TD GAMMA,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[Forecaster Colby]

What the heck is in the SE atlantic?

[mike815]

didnt look at the map lately whoa that shear is crazy bad.

[MiamiensisWx]

Look at the sharp boundary of convection on the eastern side...

[mike815]

hmmm....

[wxman57]

Here's a little better resolution image. I identify the center near 16.5N/85.5W, a good bit SE of the NHC's 9am position, but they did say that newer data indicated a center farther sotheast. Convection is moving toward 010 to 020 degrees (N-NNE) and separating from the center more. Doesn't look like a TS.

<img src="http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/gamma9.gif">

[mike815]

maybe. it does look that way.

[Forecaster Colby]

Yeah, that's dead.

[Air Force Met]

Yeah, that's dead.

Yep...it's SE of the NHC position and it's also stationary according to the vis loop. This this is going to die a slow painful shearing death.

Florida will get some showers from it. Maybe.

[HURAKAN]

I think that we are going to get more showers from the cold front than from Gamma.

[Forecaster Colby]

Yep. Recon found 46kt FL winds, so methinks it was stronger last night and has been weakening this morning.

[cycloneye]

WHXX04 KWBC 191727
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL STORM GAMMA 27L

INITIAL TIME 12Z NOV 19

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 16.7 85.8 330./ 4.1
6 16.6 85.9 240./ 1.3
12 16.7 85.9 315./ .8
18 16.9 86.3 301./ 4.1
24 17.2 86.2 11./ 3.2
30 17.8 86.0 20./ 6.4
36 18.5 85.8 17./ 7.4
42 18.8 85.7 21./ 3.1
48 19.7 85.2 27./ 9.8
54 20.6 84.0 53./15.1
60 21.4 82.2 68./18.6
66 22.0 80.3 71./18.0
72 22.5 78.2 76./20.0
78 23.5 75.8 67./24.2
84 25.1 72.9 62./30.7
90 26.7 70.0 62./30.7
96 28.7 67.2 54./31.5
102 30.6 64.2 58./32.4
108 32.5 61.4 56./30.3
114 34.2 59.7 45./22.6
120 35.9 58.5 35./19.4
126 37.7 57.8 21./18.8


12z GFDL moves Gamma NE well south from S Florida.

[mike815]

Yeah going to move threw the straits.

[wxman57]

The center is exposed and quite easy to see now. Looks to be near 16.2N/85.3W. I don't see much movement, maybe a slight NE drift. Convection is moving farther away from the center now. Certainly winds are only 10-15 kts around the center, but there could be some 30-40 mph winds in those squalls 100 or so miles to the north. The threat to south Florida continues to diminish. I doubt it'll even be noticed when it passes to the south.

<img src="http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/gamma10.gif">

[cycloneye]

57 noon CST advisorie confirms what you haved being saying about Gamma disorganized.

[wxman57]

Ah, just saw it. Looks like they're 0.1 degree too far east. It's a real stretch to call this a TS. A small pocket of 40-45 mph wind in a squall over 100 miles from the center is all it has. Most winds around Gamma are 10-20 kts. Definitely looking to be a non-event for Florida. But it's keeping me from driving to Mississippi tomorrow to paint my mother's house.

[Thunder44]

Yeah, that's dead.

Yep...it's SE of the NHC position and it's also stationary according to the vis loop. This this is going to die a slow painful shearing death.

Florida will get some showers from it. Maybe.

I think it will be quick. It won't even be a TD by tomorrow morning.

[StormSkeptic]

The surface obs comfirm this. The low is ESE of Roatan as evidenced by the NE and NNE winds there - with little change in direction this morning so not moving north much if at all. Latest Satellite images seem to show a slow East drift.

http://63.245.92.231/Current/Current_custom.htm

[cycloneye]

I am going to be bold and say that this will be downgraded by tonight or even later this afternoon.

[mike815]

I think it could but it might hang on.

[MiamiensisWx]

I think that we are going to get more showers from the cold front than from Gamma.

Don't expect our showery weather to end very quickly, however, in south Florida - even after Gamma and the supposed front.