TD GAMMA,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

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TD GAMMA,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

#1 Postby cycloneye » Fri Nov 18, 2005 3:41 pm

Ok folks here it is.
Last edited by cycloneye on Sun Nov 20, 2005 7:13 am, edited 5 times in total.
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#2 Postby cjrciadt » Fri Nov 18, 2005 3:42 pm

Image
Image
Last edited by cjrciadt on Fri Nov 18, 2005 3:43 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#3 Postby brunota2003 » Fri Nov 18, 2005 3:43 pm

WE HAVE GAMMA!!! REMEMBER YOU HEARD IT HERE FIRST!!!
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#4 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Nov 18, 2005 3:44 pm

24TH!!!!
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#5 Postby jkt21787 » Fri Nov 18, 2005 3:44 pm

Let's just repost the forecast/advisory and shear maps before boca_chris starts calling for a major hurricane in FL...
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#6 Postby Damar91 » Fri Nov 18, 2005 3:44 pm

Do they really think it will survive all that sheer?
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#7 Postby Brent » Fri Nov 18, 2005 3:45 pm

GAMMA IS IN A RATHER HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT AT THIS TIME. SHEAR
ANALYSES FROM CIMSS AT THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN SHOW 15-25 KT OF
SHEAR ACROSS THE STORM...AND LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST THE SHEAR
TO INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE NEXT 72 HR. IN ADDITION...GAMMA
IS CLOSE TO A FRONTAL ZONE...AND THE FRONT WILL LIKELY BECOME
STRONGER AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES. THE GFDL MODEL CALLS
FOR GAMMA TO REACH 55 KT IN ABOUT 72 HR...WHILE THE SHIPS MODEL
BARELY STRENGTHENS IT DUE TO SHEAR. THE INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS
THE GFDL GUIDANCE AND CALL FOR A 55 KT INTENSITY IN 72 HR...
ALTHOUGH GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE SHEAR THIS MIGHT BE GENEROUS.
AFTER 72 HR...GAMMA SHOULD RAPIDLY LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS
AND ITS IDENTITY AS IT IS ABSORBED INTO THE STRONG BAROCLINIC LOW
OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE BAROCLINIC LOW SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO SWEEP
INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA...SO EVEN IF GAMMA TAKES A MORE EASTWARD
TRACK AS FORECAST BY THE GFS AND NOGAPS THE FRONT WILL STILL
PROBABLY CATCH UP WITH THE STORM.
Last edited by Brent on Fri Nov 18, 2005 3:45 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#8 Postby brunota2003 » Fri Nov 18, 2005 3:45 pm

The First Five Day Track for Gamma, and I'm in it... :( :grrr: :(
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#9 Postby mike815 » Fri Nov 18, 2005 3:46 pm

I KNEW IT WOW TRACK LOOK FERMILUR? LANDFALL ON A MON. TOO. HMM. so similir to wilma though it will be very much weaker it probably still will cause problems.
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#10 Postby jkt21787 » Fri Nov 18, 2005 3:46 pm

Brent wrote:GAMMA IS IN A RATHER HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT AT THIS TIME. SHEAR
ANALYSES FROM CIMSS AT THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN SHOW 15-25 KT OF
SHEAR ACROSS THE STORM...AND LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST THE SHEAR
TO INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE NEXT 72 HR. IN ADDITION...GAMMA
IS CLOSE TO A FRONTAL ZONE...AND THE FRONT WILL LIKELY BECOME
STRONGER AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES. THE GFDL MODEL CALLS
FOR GAMMA TO REACH 55 KT IN ABOUT 72 HR...WHILE THE SHIPS MODEL
BARELY STRENGTHENS IT DUE TO SHEAR. THE INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS
THE GFDL GUIDANCE AND CALL FOR A 55 KT INTENSITY IN 72 HR...
ALTHOUGH GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE SHEAR THIS MIGHT BE GENEROUS.
AFTER 72 HR...GAMMA SHOULD RAPIDLY LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS
AND ITS IDENTITY AS IT IS ABSORBED INTO THE STRONG BAROCLINIC LOW
OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE BAROCLINIC LOW SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO SWEEP
INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA...SO EVEN IF GAMMA TAKES A MORE EASTWARD
TRACK AS FORECAST BY THE GFS AND NOGAPS THE FRONT WILL STILL
PROBABLY CATCH UP WITH THE STORM.

Good job by Beven. Floridians should pay close attention to this portion of the discussion and not get overly excited over this.
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#11 Postby Damar91 » Fri Nov 18, 2005 3:47 pm

Welcome to our world! ( florida!)
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#12 Postby mike815 » Fri Nov 18, 2005 3:48 pm

Yeah i know this is still amazing. Think about it late Nov. And just the threat of a TS and the 3rd letter in the greek alphabet.
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#13 Postby cjrciadt » Fri Nov 18, 2005 3:51 pm

Image
First wind prob, looking at the bottom have for this storm
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#14 Postby Canelaw99 » Fri Nov 18, 2005 3:52 pm

:hoola: We've got Gamma! As long as it's a small trop. storm, if that and doesn't screw up my T-giving camping plans, I'll be ok :)
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#15 Postby Brent » Fri Nov 18, 2005 3:53 pm

Canelaw99 wrote::hoola: We've got Gamma! As long as it's a small trop. storm, if that and doesn't screw up my T-giving camping plans, I'll be ok :)


It'll be a very distant memory by Thanksgiving. :wink:
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#16 Postby Canelaw99 » Fri Nov 18, 2005 3:54 pm

Well, we already had to alter our location thanks to Wilma - grrr...Everglades parks were still closed last week. We're now going over towards Naples, so I don't want trees down, roads closed, etc., so I'm holding you to that Brent ;)
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#17 Postby schmita » Fri Nov 18, 2005 3:57 pm

Can someone give me the date "Backwards" Lenny hit us here in the islands? I believe it was around this time in November of 1999?
Thanks
irina
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#18 Postby Dick Pache » Fri Nov 18, 2005 4:00 pm

Roatan Island East of Honduras

Winds N to 40-45 MPH

Pressure dropping 29.583"

http://63.245.92.231/Current/Current_custom.htm

Thanks to Artist
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#19 Postby Cookiely » Fri Nov 18, 2005 4:01 pm

Gamma I sure wish you would come to Tampa because we can sure use some rain. Pretty please.
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#20 Postby Brent » Fri Nov 18, 2005 4:06 pm

schmita wrote:Can someone give me the date "Backwards" Lenny hit us here in the islands? I believe it was around this time in November of 1999?
Thanks
irina


November 13-21.

Image

6 years ago today it was sitting right over your head.
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