95L C Atlantic,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[Forecaster Colby]

Guess not. My first advisory on it (not endorsed by Storm2K, nor official)

Subtropical Storm 29AC
Advisory 1 - 1:30PM EST November 22, 2005

The large and powerful extratropical gale in the open atlantic has become more organized today. Satellite imagery and analysis indicates a warm-core subtropical cyclone with winds to 40kt...so advisories are being initiated on Subtropical Storm 29AC. The intensity of 40kt is based on both the very low 985mb pressure and Dvorak intensity estimates of 35kt. The system has been steadily strengthening over the past couple of days...and is likely to become fully tropical, and then quite possibly a hurricane. The storm is at a rather unusual latitude for November...about 32N, which is normally far too cold for tropical development. The low has been nearly stationary for the past six hours, but is drifted southwest.

The track forecast is a bit difficult due to the lack of model runs and steering features...but calls for a slowly accelerating motion to the SSW through 48 hours, followed by a more southerly track as a strong extratropical low approaches from the west. For this advisory...no forecasts will be issued past 72 hours, owing to both my lack of skill in forecasting subtropical systems and lack of other information.

The intensity forecast calls for slow strengthening as a subtropical system for the first 48 hours...followed by a transition to fully tropical and faster strengthening through the remainder of the forecast period. If the system transitions to tropical sooner, intensification should be a bit slower due to the cold waters. However...if the motion southward is faster than anticipated...strengthening to a hurricane is possible within 36 hours.

The system is not currently expected to be a threat to land areas.

Initial: 31.5N 40.5W 40kt...subtropical
12 Hour: 31.0N 41.0W 45kt...subtropical
24 Hour: 30.0N 41.5W 50kt...subtropical
48 Hour: 28.0N 41.5W 55kt...becoming tropical
72 Hour: 26.0N 41.5W 65kt...tropical

[HURAKAN]

[MiamiensisWx]

[HURAKAN]

[HURAKAN]

CONVECTION NOW ALL AROUND THE CENTER.

[wxmann_91]

CONVECTION NOW ALL AROUND THE CENTER.

And moving southward!!!

[cycloneye]

HURAKAN so far no signs that at 4 PM EST they will classify it as no models nor any NRL change of headers haved occured so far this afternoon.

[CHRISTY]

trying to organize....

[senorpepr]

It's a shame we won't be able to use all the Delta Airlines jokes in association with recon...

[cjrciadt]

This is how 45kt, 982mb "Delta" looks like.

[Forecaster Colby]

Looking good, more and more tropical all the time. And these stupid storms seem to want to deny us all the good jokes:

"Gamma waves"
"Delta airlines"

[Forecaster Colby]

Nothing @ 4...the 5PM TWO will be a broken record, I'll bet.

[mike815]

yup just like a broken record.

[brunota2003]

do u like broken records??? I dont, but here we go again...:

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico...

a strong and large non-tropical low pressure system over the central
Atlantic centered about 1000 miles southwest of the Azores
Islands is drifting southward. This system is gradually acquiring
tropical characteristics and could become a tropical storm at any
time. Additional information on this system can be found in high
seas forecasts issued by the National Weather Service...under AWIPS
header nfdhsfat1 and WMO header fznt01 kwbc.
Elsewhere...tropical storm formation is not expected through
Wednesday.
Forecaster Pasch

[Hurricanehink]

Wow, it looks like it has an eye. Come on NHC! You've upgraded worse in this area.

[fci]

It's a shame we won't be able to use all the Delta Airlines jokes in association with recon...

No, but when you start referring to "changing" atmospheric conditions you can refer to the delta in conditions for Delta!

Sort of like Franklin authoring discussions for Franklin earlier this year!

[tropicana]

I think they are hoping it just goes away....so they can go home and be with their families for Thanksgiving.

-justin-

[P.K.]

Interesting to note that from the 12pm GMT model runs looking at the phase diagrams none make it more warm cored than it is at the model initialisation.

[HURAKAN]

7:05 PM EDT TWD:

CENTRAL ATLC 986 MB LOW IS NEAR 31N40.5W DRIFTING SOUTHWARD.
CONVECTION HAS BEEN WRAPPING AROUND THE CENTER AND INTENSIFYING
DURING THE DAY. IN ADDITION THE LOW HAS BEEN SEPARATING FROM
THE OCCLUDED FRONT TO THE NORTH. A STORM WARNING IS IN PLACE
FOR WINDS OF AT LEAST 50 KT WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE LOW HAS BEEN
GRADUALLY ACQUIRING TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AND COULD BECOME A
TROPICAL CYCLONE..."DELTA"... OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
SCATTERED WEAK TO MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75 NM OF THE
CENTER... STRONGEST IN THE NE QUADRANT.


Interesting how they are already mentioning "Delta."

[Anonymous]

It could become a Hurricane Delta, IMO. We saw it happen to Hurricane Noel in 2001.