Gamma No Threat to FL

[Damar91]

Air force met,

It won't! You are correct. On to the next season.

[jkt21787]

boca_chris, why are you always so compelled to hype every little blob of showers as a tropical cyclone for South Florida? Its been so frustrating having to see these threads trying to scare Floridians needlessly.

Still no closed circulation. Still no tropical cyclone. Its going east of FL anyway, except for perhaps a couple of showers. Nothing to be concerned about, and certainly nothing to scare people over...

[DESTRUCTION5]

boca_chris, why are you always so compelled to hype every little blob of showers as a tropical cyclone for South Florida? Its been so frustrating having to see these threads trying to scare Floridians needlessly.

Still no closed circulation. Still no tropical cyclone. Its going east of FL anyway, except for perhaps a couple of showers. Nothing to be concerned about, and certainly nothing to scare people over...

In all due respect...Only one he would be scaring is us...And thats not hoing to happen...LOL..At least for me...

[Damar91]

Just out of curiosity, is there a forecast map that shows what the forecasted sheer will be?

[boca]

Because of the high shear whatever forms down there will likely move thru central Cuba and thru the Central Bahamas in my opinion. On satelite you can see the upper high cirrus clouds racing over Andros Island in the Bahamas.

[Windtalker1]

Boca_Chris I usually agree with you but this thing is starting to weaken and the cold cloud tops are warming.It might still head this way but as a normal nontropical low as it passes by us.

That... and it still doesn't have a closed circulation, so it's not even Gamma yet, and it's most favorable conditions are here very soon. If it doesn't become something by tomorrow then it's never going to be anything...

Right...and like I said earlier...if Arlene and Cindy couldn't do it in the good part of the season in OK conditions...how is this going to do it in mid-November right before Thanksgiving in smoe really hostile conditions.

I really do WISH someone would answer that questions for me. But...I have a feeling that I won't get an answer other than a model said it (which also called for it to be a Cat 3 a few days ago...which was also hosed).

With the season that we have had this year, it would not surprise me if things changed in 24 hours to support at least a Cat 1 or very strong TS...as mush as I admire you and your forcasts Air Force Met, nobody (not even the NHC) can say 100% that this "WILL NOT" be a strong TS or weak Cat 1 heading toward S Florida this early in the forcast.

[Brent]

Just out of curiosity, is there a forecast map that shows what the forecasted sheer will be?

Here's the shear now and it's only going to get worse.

[Brent]

With the season that we have had this year, it would not surprise me if things changed in 24 hours to support at least a Cat 1 or very strong TS...as mush as I admire you and your forcasts Air Force Met, nobody (not even the NHC) can say 100% that this "WILL NOT" be a strong TS or weak Cat 1 heading toward S Florida this early in the forcast.

Actually... yes. Look at the 70 kt shear over South Florida... it will be shredded to pieces. This is not September/October...

[DESTRUCTION5]

With the season that we have had this year, it would not surprise me if things changed in 24 hours to support at least a Cat 1 or very strong TS...as mush as I admire you and your forcasts Air Force Met, nobody (not even the NHC) can say 100% that this "WILL NOT" be a strong TS or weak Cat 1 heading toward S Florida this early in the forcast.

Actually... yes. Look at the 70 kt shear over South Florida... it will be shredded to pieces. This is not September/October...

I think SFL will be lucky to get a shower out of this period...

[Damar91]

Thanks Brent. That spells doom for our storm.

[Air Force Met]

With the season that we have had this year, it would not surprise me if things changed in 24 hours to support at least a Cat 1 or very strong TS...as mush as I admire you and your forcasts Air Force Met, nobody (not even the NHC) can say 100% that this "WILL NOT" be a strong TS or weak Cat 1 heading toward S Florida this early in the forcast.

There is a problem with that statement. It's not based on any available data. We could have had 50 storms and 10 Cat 5 hurricanes and it will not change the conditions that are there right now and teh forecast conditions over the next 3 days. Climo does not dictate the current conditions and it doesn't change the dataset that is right now. The data is the data and the data doesn't know what kind of season we have had. It doesn't work that way. An active season will have NO impact on a 90kt jet core dipping into Florida in 84 hours. None.

There is also another problem with this statement. This is not a middle/heart of the hurricane season intensity forecast. This is a late season...sheared system approaching the mid-lats with dry, stable air at the sfc...type of forecast. Where computer models lack in tropical forecasting ability...they make up for it in extra-tropical. This system could become a cat 1 and head towards Florida (not saying it will...but could) ...but will have it's head handed to it on a platter before it gets near there.

[Windtalker1]

I will have the CROW cooking instead of TURKEY for those that need it come next week

[Brent]

I will have the CROW cooking instead of TURKEY for those that need it come next week

You'll be cooking for yourself and boca_chris.

[Windtalker1]

I will have the CROW cooking instead of TURKEY for those that need it come next week

You'll be cooking for yourself and boca_chris.

Every year something happens to ruin my Thanksgiven...why won't this year be the same...I say the Hurricane Season is going to go out with a just to screw with me.

[wxman57]

I'm seeing pretty good signs of an LLC on the coast of Honduras near 16.1N/86.1W. That's where the recon plane is finding calm winds and a 1007 mb pressure. There are southwesterly winds to the south in Honduras on the hourly obs, but the center is too close to the coast, I think, for recon to fly into on the south side.

I think that there is enough evidence to call this "Gamma" shortly, unfortunately. Note that even the dymanic models (GFS, GFDL) are now indicating that eventually it may clip the southern Florida Peninsula. I think it's a good bet that the NHC track will move it across the southern tip fo Florida on Monday afternoon.

But as Airforce Met has been saying, the shear at will be tremendous by Sunday/Monday, not to mention all the lower-level dry air entrainment. So while Gamma could reach a peak intensity of 50 kts in the NW Caribbean in 24-48 hours, once it begins to accelerate NE toward western Cuba on Sunday it should be steadily weakening. By the time the "center" reaches south Florida, it may not be more than an elongated area of squalls displaced east of a low-level swirl.

Here's a current McIdas image with the location of the center plotted.

<img src="http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/gamma2.gif">

[Damar91]

Can we close this thread? It is obvious to most by now that there will not be a threat nor is it growing to Florida.

[SWFLMom]

CNN reports that TD 27 is now TS Gamma

[Praxus]

Don't think we actually need two threads discussing gamma; but whatever...

[Forecaster Colby]

Can we close this thread? It is obvious to most by now that there will not be a threat nor is it growing to Florida.

I think we have a crow taste-tester

[fci]

Can we close this thread? It is obvious to most by now that there will not be a threat nor is it growing to Florida.

I guess not..........