TD/TS Gamma Recon Discussion

#141 Postby **HURAKAN** » Sat Nov 19, 2005 12:41 pm

BY HOW MUCH DO WE HAVE TO MULTIPLY TODAY?

Forecaster Colby · #142 Postby **Forecaster Colby** » Sat Nov 19, 2005 12:42 pm

.9, they're low.

#143 Postby **cycloneye** » Sat Nov 19, 2005 12:43 pm

HURAKAN wrote:BY HOW MUCH DO WE HAVE TO MULTIPLY TODAY?

They are flying a little less than 300m so it's 70% reduction.

#144 Postby **cycloneye** » Sat Nov 19, 2005 1:11 pm

URNT12 KNHC 191805
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 19/17:43:30Z
B. 16 deg 14 min N
085 deg 12 min W
C. NA mb NA m
D. 50 kt
E. 10 deg 076 nm
F. 039 deg 046 kt
G. 010 deg 077 nm
H. EXTRAP 1005 mb
I. 19 C/ 212 m
J. 25 C/ 214 m
K. 23 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345/ 1
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF300 0427A GAMMA OB 07
MAX FL WIND 46 KT NW QUAD 17:06:50 Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 1500 FT.

First message out.

#145 Postby **P.K.** » Sat Nov 19, 2005 1:26 pm

Did senorpepr not say yesterday it was more like 80% from this height? He gave a figure of around 83% for 300m but as we are at 210m it will be higher than that.

#146 Postby **cycloneye** » Sat Nov 19, 2005 1:31 pm

P.K. wrote:Did senorpepr not say yesterday it was more like 80% from this height? He gave a figure of around 83% for 300m but as we are at 210m it will be higher than that.

Since they are flying at 1,500ft, the conversion should be near 80% Therefore, 49kt*80%=39.2KT

The above is what senorpepr said about the conversion.

#147 Postby **P.K.** » Sat Nov 19, 2005 1:34 pm

Later on he corrected himself though:

Right... but I made an error... they are flying at 1,000ft, not 1,500ft. That may make the conversion a little different... like 83%...

I'm not sure how much those distances are (Imperial measurements don't mean anything to me) but they are flying lower than yesterday so it would be less of a reduction than before.

#148 Postby **cycloneye** » Sat Nov 19, 2005 1:37 pm

Yes P.K. more lower less reduction.

Forecaster Colby · #149 Postby **Forecaster Colby** » Sat Nov 19, 2005 2:02 pm

I thought the normal 950mb reduction was .9? 850=.8, 700=.7 as far as I knew.

#150 Postby **P.K.** » Sat Nov 19, 2005 2:08 pm

Looking at the nearest sounding to this system from 12pmGMT 200m is more like 985hPa. That certainly is sounds about right. 950hPa is around 500m up. If it is a 90% conversion from 950hPa it would be higher then in this case.

Forecaster Colby · #151 Postby **Forecaster Colby** » Sat Nov 19, 2005 2:10 pm

Did anyone notice the 6 degree C thermal eyewall? :hmm:

thunderchief · #152 Postby **thunderchief** » Sat Nov 19, 2005 2:20 pm

#153 Postby **cycloneye** » Sat Nov 19, 2005 2:34 pm

URNT12 KNHC 191923
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 19/19:13:40Z
B. 16 deg 16 min N
085 deg 10 min W
C. NA mb NA m
D. 50 kt
E. 267 deg 008 nm
F. 004 deg 045 kt
G. 267 deg 024 nm
H. EXTRAP 1004 mb
I. 22 C/ 206 m
J. 24 C/ 209 m
K. 24 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345/ 1
O. 0.02 / 3 nm
P. AF300 0427A GAMMA OB 10
MAX FL WIND 49 KT NW QUAD 17:53:50 Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 1500 FT.

Another vortex.

rainydaze · #154 Postby **rainydaze** » Sat Nov 19, 2005 2:41 pm

Did anyone notice the 6 degree C thermal eyewall?

What does that indicate or mean ? I'm just curious because that is something I haven't seen pointed out before...so I will get to learn something new

Forecaster Colby · #155 Postby **Forecaster Colby** » Sat Nov 19, 2005 2:55 pm

rainydaze wrote:
Did anyone notice the 6 degree C thermal eyewall?

What does that indicate or mean ? I'm just curious because that is something I haven't seen pointed out before...so I will get to learn something new

The higher the temp difference between eyewall and eye, the stronger the storm. 6 degrees is normally indicative of a Cat 1-2 Hurricane. Strongest I've ever seen was 21, with one the cat 5's this year.

Vandora · #156 Postby **Vandora** » Sat Nov 19, 2005 3:00 pm

Forecaster Colby wrote:The higher the temp difference between eyewall and eye, the stronger the storm. 6 degrees is normally indicative of a Cat 1-2 Hurricane. Strongest I've ever seen was 21, with one the cat 5's this year.

What exactly could that mean about Gamma? Or is it just another, "it's 2005" thing? :grrr:

Forecaster Colby · #157 Postby **Forecaster Colby** » Sat Nov 19, 2005 3:01 pm

Vandora wrote:
Forecaster Colby wrote:The higher the temp difference between eyewall and eye, the stronger the storm. 6 degrees is normally indicative of a Cat 1-2 Hurricane. Strongest I've ever seen was 21, with one the cat 5's this year.

What exactly could that mean about Gamma? Or is it just another, "it's 2005" thing?

I don't know. Since the thing doesn't seem to even have an eyewall...WTF?

#158 Postby **cycloneye** » Sat Nov 19, 2005 9:32 pm

Plane is flying towards Gamma right now.Will it find a weaker system or about the same as now?

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