Gamma No Threat to FL

[Damar91]

So, anyway, what about Gamma? It looks to be getting a little stronger.

[MiamiensisWx]

Here is Gamma on the latest infra-red imagery...

[HURAKAN]

A LITTLE HOSTILITY IN THE AIR!!

NO ONE HERE IS DUMB OR SMART, EVERYONE IS CONSTANTLY LEARNING AND COOPERATING TO PROVIDE ACCURATE INFORMATION AS SOON AS POSSIBLE.

Please lets get back to the topic, in case you want to continue with this matter, do it privately, but this thread was created to discuss the real issue that a tropical storm could hit South Florida in a matter of days.

Thanks.

[Forecaster Colby]

*raises hand* But I'm smart!

[MiamiensisWx]

No complaining, Forecaster Colby!

*WINK*

[fci]

Understandable. I lost hundreds of dollars in food. Not to mention the severe damage to my car. However, these are all things that can be replaced. All of the family is fine and that's all that really matters. No need to be excited or panic stricken over Gamma however.

I'm reading this 1 1/2 hours after it posting and it probably has been commented about already.
But your loss of food and some damage to your car; though not to be dismissed; is minor compared to hardships others have, and are; going through.

When people barely have roofs on their homes and debris strewn about waiting to be airborne with 50-70 MPH winds; there is good cause to be at excited and perhaps a bit panic striken.

[TPAcane]

You know, the more I look at this situation, the more it reminds me of Wilma. I know there wan't 60-70kts of sheer, but the sheer was strong. I don't know, I hope I'm wrong. Weren't there alot of people that said Wilma would get sheered apart before it got here?

Damar,
The interesting thing about Wilma is that shear was supposed to be a major inhibiting factor. Turned out that the shear never really materialized and in fact it tapped into a 60-70kt jet that helped the storm intensify as it approached the coast, possibly making the backside the strongest side as it was still intensifying. Could this storm tap into a jet or interact with the strong front in a way that would enhance it, remains to be seen. Sometimes potentially damaging situations flip and wind up helping instead of hurting.

[fci]

Do some of you people even read the posts? Did I ever say Wilma would slam into Florida as a Cat 2. No, I did not. I simply meant the conditions were becoming awfully familiar. Maybe you should ask what is meant if you don't fully understand!

Eh, I might have somewhat blasted you for your earlier comments but I'm with you on this one. You never said this was a Wilma only pointed out similarities.

[Air Force Met]

The interesting thing about Wilma is that shear was supposed to be a major inhibiting factor. Turned out that the shear never really materialized and in fact it tapped into a 60-70kt jet that helped the storm intensify as it approached the coast, possibly making the backside the strongest side as it was still intensifying. Could this storm tap into a jet or interact with the strong front in a way that would enhance it, remains to be seen. Sometimes potentially damaging situations flip and wind up helping instead of hurting.

BIg diffs here though. 1) Wilma was a big system with a strong inner core that had been around for a while. This hasn't. 2) This is not just "shear," this is the jet and the convergent quad of the jet at that...which means you are piling more air in then normal. It won't enhance it. The right rear quad might...but not the right front quad.

[TPAcane]

BIg diffs here though. 1) Wilma was a big system with a strong inner core that had been around for a while. This hasn't. 2) This is not just "shear," this is the jet and the convergent quad of the jet at that...which means you are piling more air in then normal. It won't enhance it. The right rear quad might...but not the right front quad.

Thanks AFM,
If this does linger for a few days down off of the YP and establishes a solid core albeit not CAT5, will it be less affected by the convergent jet, and will forward speed help...

[dizzyfish]

Don't post much here...but here is my take...

I don't think anything will have time to linger we have a serious front coming down. If Gamma manages to get "caught" by the front then he will be drawn up and pushed out.

I know the people in SFL don't need any "weather" so........since we haven't had much rain (and we really need it) in my area - I volunteer to have some clouds and rain for you. (not being a smart butt here)

The timing will be real tricky. I have watched my point forecast and it has changed greatly in the last day or so. Don't freak - just stay in touch.

[Air Force Met]

Thanks AFM,
If this does linger for a few days down off of the YP and establishes a solid core albeit not CAT5, will it be less affected by the convergent jet, and will forward speed help...

Don't think it will linger much. The more it does linger though...the worse it will be for Gamma and the less Florida would have to worry because the flow would be even more westerly.

[HeatherAKC]

After Wilma, we were entering our "dry" season here in S. Florida. Hooray!

Just a few short days after Wilma though, after the damage had already been done and assessed, we had a few strong rain storms. Many structures and roofs failed then...not during Wilma, but then. My concern is for the poor folks who might fall victim to this type of scenario. It wouldn't take alot of rain and wind to really cause problems again around here. A strong TS could be devastating. Not particularly for me...my fence has already fallen, my satellite dish is still MIA, but for many other members of the community.

PS>>>>Throw that 20lb frozen Turkey on the BBQ NOW!

(Edit for spelling. A nice Merlot will do that to you!)

[jusforsean]

Yes, if someone spits i worry all that between me and gamma is blue tarp: Not GOOD!!!!!! I am holding off on the turkey buying hoping we at least have turkey to cook it itherwise i hope red cross serves it as there hot meal of the day:) I really cant believe we are going thru this again

[jusforsean]

Scratch that i am tired: Hoping we have power to cook the turkey... there thats better!

[Lindaloo]

AHEM!! Let's get back on topic. Thanks.

[Rainband]

AHEM!! Let's get back on topic. Thanks.

amen

[Air Force Met]

From the 10PM advisory...

THE WIND SHEAR WILL ONLY GET STRONGER AS THE TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER
THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. AND GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS.
THEREFORE... CONDITIONS DO NOT APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR SIGNIFICANT
STRENGTHENING... AND INTENSIFICATION TO A HURRICANE SEEMS RATHER
UNLIKELY IN THIS ENVIRONMENT. THE GFDL NOW FORECASTS LITTLE CHANGE
IN THE INTENSITY FOR THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS AND PEAKS AT ABOUT 45 KT.
THE SHIPS IS SIMILAR BUT FORECASTS A DECLINE AFTER 24 HOURS AS THE
SHEAR INCREASES. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS ADJUSTED
DOWNWARD COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...

Hmmm...sounds familiar.

Hey Boca Chris and Christy...told ya the GFDL was on crack [/b]

[mike815]

No it just doesnt handle shear very well. It is a great model.

[HalloweenGale]

Where do you think it will become ET?