TD GAMMA,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[mike815]

it almost looks like. I dont think so though.

[brunota2003]

Is it me or does it appear an "eye" is forming just south of the blowup in convection?
http://www.ghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconusir.html

its called a "sucker" hole...

[aerojad]

I just made a forecast map with the NHC points with an overlay of the current water temps ahead of it. Looks to me like some strengthening is inevitable, with the warmest waters it will hit being right off the coast of South Florida.

http://www.secondpagemedia.com/confundo ... t&p=100718

[mike815]

"sucker" hole? lol yeah temps do suport a cat 3.

[x-y-no]

I just made a forecast map with the NHC points with an overlay of the current water temps ahead of it. Looks to me like some strengthening is inevitable, with the warmest waters it will hit being right off the coast of South Florida.

http://www.secondpagemedia.com/confundo ... t&p=100718

Warm water is only one of several factors, and some others (high shear and cool stable air over the Gulf) will act to prevent much strengthening.

[danman]

Ok, how exactly am I being biased?

In "Growing Concern For S. Florida and Possible Gamma" and "TD 27,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread". now lets get back to the topic at hand...

[aerojad]

I just made a forecast map with the NHC points with an overlay of the current water temps ahead of it. Looks to me like some strengthening is inevitable, with the warmest waters it will hit being right off the coast of South Florida.

http://www.secondpagemedia.com/confundo ... t&p=100718

Warm water is only one of several factors, and some others (high shear and cool stable air over the Gulf) will act to prevent much strengthening.

Yeah, thank goodness for that shear. I think in its 'best' case scenario, it may be able to eeek out 75mph winds and make Hurricane status, but that will probably be confined to an enlogated area on the east and north side of the center. I think this will end up looking more like a comma than a circular storm.

[Damar91]

Do you even know what biased means? Obviously not. Maybe when you actually go through what's in your avatar you can speak with some common sense.

[danman]

Do you even know what biased means? Obviously not. Maybe when you actually go through what's in your avatar you can speak with some common sense.

hehehe im glad you noticed my avatar, u were the first. lets not get silly, i dont mean to offend you. accept my apology. the time is comming

[Damar91]

Forget about it. Things just starting to get tense again.

[ronjon]

Gee, how's that for model consensus.

http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weathe ... orm_27.gif

[MiamiensisWx]

Gee, how's that for model consensus.

http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots/storm_27.gif

What is going on with the LBAR?

[fci]

Gee, how's that for model consensus.

http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weathe ... orm_27.gif

A hauntingly familiar model plot.
Rewind the calendar a few weeks......

Happily it is a weak TS we are looking at models for and not a Cat3/4 Hurricane.

[MiamiensisWx]

Yep... the plots ARE very similar to what they did for Wilma.

[johngaltfla]

You've got to bleeping be kidding me.

Sigh. Time to dig out the supplies and recheck everything...just in case it does a 1925.

[HURAKAN]

I think the NHC forgot that the advisories now are at 7 PM not at 8 PM EDT.

[arlwx]

27/Gamma. The wave that could.

However, a number of people in FL and Mexico/Cuba may be wishing it couldn't have.

[MiamiensisWx]

Even the National Hurricane Center's latest track is similar to what they did for Wilma...

[aerojad]

I think the NHC forgot that the advisories now are at 7 PM not at 8 PM EDT.

nahh, 8 eastern - 7 central

The only time it gets off is when a storm is going during the spring forward/fall back time.

[aerojad]

Nevermind, I just got corrected in another thread.

I apologize.