What will Dr Grays first 2006 forecast numbers be?

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cycloneye
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What will Dr Grays first 2006 forecast numbers be?

#1 Postby cycloneye » Mon Nov 21, 2005 7:43 am

He always start in the lower end of the numbers in his first outlooks in early december.

I say that he will have for his first 2006 outlook 13/7/3.

What do you think he will have for his first forecast?
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#2 Postby dizzyfish » Mon Nov 21, 2005 7:47 am

14/6/3
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#3 Postby DESTRUCTION5 » Mon Nov 21, 2005 7:48 am

15/7/4
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#4 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Nov 21, 2005 8:05 am

15/8/4

Then, he would probably increase the numbers.
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#5 Postby vbhoutex » Mon Nov 21, 2005 8:25 am

16/7/5
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#6 Postby mascpa » Mon Nov 21, 2005 8:51 am

17/8/3
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#7 Postby boca » Mon Nov 21, 2005 8:53 am

16/8/4
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#8 Postby wxmann_91 » Mon Nov 21, 2005 11:00 am

13/7/3
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#9 Postby JtSmarts » Mon Nov 21, 2005 12:30 pm

14/9/3
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Forecaster Colby

#10 Postby Forecaster Colby » Mon Nov 21, 2005 1:21 pm

16/8/3
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#11 Postby Scorpion » Mon Nov 21, 2005 3:53 pm

13/9/4
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#12 Postby WindRunner » Mon Nov 21, 2005 4:14 pm

14/7/3
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#13 Postby brunota2003 » Mon Nov 21, 2005 4:18 pm

10/6/2
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#14 Postby skywarn » Mon Nov 21, 2005 6:22 pm

14/8/3
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#15 Postby senorpepr » Mon Nov 21, 2005 6:46 pm

Well, here's some data for y'all:

From 1950 through 2000, the average numbers for tropical storms, hurricanes, and major hurricanes, respectively, were 9.6/5.9/2.3.

From 1995 through 2005, minus the el Niño year of 1997, the numbers were 15.5/8.8/4.4, pending no further activity this year.

From the same time period, there were no less than 12 tropical storms in a given year, but no more than 24.

There were no less than 4 hurricanes, but no more than 13.

There were no less than 2 major hurricanes, but no more than 7.



So.... take that for what it's worth...
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Matt-hurricanewatcher

#16 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Mon Nov 21, 2005 9:10 pm

19/10/6 :)
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Forecaster Colby

#17 Postby Forecaster Colby » Mon Nov 21, 2005 10:34 pm

My prediction is somewhat above the mean in each range...seems reasonable.
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#18 Postby quandary » Mon Nov 21, 2005 10:58 pm

senorpepr wrote:Well, here's some data for y'all:

From 1950 through 2000, the average numbers for tropical storms, hurricanes, and major hurricanes, respectively, were 9.6/5.9/2.3.

From 1995 through 2005, minus the el Niño year of 1997, the numbers were 15.5/8.8/4.4, pending no further activity this year.

From the same time period, there were no less than 12 tropical storms in a given year, but no more than 24.

There were no less than 4 hurricanes, but no more than 13.

There were no less than 2 major hurricanes, but no more than 7.



So.... take that for what it's worth...


Do the maxes really have to be quoted? They're all 2005. :roll:
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#19 Postby senorpepr » Mon Nov 21, 2005 11:34 pm

quandary wrote:
senorpepr wrote:Well, here's some data for y'all:

From 1950 through 2000, the average numbers for tropical storms, hurricanes, and major hurricanes, respectively, were 9.6/5.9/2.3.

From 1995 through 2005, minus the el Niño year of 1997, the numbers were 15.5/8.8/4.4, pending no further activity this year.

From the same time period, there were no less than 12 tropical storms in a given year, but no more than 24.

There were no less than 4 hurricanes, but no more than 13.

There were no less than 2 major hurricanes, but no more than 7.



So.... take that for what it's worth...


Do the maxes really have to be quoted? They're all 2005. :roll:

There is no reason not to quote the maxima. However, to blow your skirt up, the maxima, excluding 2005, would be 19, 11, and 6, respectively. (Not all that much differenence to 2005, except for named storms)
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#20 Postby NCHurricane » Mon Nov 21, 2005 11:40 pm

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