be found in high
seas forecasts issued by the TPC/Tropical Analysis and Forecast
Branch under AWIPS header miahsfat2 and under WMO header fznt02
knhc.
Even if no additional development occurs...heavy rains will be
possible across portions of Honduras...Belize...the Cayman
Islands...western Cuba...and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico.
These rains could cause life-threatening flash floods and
mudslides.
An Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft is currently enroute
to investigate the system.
satellite imagery this morning shows that the remnants of Tropical
Depression Twenty-Seven are becoming better organized near the
northern coast of Honduras just east of roatan island. If current
trends continue...a tropical depression or tropical storm could form
later today. If advisories are re-initiated...watches and warnings
may be required for portions of the northwestern Caribbean coast
and the adjacent islands...and interests in this area should
monitor the progress of this system. Strong winds are already
occurring over the northwestern Caribbean Sea to the north of the
system...and additional information on this can be found in high
seas forecasts issued by the TPC/Tropical Analysis and Forecast
Branch under AWIPS header miahsfat2 and under WMO header fznt02
knhc.
Even if no additional development occurs...heavy rains will be
possible across portions of Honduras...Belize...the Cayman
Islands...western Cuba...and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico.
These rains could cause life-threatening flash floods and
mudslides.
An Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft is currently enroute
to investigate the system.
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This may actually become Gamma today. The crazy season of 2005 continues.
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The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Current Weather at Roatan, Honduras
Temperature
74.4°F
Humidity
95%
Dewpoint
72.9°F
Wind
NE at 43.0 mph
Barometer
29.686 in & Steady
Today's Rain
0.34 in
Rain Rate
0.23 in/hr
Storm Total
3.81 in
Monthly Rain
9.20 in
Yearly Rain
51.36 in
Wind Chill
67.3°F
THW Index
70.6°F
Heat Index
77.7°F
Today's Highs/Lows
High Temperature
Low Temperature
79.6°F at 12:50a
73.2°F at 9:46a
High Humidity
Low Humidity
95% at 10:02a
77% at 12:51a
High Dewpoint
Low Dewpoint
75.0°F at 3:34a
71.0°F at 9:41a
High Wind Speed
54.0 mph at 9:40a
High Barometer
Low Barometer
29.712 in at 8:29a
29.634 in at 3:44a
High Rain Rate
1.06 in/hr at 10:02a
Low Wind Chill
72.0°F at 9:46a
High Heat Index
84.0°F at 12:08
http://63.245.92.231/Current/Current_custom.htm
Temperature
74.4°F
Humidity
95%
Dewpoint
72.9°F
Wind
NE at 43.0 mph
Barometer
29.686 in & Steady
Today's Rain
0.34 in
Rain Rate
0.23 in/hr
Storm Total
3.81 in
Monthly Rain
9.20 in
Yearly Rain
51.36 in
Wind Chill
67.3°F
THW Index
70.6°F
Heat Index
77.7°F
Today's Highs/Lows
High Temperature
Low Temperature
79.6°F at 12:50a
73.2°F at 9:46a
High Humidity
Low Humidity
95% at 10:02a
77% at 12:51a
High Dewpoint
Low Dewpoint
75.0°F at 3:34a
71.0°F at 9:41a
High Wind Speed
54.0 mph at 9:40a
High Barometer
Low Barometer
29.712 in at 8:29a
29.634 in at 3:44a
High Rain Rate
1.06 in/hr at 10:02a
Low Wind Chill
72.0°F at 9:46a
High Heat Index
84.0°F at 12:08
http://63.245.92.231/Current/Current_custom.htm
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x-y-no
- Category 5
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- Location: Fort Lauderdale, FL
12Z GFS run continues the trend of forecasting very hostile shear conditions over this thing in the 2 to 3 day timeframe - tearing it apart completely.
This scenario seems fairly likely to me, although it may be a bit overdriven. I do think this has a good chance to become Gamma today, and while I don't think it gets all the way to SFL as a tropical system, it may well persist somewhat better than the GFS says.
This scenario seems fairly likely to me, although it may be a bit overdriven. I do think this has a good chance to become Gamma today, and while I don't think it gets all the way to SFL as a tropical system, it may well persist somewhat better than the GFS says.
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SouthFloridawx
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cycloneye
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ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-SE 27L
INITIAL TIME 12Z NOV 18
DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.
FORECAST STORM POSITION
HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)
0 16.5 85.5 290./ 6.0
6 16.5 85.7 256./ 2.0
12 16.4 86.1 262./ 4.0
18 16.3 86.2 254./ 1.8
24 16.5 86.8 286./ 5.0
30 16.8 87.2 307./ 5.0
36 17.2 87.6 314./ 5.6
42 17.9 87.7 352./ 7.2
48 18.9 87.8 352./10.2
54 19.8 87.9 354./ 9.1
60 20.6 87.6 20./ 8.1
66 21.4 86.9 43./11.0
72 22.6 85.6 46./16.2
78 24.1 83.6 55./24.3
84 26.0 81.0 54./29.9
90 28.6 78.3 46./35.4
96 32.4 75.1 40./47.1
12z GFDL dissipates it at 96 hours.
NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-SE 27L
INITIAL TIME 12Z NOV 18
DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.
FORECAST STORM POSITION
HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)
0 16.5 85.5 290./ 6.0
6 16.5 85.7 256./ 2.0
12 16.4 86.1 262./ 4.0
18 16.3 86.2 254./ 1.8
24 16.5 86.8 286./ 5.0
30 16.8 87.2 307./ 5.0
36 17.2 87.6 314./ 5.6
42 17.9 87.7 352./ 7.2
48 18.9 87.8 352./10.2
54 19.8 87.9 354./ 9.1
60 20.6 87.6 20./ 8.1
66 21.4 86.9 43./11.0
72 22.6 85.6 46./16.2
78 24.1 83.6 55./24.3
84 26.0 81.0 54./29.9
90 28.6 78.3 46./35.4
96 32.4 75.1 40./47.1
12z GFDL dissipates it at 96 hours.
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Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
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DESTRUCTION5
- Category 5
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- Age: 43
- Joined: Wed Sep 03, 2003 11:25 am
- Location: Stuart, FL
cycloneye wrote:ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-SE 27L
INITIAL TIME 12Z NOV 18
DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.
FORECAST STORM POSITION
HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)
0 16.5 85.5 290./ 6.0
6 16.5 85.7 256./ 2.0
12 16.4 86.1 262./ 4.0
18 16.3 86.2 254./ 1.8
24 16.5 86.8 286./ 5.0
30 16.8 87.2 307./ 5.0
36 17.2 87.6 314./ 5.6
42 17.9 87.7 352./ 7.2
48 18.9 87.8 352./10.2
54 19.8 87.9 354./ 9.1
60 20.6 87.6 20./ 8.1
66 21.4 86.9 43./11.0
72 22.6 85.6 46./16.2
78 24.1 83.6 55./24.3
84 26.0 81.0 54./29.9
90 28.6 78.3 46./35.4
96 32.4 75.1 40./47.1
12z GFDL dissipates it at 96 hours.
Called a Depression too..
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Blown Away
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