TD/TS Gamma Recon Discussion

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senorpepr
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#61 Postby senorpepr » Fri Nov 18, 2005 11:18 am

HURAKAN wrote:Luis, do you know in this mission by how much do we have to divide to find the real winds?

.70, .80, 90.


It depends on how high they are flying at. Definately not 90% as they won't be flying at 10,000ft. If they go in at 5,000ft: 80%. If they go in around 1,500ft: 70%.
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#62 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Nov 18, 2005 11:20 am

senorpepr wrote:
HURAKAN wrote:Luis, do you know in this mission by how much do we have to divide to find the real winds?

.70, .80, 90.


It depends on how high they are flying at. Definately not 90% as they won't be flying at 10,000ft. If they go in at 5,000ft: 80%. If they go in around 1,500ft: 70%.


Why if they go closer to the surface you have to reduce more?
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#63 Postby x-y-no » Fri Nov 18, 2005 11:31 am

senorpepr wrote:
HURAKAN wrote:Luis, do you know in this mission by how much do we have to divide to find the real winds?

.70, .80, 90.


It depends on how high they are flying at. Definately not 90% as they won't be flying at 10,000ft. If they go in at 5,000ft: 80%. If they go in around 1,500ft: 70%.


Given the weakness of the system , I'm expecting them to go at 1,500 today.
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#64 Postby P.K. » Fri Nov 18, 2005 11:38 am

The way I understand this if they are flying at 300m like they have done the last couple of days then they are within the convective mixed layer of the boundary layer. Within the surface layer, roughly 10% of the boundary layer, there is a log-log relationship of winds vs height, above this where it is well mixed they stay fairly constant. This then means a 70% reduction is needed to get to 10m winds.

If they flying in at 1,500m then they are getting towards the top of the boundary layer, but as this is so far south compared to here it will likely be in the boundary layer. At this level there wil be an effect from the entrainment heat flux. Above the inversion at the top of the boundary layer winds drops with with height and so if they are flying at 3km the reduction to surface winds will be less.

This may be wrong, but it makes sense to me. :lol:
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#65 Postby x-y-no » Fri Nov 18, 2005 11:39 am

HURAKAN wrote:
senorpepr wrote:
HURAKAN wrote:Luis, do you know in this mission by how much do we have to divide to find the real winds?

.70, .80, 90.


It depends on how high they are flying at. Definately not 90% as they won't be flying at 10,000ft. If they go in at 5,000ft: 80%. If they go in around 1,500ft: 70%.


Why if they go closer to the surface you have to reduce more?


Tropical cyclones have a wind profile with the peak winds at approx. 500 meters, declining sharply below that level, more gradually above that level.
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#66 Postby cycloneye » Fri Nov 18, 2005 11:43 am

We will know pretty soon at what level they will fly as in less than an hour the decending will commense.
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#67 Postby cycloneye » Fri Nov 18, 2005 11:47 am

UZNT13 KNHC 181617
XXAA 68164 99228 70866 08126 99018 25256 02516 00155 23649 03517
92830 17835 03013 85549 15863 11511 70177 09080 10003 50587 06586
36002 40758 16372 23520 88999 77999
31313 09608 81558
61616 AF309 02JJA INVEST OB 04
62626 SPL 2276N08666W 1607 MBL WND 03017 AEV 20507 DLM WND 05008
017416 WL150 02517 084 =
XXBB 68168 99228 70866 08126 00018 25256 11887 15227 22850 15863
33826 15472 44814 15070 55800 14060 66766 12062 77742 11063 88718
09263 99708 09475 11692 08678 22677 07075 33663 05260 44618 01660
55607 01275 66595 00685 77523 04376 88485 08578 99479 09358 11473
09957 22451 11960 33433 13963 44418 14766 55404 15372 66393 18171
21212 00018 02516 11957 03517 22885 03010 33875 05508 44860 11010
55850 11511 66788 04512 77755 05512 88485 00000 99477 19510 11418
29023 22416 24019 33393 23021
31313 09608 81558
61616 AF309 02JJA INVEST OB 04
62626 SPL 2276N08666W 1607 MBL WND 03017 AEV 20507 DLM WND 05008
017416 WL150 02517 084 =



The above is a dropsonde.I dont know how to decode these so help is needed here. :)
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#68 Postby P.K. » Fri Nov 18, 2005 11:51 am

22.8N 86.6W, 1018hPa (I think) I haven't decoded any of these for a while though.
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#69 Postby cycloneye » Fri Nov 18, 2005 11:53 am

Plane starts to decend so we will know at what level they will fly around the system.
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#70 Postby P.K. » Fri Nov 18, 2005 12:01 pm

300m then so it will be a 70% reduction.
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#71 Postby SouthFloridawx » Fri Nov 18, 2005 12:04 pm

DROPSONDE CODE
UZPA13 PGTW 061851
XXAA 56185 99251 70786 08158 99016 26444 18501 00140 26247 07004
XXAA YYGGId 99LaLaLa QcLoLoLoLo MMMUlaUlo 99PoPoPo ToToToDoDo dodofofofo P1P1h1h1h1 T1T1T1D1D1 d1d1f1f1f1
ID DTG Lat Long Marsden Surface Data Standard Isobaric Surface

88100 52160 ///// 77200 09045 41210
88PnPnPn TnTnTnDnDn dndnfnfnfn 77PnPnPn dndnfnfnfn 4vbvbvava
Tropopause Data Max Wind Data

61616 AF968 0204A BONNIE OB 04
61616 AFXXX XXXXX XXXXX OB X KXXX
Mission Information

62626 RAINBAND SPL 2635N08996W LST WND 001 MBL WND 04010
62626
Nationally Developed Codes

XXBB 56188 99251 70786 08158 00016 26444 11005 25841
XXBB YYGG8 99LaLaLa QcLoLoLoLo MMMUlaUlo 00PoPoPo ToToToDoDo nonoPoPoPo ToToToDoDo
ID DTG Lat Long Marden SLP SL Temp Sig Lvl T/DPD

31313 09608 81828
31313 srrarasasa 8GGgg
Sounding Information

51515 10166 02050
51515 101XX 0PnPnPnPn
Additional Data Groups

61616 AF968 0204A BONNIE OB 04
61616 AFXXX XXXXX XXXXX OB X KXXX
Mission Information

62626 RAINBAND SPL 2635N08996W LST WND 001 MBL WND 04010
62626
Nationally Developed Codes
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#72 Postby SouthFloridawx » Fri Nov 18, 2005 12:05 pm

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#73 Postby cycloneye » Fri Nov 18, 2005 12:31 pm

Plane is now very close to where the center is.
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#74 Postby SWFLMom » Fri Nov 18, 2005 12:42 pm

P.K. wrote:300m then so it will be a 70% reduction.


Sorry for the newbie question, but does this mean that if the recons are reporting winds in the 30-35 range, we are looking and 21- 23.5 range?
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#75 Postby JtSmarts » Fri Nov 18, 2005 12:46 pm

SWFLMom wrote:
P.K. wrote:300m then so it will be a 70% reduction.


Sorry for the newbie question, but does this mean that if the recons are reporting winds in the 30-35 range, we are looking and 21- 23.5 range?


That's Correct.
45kt correlates to 31.5 which is about 36mph.
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#76 Postby cycloneye » Fri Nov 18, 2005 12:57 pm

Plane crossing the center.We should have a vortex message very shortly.
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#77 Postby Steve H. » Fri Nov 18, 2005 1:00 pm

They'll need to go another degree south if they wwant to cross the center IMO. The center is still right near or over the island.
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#78 Postby cycloneye » Fri Nov 18, 2005 1:05 pm

Plane now south of a center.Now they are looking to close it to then have a VDM.
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#79 Postby Damar91 » Fri Nov 18, 2005 1:08 pm

drum roll please, :band:
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#80 Postby superfly » Fri Nov 18, 2005 1:12 pm

Looks to me like they are too far east. The center on satellite looks like it's on the other side of 85W.
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